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마이클 버리의 과거 적중(2008 서브프라임 CDS)과 최근 실패(테슬라 공매도 손실, 게임스탑 숏스퀴즈 손실, GME 전량 매도 후 급등)를 정리하며, 그의 역발상 투자가 패시브 투자 확산과 개인투자자 영향력 증대 속에서 약화됐다고 주장. 버리가 QQQ·SPY 풋옵션을 보유한다는 13F 내용도 언급하나 예측 발언은 아님.
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have you ever wondered if you have a secret ability to predict the future well Michael bur seems to possess this ability but not just for random events so seeing the economy on the verge of collapse I did the logical thing I sought to profit from it he is known for predicting economic downturns and capitalizing on them specifically I set out to buy credit default swaps on subordinated tranches of subprime Residential Mortgage back Securities however his recent track record suggests that his luck may have run out join me as we explore the Journey of his fall from making groundbreaking economic predictions to whatever he is involved in now but before we delve into that please take a moment to like subscribe and hit the notification Bell so you never miss out on any of the latest information on investments and the economy so let's buckle up and dive into today's fascinating topic as many of us already know Michael B is an American investor and hedge fund manager who gained recognition for his ability to identify emerging market trends and make contrary investment decisions so Michael bur famed for predicting the 2008 financial crisis in a big short has positioned bearish bets against the US Stock Market he purchased put options against $739 million in Invesco QQQ trust ETF shares and 886 million in spdr SMP ETF shares signaling a a possible Market downturn bur bets indicate a defensive stance as put options increase in value with declining stock prices while exact amount risks aren't disclosed due to filing limitations bur previous high profile predictions lend attention to his Market actions despite a history of accurate predictions such as shorting tech stocks during the doc bubble some bets like his short position on Tesla in 2020 have misfired bur's recent options moves against the market could be part of a broader strategy that isn't fully evident from the filings Tom some of the key highlights of bur's career include founding his own hedge fund Scion capital in 2000 through his meticulous research-driven approach he was able to generate strong returns in hundreds of Millions for his investors over the years so you made a ton of money made a ton of money much more than I ever imagined you know I'd ever have were your clients grateful I think a lot of clients were just glad to be done with it at the end you know we we even though they doubled their money well we we made 725 million I think on the funds in 2007 and in the first 6 months of 2008 there was about 730 million in withdrawals bur's ability to foresee the impending subprime mortgage crisis and profit handsomely from it cemented his reputation as a Visionary investor he capitalized on a market event that caught many by surprise well Michael bur interesting guy a lot of credibility subject to The Big Short he was in there um prominent figure and he's known as a contrarian and a contrarian looks for markets that are out of sequence or that are overcooked and they play against him just like you might call him a bear and so he has a history of this looking for overcook things bur's story and his role in predicting the 2008 crisis were later chronicled in the book and film The Big Short further raising his profile as an unconventional yet insightful investor with something called a credit default swap it's like insurance on the bond and if it goes bust you can make 10 to1 even 20 to1 return and it's already slowly going bust 10 to1 20 to1 wait and no one's paying attention but how long did this superpower last in 2019 bur took a significant short position against Tesla betting that the electric vehicle Company's stock would decline um the Tesla shares they are higher today marginally but they're no longer the Wall Street darling they once were they're down a third since the janary peak um over the last two years this huge renoff now I suppose we can say one shouldn't be surprised they're down after that runoff but I'm wondering what do you see in Tesla that Michael also sees yeah I mean look right now it's a glass half empty view on the street and I think you've seen across all electric vehicle stocks but of course Tesla being the poster child of momentum you know right now especially on the chip shortage you know you're starting to see the Bears pile on and I think that's all resulted not just an evaluation compression but I think a lot of Skeptics thinking that this is the start of a structural downfall for Tessa but remember we were here 3 years ago and we were here 5 years going it's our view it's hard to bet against a trillion dollar EV Market however Tesla's stock price continued to Surge in the following years defying bur's expectations and resulting in substantial losses for his fund right but but what what are you what would the market be basing a structural downfall on Tesla is making cars admittedly it's had a few problems in China but it's making cars that are exceptionally profitable sorry exceptionally popular and are now starting to become profitable so where is that structural downfall shorting high growth disruptive companies like Tesla can be particularly challenging as their stock prices can defy traditional valuation metrics and continue to rise for extended periods bur's inability to accurately predict the trajectory of Tesla's stock price highlights the difficulties in involved in betting against Innovative companies that are transforming their respective Industries bur also had a short position in GameStop the struggling video game retailer prior to the unprecedented stock price surge in early 2021 Michael Barry still would have made absolutely squillions because in 10 trading days the stock ramped up by 1,6 42% I mean it's hard not to make a stack load of cash when a stock that is your biggest holding in your portfolio does that on you in 10 days and this is where unfortunately our story becomes very very sad especially for Michael bar because he has missed out on the whole thing because as of the Q4 20203 F filing for Scion Asset Management that was released to the public literally like 2 days ago so this is brand new information to us un fortunately he sold 100% of his GameStop position in Q4 of 2020 he sold the whole lot his largest position in his portfolio he sold all of it before this massive runup even began no imagine imagine how you'd feel he must feel absolutely horrible the GameStop stock price unexpectedly surged due to a short squeeze driven by a coordinated effort by retail investors on social media platforms like Reddit take a look at that that stock though and it had been up when Sarah was doing it at the top of the show 110% yeah the meme trade may very well be back roaring Kitty remember that name of Wall Street bets Fame he's returned and shes of GameStop are up as a result stocks been halted seven times since trading got underway just that's just in 45 minutes so this short squeeze caught Bur Fund in the midst of the unexpected rally leading to significant losses as the GameStop stock price skyrocketed the GameStop event demonstrated the increasing influence and unpredictability of retail investor behavior in the markets which can disrupt traditional investment strategies and assumptions this underperformance suggests that bur's contrary and value oriented investment approach may not be as effective in the current market environment which has been characterized by the dominance of growth stocks and the rise of passive investment the shift towards passive investing and the popularity of growth stocks have presented challenges for investors like bur who focus on identifying undervalued opportunities bur's failure to adapt his strategies to keep Pace with the Market's changing Dynamics has contributed to his recent underperformance one reason why I believe bur is not performing well in his predictions is that the financial landscape has evolved significantly here's what I mean the financial Market markets have undergone significant changes since the 2008 crisis several key developments have reshaped the investment landscape potentially posing new challenges for investors like bur The increased popularity of passive investment strategies such as index funds and ETFs has altered the Dynamics of the market this shift towards passive investing has reduced the influence of actively managed funds and individual stock Pickers potentially diminishing the effectiveness of Bur more focused approach additionally commission free trading platforms and the rise of online investment communities have empowered retail investors to play a more active role in the markets the influx of individual investors each with their own biases and investment strategies has introduced new complexities and unpredictability to the market ecosystem the financial markets have become more interconnected with global events and policies having a greater impact on asset prices and volatility this increased interconnectedness makes it more challenging for investors to isolate and predict specific Market events as they must now consider a broader range of factors and their cascading effects bur has maintained a reputation as a thoughtful and unconventional investor who is willing to go against the grain of conventional wisdom his Investments have been driven by meticulous research and a willingness to take contrary positions which have at times proven to be remarkably preent however the evolving Financial landscape presents new challenges that may require adaptations in his investment approach hey everyone thanks for following along what are your thoughts on Michael bur do you think he's still the legend he once was or has his Luck run out let me know in the comments thanks for watching and don't forget to like subscribe and hit the notification Bell for future investment updates see you in the next one you proba thought you'd lost your mind I think I think I know for sure that some of them thought I lost my mind
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