저자: DanIves · 외국인
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기술주 하락 원인과 전망에 대한 Dan Ives의 견해 연준이 금리 인상 시점을 앞당긴 것에 대해 그는 시장 기대보다 현실적인 수준이라 평가하며, 이를 기술주에 대한 위험자산 선호의 청신호로 해석한다. 그는 기술주가 하반기에 15% 상승할 것으로 보며, 나스닥 연말 목표치를 16,000으로 제시한다. 클라우드, 사이버보안, 전기차, 이커머스 등 구조적 성장 요인을 근거로 든다. 마이크로소프트는 올해 300달러 이상 가능성을 언급하며, 클라우드 전환에 따른 2조 달러 규모 지출이 MS·아마존·구글·IBM에 수혜를 줄 것으로 본다. 도큐사인, 지스케일, 크라우드스트라이크 같은 고성장주는 비싸지만 성장으로 밸류에이션을 따라잡을 것이라 본다. 애플은 아시아 공급망 점검 결과 슈퍼사이클이 내년까지 이어지고 서비스 부문 현대화가 진행 중이라 본다. 반독점 소송(Epic)은 주가 15% 부담 요인이나, 7월 실적이 시장 예상을 크게 상회할 것이며 1년 내 시총 3조 달러 가능성을 언급한다. 테슬라는 단기 소화 기간을 거치고 있으나 중국 6월 실적이 견조하다며 목표가 1,000달러를 유지한다. 전기차 시장은 아직 초기 단계라고 본다. 하드웨어 비중을 줄이고 소프트웨어·사이버보안·클라우드 비중을 늘릴 것을 권하며, IBM은 하이브리드 클라우드 집중으로 재평가될 수 있는 종목으로 제시한다.
다듬은 글
tech stocks moving lower as a group yesterday after the fed brought forward its timeline for raising interest rates a bit while the nasdaq recovered most of its losses by the end of the session you can see big tech stocks are in the red again this morning joining us now dan is wedbush securities managing director of equity research talk about the outlook uh for this group dan good morning to you i you know i could see uh you know being bullish on tech maybe after a period of underperformance in the last nine months and because maybe valuations are more reasonable but why would what the fed suggested yesterday being incrementally more hawkish be a net positive for the tech group yeah i i ultimately think this the least puts out the realistic goal post for the fed and i think better than most tech investors were hoping for and that's why we view this as sort of a green light with risk on assets across tech space we think tech stocks are up 15 second half and you look at the underlying growth that's transformational cloud cyber security you know ev e-commerce but it's kept a cap on it over the last four or five months now i view this as sort of a risk-on moment and so the biggest opportunity right now that we see given our view 16 000 nasdaq end of the year what what about the very largest nasdaq stocks though are necessarily reflective of a risk-on environment i asked that because these are big financially stable companies they're kind of in the quality category uh super profitable much more stable than the average company and then off to the side you have a lot of the more maybe earlier stage you know down the road they're going to be profitable but not right now it seems like those are two different animals yeah i think you gotta put them in two different buckets when you look at microsoft as an example part of why we think that's north of 300 hours this year and the streets still massively underestimating this digital transformation in terms of move to cloud we think 2 trillion is spending and that's going to benefit not just the likes of microsoft amazon google even ibm and others now when you look at the hyper growth stocks some names like docusign z scale or crowdstrike it speaks to what i view as sort of a golden age for cyber security and cloud so those stocks they're going to be expensive but i believe they continue to grow into the valuation i think you've seen more and more at least i've seen from my conversation the appetite for risk on go in the second half of the year i look at yesterday and that was sort of what i've used for the green light to now for this next stage higher despite the haters continuing to hate in tech what about apple what do you think has been kind of restraining that stock for a little while uh and and how does that kind of story and the perception of it change yeah and that's sort of been on a treadmill because i think most investors think the best in the rear view mirror but i continue to look at our checks in asia this super cycle is going to continue well into next year and i think the modernization story on the services is just sort of in that middle inning of playing out now i do think the anti-trust you got the epic court battle i know right now that's about 15 overhang in the stock but i think we're sitting here late july when they come out with those numbers handily beat the street i think ship shortage a bit overstated for apple and all the supply chain checks continue to give us confidence a year from now there's a three trillion dollar market and just to hit on on tesla just for a stock that obviously has had to give back a lot of last year's massive gains looks like it's a little bit caught in between there's a lot of excitement elsewhere and ev going on right now uh where's the field position in that stock yeah i think digestion period you have from all different angles gm ford about has done a great job you got vw and others so i think the streets digesting just more and more competition but when i look at tesla it's a five trillion dollar green tidal wave over the next decade they're going to continue to lead that charge despite all the skeptics i do believe china continues to show strength in the month of june and going into second half and that's another one that's why we have a thousand dollar price target on tesla i think there's just a painful digestion period rather than the end of this bull cycle just given where we view ev still in kind the first second inning of playing out any uh slices of tech you feel like still are a little bit treacherous or not as well advantaged here yeah to me it's hardware i mean i think i see more and more from our cio and conversations i t manager you're seeing more and more move away from hardware towards software cyber security cloud i'd be underweight some hardware pieces and more bullish on software and that's why i see a lot more of the next gen technologies going and even look at ibm more and more focus on cloud i think that could be potential re-rating story oh ibm focus on cloud being uh being a net positive because it's de-emphasizing hardware exactly i mean look i'm not going to compare it to microsoft and the della golden touch but look what happens in an ibm and they're starting especially in the hybrid cloud benefit more and more that could be a re-reading stock as we get closer and closer to sort of the splitting of those businesses and i think arvin is sort of in the middle of what potentially could be a pretty significant turnaround at ibm that's one i'd watch out for
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