저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 파월 연준의장의 발언은 시장에 큰 충격이 아니며, 저금리 기조 유지와 완만한 인플레이션 용인을 택했으므로 연준 영향에서 벗어난 산업재·기술주 중심 매수 기회로 본다. 연준 회의 직후 시장 반응: 다우 266포인트 하락, 특정 종목 약 0.5% 하락 등 제한적 조정으로 평가. 파월 발언 해석: 경제는 좋아지고 있으나 흑인·히스패닉 등 소외 계층이 남아 있어 금리를 낮게 유지해야 하며, 물가가 과도하게 오르지 않는 선에서 약간의 인플레이션은 감수 가능하다는 입장. 공급 부족 문제: 공급 병목은 시간이 지나면 자연 해소되며, 억지로 긴축해 수백만 명을 실업시키는 것은 과도한 해법이라는 논리. 금리 인상 전망: 2023년 하반기 금리 인상 점도표는 경기가 계속 좋을 경우의 가정일 뿐이며, 연준이 향후 2~3년 계획을 미리 정할 필요는 없다고 봄. 연준 평가: 과거 2018년 금리 인상 발언 실패 후 파월이 겸손해졌으며, 인플레 매파 주장은 과거 예측이 계속 빗나가 신뢰도가 낮다고 비판. 투자 전략: 연준이 향후 6개월 이상 방향 제시를 자제해 시장 변수에서 빠지므로, 저금리 환경에서 실적 상회 가능성이 큰 산업재와 기술주 매수 권고. 래리 윌리엄스의 차트 분석을 인용해 단기 하락 후 매수 타이밍을 언급하며 다음 주 전 재매수 가능성 제시. 리스크: 인플레이션이 예상보다 지속될 경우 연준 긴축 가능성은 남아 있음. 출연자 전망: 시장 참여자들의 연준 해석 오류로 조정이 나타날 수 있으나, 파월의 조심스러운 태도로 경기 회복 국면의 산업재 강세가 이어질 것으로 봄.
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homework a p teach put it all in context so call me at 1-800-743-nbc or tweet me at jim cramer the market rolled over after today's fed meeting dow slipping 266 points ssb losing 0.54 that's not declining only 0.24 but what did you expect i'm not surprised by what happened today i'm surprised that other people are surprised and that's my take on what the federal reserve did today jay pal didn't lower the boom on the stock market he simply acknowledged what you and i know already business is really good getting better a lot of stimulus around but it's still not good enough because too many people are being left behind especially african americans and hispanics so as the chairman said interest rates need to stay low but not so low that they drive up prices too much too quickly a little inflation is a good deal if it means we can get a lot more people hired well we've got some shortages right now for certain you can hear about that later tonight powell knows he can't stop he can't stop those shortages without throwing millions of people out of work which is a pretty severe solution for a problem that will ultimately solve itself emphasis on ultimately but sometimes common sense shocks people what is the fed chairman supposed to be oblivious to the state of the economy well that would make him a fool j pals don't fool the jackals want to trip him up but he refuses to give them what they want the idea that pal needs to figure out the game plan for the next two or three years right at this very moment is also absurd when the fed pencils in those two potential rate hikes in the second half of 2023 they're basically saying hey we got a real good economy and if it stays this way good well if it stays this way yeah maybe we have to tighten in a couple years all right we'll do it here's the irony if powell had said and i quote we don't see strength we're worried about unemployment and there are no shortages end quote people would be freaking out right now because it would look like the fed chief had lost his mind on the other hand if he said okay the economy is overheating it's time to taper bond purchases and raise interest rates end quote well that would have made him look equally foolhardy and oblivious and oblivious fed ultimately leads to lower stock prices fortunately unlike his critics pal knows what he's doing the media in that sense is a watershed powell's left himself a lot of flexibility he said i quote we are a ways away end quote from taking action quote but we're making progress end quote i i don't know why why that surprised people if you thought we weren't making progress toward full employment i i have only one question what are you smoking maybe you should give the guys at mind med a call because you're hitting the psychedelics a little too hard and if you thought we were making too much progress well then you know what you really are living in a hawkish fantasyland so what does this mean for the market how do you adjust your portfolio first arguably you don't need to do a thing earlier this week i highlighted some work from larry williams the technician i swear by he warned us of a late june swoon well guess what like i said on monday if you're nimble and you like to trade you can take something off the table as long as you're ready to buy it back before the end of next week the charts say don't buy don't buy and i give them more weight than the spots and dots that everyone's obsessing from for the fed i took that course by the way i aced it now second the fed basically did nothing today except take itself out of the equation for the next six months that was it that means you should buy stocks that can deliver better than expected earnings in a low rate environment the reporters are all trying to get pal to commit to some silly timeline some timetable that would wreck the economy and probably not stop inflation he's not playing that game though he wants people to make a little more money who said wage inflation is a bad thing most people except ceos in this country are underpaid he knows there are imbalances in the economy shortages because business didn't realize we beat the pandemic this quickly and there's been a huge amount of stimulus but as pal said and i quote there's a big group of unemployed people end quote and he doesn't want to leave them behind just to please billionaires oligarchs kleptomaniacs and useful idiots in the media who want higher rates these inflation hawks are like the boy who cried wolf they spent decades warning that hyperinflation is always right around the corner they've been wrong every time when powell mistakenly listened to them in 2018 he nearly wrecked the economy before he changed course now we actually do have some inflation but the hawks no longer have any credibility in my eyes now i know some reporters will look at today's negative action and jump to the conclusion that the fed's getting ready to take away the punch bowl couldn't be more wrong pal knows that demand for goods is very high he knows that people are spending without taking down a lot of debt those are both good most importantly he thinks the sources of inflation could abate on their own shortages ending stimulus running out rate abatement you know red abatements winding down kovid going away so he'd rather wait and see that then start tightening you know what it's called what he's doing there's a word for it's called prudence i like prudence especially when it comes to your money i think there are a lot of grizzled financial veterans who can't believe their eyes right now because they're so used to the fed operating in a completely different way pal doesn't want to operate that way anymore he thinks we can have strong job growth and strong spending without causing too much inflation something by the way we didn't see in 2019 in other words pal believes we can have some key lime pie and have a decent size but not two big piece smaller piece if that's the case then i think you should simply stay the course maybe using this decline to buy some high quality stocks especially the industrials right into the teeth of a downturn we anticipated here with the help of larry williams with the fed taking itself out of the equation for at least six months maybe longer the industrials have a lot more room to run the problems by the way i include the techno technology stocks with the industrials the problem right now is that the experts from the economist to the reporters who follow the fed to the hedge fund managers who trade off the fed's moves see they they just can't seem to grasp that jay pal just isn't one of them never mind that he was a private equity guy he's like no other fed chief i can recall pal actually learns from his mistakes in 2018 he listened to the inflation hawks and spoke glibly about the need for three rate hikes that blew up in his face he quickly had to change course since then he's approached his job with a sense of humility he reiterated that today he knows that it's hard to predict what the economy will do so he wants to err on the side of a strong labor market even if it means we have a little more inflation yet how's pal's different he isn't the tin man fed chief like his predecessors he has a heart that's very hard for money managers to gain because it's unprecedented they're used to fed chiefs who say hmm the economy is getting real good let's make it really bad let's hurt the working man pout just won't do that for my whole adult life the fed had a zero tolerance policy toward inflation but if you'd elevated unemployment as a necessary evil pal has flipped that around he has a zero tolerance policy toward high unemployment and he views inflation as a necessary evil he's a central banker who actually cares about human beings of course lots of very rich people don't like the pal has a heart they hate inflation especially wage inflation so they want to rip his heart out like the great scene in indiana jones and the temple of doom bottom line sorry pal's heart stays in his chest and unlike his critics he's got a brain to
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