Mohamed El-Erian: This week's Fed meeting is a test over 'inflation as transitory' narrative

요약 보기

결론: 연준이 '인플레이션은 일시적'이라는 내러티브에 갇혀 있어 통화·재정 정책 조합을 재조정해야 하며, 정책 과열 리스크가 크다. 경기 상황: 경기는 내리막이 아니라 오르막에서 가속 중이며 회복 모멘텀이 강화되고 있다. 통화정책과 재정정책이 모두 완전 가속(pedal to the metal) 상태라 과열 위험이 있다. 정책 리스크: 통화정책 효과가 예전만 못한 상황에서 이 정책 조합을 유지하면 바이든 행정부의 재정 인프라 개혁이 밀려날 수 있다. 정책 조합을 재조정하는 것이 필요하다. 연준 전망: 연준은 긴축을 급격히 하기보다 완화 부양(monetary stimulus) 페달을 조금 떼는 수준을 논의하는 것으로 보인다. 그러나 연준은 '인플레이션은 일시적'이라는 입장, 테이퍼링 논의 회피, 과거 수요 문제에 맞춘 후행적 통화 프레임워크라는 세 가지 함정에 빠져 있어 출구 전략을 취하기 어렵다. 시장은 매일 나오는 지표와 무관하게 연준이 완화 기조를 유지할 것으로 편하게 보고 있다. 개별 뉴스: 노바백스 백신 뉴스는 백신 효과 확인이라 좋은 소식이지만 이미 시장에 반영된 것으로 본다. 영국의 델타 변이 확산으로 존슨 정부가 재개방을 진행하기 어려운 상황은 주시해야 한다. 비트코인: 일론 머스크의 발언이 비트코인 가격을 10% 이상 움직일 수 있을 정도로 영향력이 크다. 비트코인은 채택(adoption)과 규제 사이의 줄다리기이며, 머스크는 채택 측면에 큰 영향을 준다. 테슬라의 결제 수용 발언 변화가 화폐로서의 채택 인식을 바꾸고 있다. 출연자 전망: 연준의 완화 기조 유지가 시장에 우호적이라는 인식이 우세하며, 재정·통화 과열 리스크를 경고하는 입장이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Welcome back to Squawk Box this morning. Investors will be paying extra close attention to this week's Federal Reserve meeting. In a new op-ed this morning, our next guest says the event has turned from a snooze fest into a test of the Fed's control over the narrative that the current bout of inflation is only transitory.

02. Joining us right now is Allianz Chief Economic Advisor, Mohamed El-Erian. He also is president of Queens College, Cambridge. Good morning to you, Mohamed. Let's talk about this Fed meeting, but let's also talk about what I think is the second to last paragraph in that op-ed, which is the implications of the Fed on the Biden administration and the policy and infrastructure policy and everything else that we're going to see or not see as a result.

03. Thanks for having me, Alisha. So, think about the economy has gone from going uphill to going downhill. It is gathering momentum. The recovery is gaining. And now you have a situation where both monetary and fiscal policy are pedal to the metal. So, they're accelerating into something going downhill.

04. Which means that there is risk of overheating everywhere. Now, if you continue with this policy mix, there is a risk that the fiscal, which involves major reforms, gets crowded out by the monetary that's no longer having the impact it used to have. So, the right thing to do right now is to recalibrate that policy mix.

05. If you don't, the Biden reforms may be sacrificed. Okay, but then the question is, Mohamed, okay, so so you're Jay Powell, you're not you're supposed to be acting independently. And this goes to the whole idea you're supposed to be acting independently of the administration or of Congress. Do you say, "I'm going to put the brakes on over here because I think that these folks over here are going to actually press on the accelerator" or you have to wait for them to press on the accelerator over here, if you will, on on infrastructure or whatnot, and then I'll put the brakes on?

06. So, they'll say we have to wait till they press on the accelerator and then we'll put we won't be put the brakes. No one's talking about putting the brakes on. In fact, you want to avoid a slamming of the brakes. What we're talking about is easing your foot a little bit off the monetary stimulus accelerator.

07. But they are now in a trap. They're in a trap because of three things. They've repeated over and over again with enormous conviction, inflation is transitory. Secondly, they've repeated over and over again they're not thinking about thinking about tapering. And thirdly, they've got a backward-looking new monetary framework, which made tremendous sense when there was a problem of aggregate demand, but doesn't make sense when there's today a problem of aggregate supply.

08. So, it is very difficult for them to exit from a paradigm that they've created themselves. That's why the marketplace is very comfortable that despite everything we're seeing every single day, the Fed is going to remain pedal to the metal. Right. Mohamed, two very quick questions news in the headlines.

09. One, this Novavax news. Is it already priced in the market because it's great news, but you would have thought the market would have moved on it already and it doesn't appear to be moving. No, because I think we've we've embraced this notion that vaccines are effective and that just confirms it and it's wonderful, wonderful news.

10. I think keep an eye on what's happening here in the UK, this new variant and the fact that the that the Johnson government feels that they cannot go forward with reopening because of this new Delta variant. That's something to keep an eye on. And then just give give us your 30-second take on Elon Musk and Bitcoin.

11. One man and one can move the price of Bitcoin more than a 10%. Yeah, of course, because it's suddenly adoption suddenly adoption is favored again. So, remember, it's a tug-of-war between adoption and regulation. And and and Elon Musk has a huge influence on the adoption side of that equation. But did he say something you think that was fundamentally different than what you had heard before?

12. Yeah, because people doubted him when you know, first he said that that Tesla would accept it as a form of payment, which implies a currency. Then he said, "I'm not sure if we will." And now he's saying, "Yes, we will." So, yes, I mean he he is influencing this whole notion that it is a currency and it will be adopted by the private sector. .