저자: DanielZambrano · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 2022년 11월 기준 기술주 전반에 부정적 전망을 제시하며, 아마존·구글·메타·마이크로소프트 등 주요 기술주가 핵심 지지선 이탈 위험에 있다고 주장. 아마존: 2015년부터 약 8년간 유지된 상승 추세선이 실적 발표 후 이탈했다고 주장. 81달러 재방문 가능성을 언급하고 80달러 부근을 바닥 후보로 봄. 현재 약 180~187달러 수준에서 하락 가능성을 제시. 투자 권유가 아니라고 명시. 구글: 87달러 지지선 이탈 시 76달러 재방문 가능성 언급. 2020년 가격 수준으로 되돌아간 상태라고 설명. 메타: 과거 추세선 이탈 후 하락이 가팔라졌다고 설명. 약 11달러 수준이며 12달러 부근 지지선 회복 시도 중, 주간 저점 8달러 언급. 최고점 대비 83% 하락했다고 주장. 애플·테슬라: 각각 137달러, 200달러 부근 지지선을 유지 중이라고 설명하나 테슬라 지지선은 확신이 낮다고 언급. 마이크로소프트: 녹색 추세선 이탈 후 약 288달러에서 220달러로 하락. 220달러 지지선 회복 시도 중이라고 설명. 나스닥: 2009년 이후 상승 추세 채널 하단 근처인 248달러 부근 재방문 가능성을 언급하며, 반등하지 않으면 더 낮은 채널 하단까지 열려 있다고 주장. 변동성: VIX(공포지수)가 2008년 위기 당시 패턴과 유사하게 움직이고 있으며, 단기 VIX 하락 후 급등 가능성을 언급. 2008년 위기 수준과 비교하며 불안감을 표명. 리스크: 투자자들이 이미 여러 차례 하락을 겪어 추가 하락 시 대규모 매도(항복)가 나올 수 있다고 경고. 마무리: 시청자에게 텔레그램 채널 가입 및 주식투자 세미나 참여를 유도.
다듬은 글
Hello, hello, how are you? Here in Zambrano, and today we're going to talk a little bit about the stock market, the somewhat negative outlook we 're seeing with some tech stocks, and what might be coming, looking at it from a somewhat negative perspective. I'm in a hospital storage room, you might ask why, but I apologize for the audio, video quality, and setup.
Okay, let's start this video. What else? To begin, let's look at some tech stocks that are being hit hard, like there's no tomorrow, literally. Let's talk about Amazon very quickly. Amazon had a trendline, that is, an upward trend, which you can see perfectly since 2015 and the beginning of 2014. We can see this blue line, which it had been respecting for about eight years, and this week, what we see is that it broke with the earnings after trading.
This blue line broke, which is good. We'll probably be seeing Amazon revisit $81, given that the break of this trend was very strong, and we'll surely be looking for a bottom. It would probably be $80, and after that, well, we'd have to reevaluate. But it's something that's a very important line I was following with Amazon.
It broke this week. Today is very important. We see Amazon going from being worth around $180-$187 to probably around $80 soon. It's not an investment recommendation, no, but that's what it is, folks. Looking at Amazon, we also have Google. We have Google trying to break the $87 floor, this red line that we see perfectly here.
If it breaks it, we would probably be visiting $76, which are levels. This situation is n't as bad as Amazon, maybe, but it has fallen a lot. We're practically bringing it back to 2020 prices. One trend line that can indicate how it's growing is difficult to mark, but we could do it here. Perhaps we also have, well, the winner of the drops, Meta.
This is an example of that trend line I'm mentioning with Amazon Meta. A few months ago, it broke the trend line, which was... Blue, if you remember, Amazon had an upward trend that just broke. And since that break, we've seen a much steeper drop. Visiting levels, man, probably from around $70, it started trading at approximately $8 in 2018.
Right now it's costing $11, dude, $11, imagine! Look, this whole drop broke the floor of practically $11.67, approximately $12, it 's trying to recover and hit the floor this week or last week at $8. We saw a child that at its highest point to date has fallen by no less than 83%. It's almost a meta, you know.
Apple has held, Apple has held, these are doing better. We have a Naples floor, I don't feel 137, we have a Tesla floor at practically the same $ 200 floor, it's respecting it, it's very similar to Apple, right? But well, there it is, there it is, but I'm not very convinced by that floor. It's really consolidating too much there, it should have bounced.
And Microsoft, which we often forget to check, is indeed breaking, or trying to break, and is trying to reclaim the same $220 floor. Microsoft also broke this trend line, which is here in green, which we can see very clearly. When it breaks, it tends to fall. The green trend line was broken. When it broke, the stock was approximately at $288, and now we are at $220.
That's the index, the one that replicates the Nasdaq. The cuckoo clock, what we can see in a more distant chart, is that someone is entering the deposit here. We have a very cool trend, which is this white line. Sorry I 'm moving the camera, but let's follow that trend. White data has been there for a while now, since approximately 2009, which was the ceiling of this growth trend of the Nasdaq.
And you see, we are about to visit those levels here at $248. That is, let's see if it bounces, and if it doesn't bounce, we will perhaps be visiting that, it's a kind of channel, the floor of the channel, which is much lower than... I hope I don't use it, I mean, I hope we don't get to that point, but I want you to understand that there's an important trend here in this area.
Boom, here you fill one on this white line. Maybe it's looking for a bounce, but maybe not. This is the Bix. There are two lines, the blue and the white, right? The blue is the 2008 Vix, and indeed, when the 2008 crisis hit very hard, when the economy went down, that's the blue. And the white is today's Bix.
Now, what they're talking about here is that there's a certain consistency between the blue and the white. There are certain oscillations that are very similar, and there comes a point where the blue spikes, and people are saying, well, the Vix might fall for a few days, a week. And maybe we can see that we do indeed see a spike in the Bix because we have the 2008 Bix as a reference, which was the ultimate crisis.
Very interesting, very, very interesting. So, some people see this as the calm before the storm, and we'll see if they're right. Well, man, it does n't look very good. I don't know, guys, we're... And this thing is moving. This graphic is what I want to share with you, and I'm sure I've already shared it with you.
But again, you have to keep this in mind. I don't know, it would be a little ugly because many people are already thinking, " Well, we're going to rotate," or they've been hit with so many falls, and this would be the final straw. This would be when I see the person on the ground, they hit them and don't stop.
That would be the final straw. That would be madness. Uff, that's it. What a shame about the video quality. What a shame. It's the one that moves, everything is doing its best, 100% recursive. And I hope you liked this video. You know what to do if you liked it: click on the Telegram link in the description to invite us to our three-part seminar to start investing in the stock market. Ready? A big hug. Don't panic, dude. What am I doing here?
Comments 0