저자: Zach및패널발언자 · 외국인
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레이 달리오는 비트코인이 성공할수록 규제당국이 결국 이를 '죽일' 것이라고 반복해 주장하지만, 패널은 이에 대체로 회의적이다. 달리오의 주장 배경: 그는 과거에도 같은 취지의 발언을 여러 차례 했고, 최근 1년간 최소 4차례 정부의 금지 가능성을 언급한 것으로 확인된다. CNBC 출연에서도 이 주장을 되풀이했다. 패널의 반론: 비트코인을 '완전히 죽이는' 메커니즘이 무엇인지 불분명하다는 지적이 나온다. 보유·거래를 어렵게 만드는 것은 가능하지만(SEC 등의 압박), 전면 금지는 미국 성인 약 17%의 보유자와 비트코인 옹호 정치인들을 고려하면 실현 가능성이 낮다고 본다. 공격 경로 논의: 양자컴퓨팅으로 알고리즘을 깨는 방식, 중국식으로 채굴을 압박하는 방식 등이 언급되지만, 양자컴퓨팅은 아직 실재하지 않는 위협이며 이에 대한 방어책도 연구 중이라고 설명한다. 역사적 관점: 대안 화폐는 역사적으로 정부에 의해 억압되어 왔고, 비트코인의 핵심은 중앙 발행주체가 없어 탈중앙화되어 '차단 불가능'하다는 점이라고 주장한다. 정부는 성장 속도를 늦출 수는 있어도 완전히 없앨 수는 없으며, 규제가 강화될수록 음성 시장과 프라이버시 코인의 중요성이 커질 것이라는 전망이 제시된다. 투자 관련 가격 예측은 거의 없고, 비트코인에 대한 장기적 구조 관점 위주의 토론이다.
다듬은 글
ray dalio says that if bitcoin is really successful regulators will kill it and this is something that he has said many times in the past he's reiterating that here uh ray dally obviously he's the founder of the world's largest hedge fund bridgewater associates and he believes that regulators will ultimately take control of bitcoin if the cryptocurrency gains mainstream success uh i don't think he's too far off the mark there um but there's a lot of questions about how this could happen and whether this would ultimately kill bitcoin or not obviously i i don't think that something decentralized can be completely shut down but i'll throw this to the group to get your your take and then i'll i'll add my thoughts so zach i'll throw it to you stop yeah for sure so no shade on cnbc uh but you know rage alia was on cnbc's air they wanted to showcase that appearance uh we like we had someone look into this yesterday and write this up and i was like i swear i've heard that exact same headline like three times and i and i found like at least two times where ray dalio has said the exact same thing and the reporter actually found four times in the last year where he said hey governments are gonna ban this thing um so it does seem to be a preoccupation of dalios uh you know he's noted as a really uh you know smart guy who thinks about markets in complex ways and so people sort of tend to uh respect his viewpoints on things i mean he pens like long emails and uh has some really strong viewpoints on where things are going in the economy writ large he also owns a little bit of bitcoin he sold uh coindesk's consensus conference this year which is also notable um but he's still i think very uh uh drawn to this idea that uh bitcoin may be a victim of its own success should it continue to threaten governments in the way that it does i think the question i want to ask is like this what is the mechanism that he is alluding to where a government could kill bitcoin i think a government could make it more difficult to acquire and hold but kill i don't know would that be like sort of like a quantum computing attack or just nuking all of the mines i don't know what it would look like so i just want to ask like the technical question i'll touch this to will if a government were to kill uh bitcoin as ray dalio is saying is possible what would that even look like yeah there's smart critiques of bitcoin and there's poor ones i think this somewhat falls in between it's hard to understand what ray is saying with uh like killing bitcoin itself there are ways to attack bitcoin and like certainly like you brought up quantum computing which doesn't really exist as a thing yet but would say in 50 years it does exist and you can somehow break the algorithm that's behind bitcoin that would be one way to kill it there's already people thinking about how to protect bitcoin in that instance um to kind of go over to like the mining side there you could kind of clamp down like china did on bitcoin miners and make life really uncomfortable for them to be able to mine well there's other people planning to kind of work with that and then on the like banning uh bitcoin just holding it or exchanging it we're already seeing that the sec and and others are making it uncomfortable for people to do so on on some level but it certainly doesn't seem like there is a larger impetus from regulators and lawmakers to make that a thing across the board i think about 17 of americans hold bitcoin nowadays it's a sizable constituency and it'd be pretty tough to go against all those people especially when there's elections every two years and there's also a lot of noted uh senators congressman and regulators who hold bitcoin themselves or our bitcoin advocates so i don't necessarily agree with him on this i don't think regulators are going to do that i think they might have an interest but it's probably a little bit too late to attack it in that sense also it's really uncertain what killing bitcoin means like what you said zach like you can't just shut down this network that's the whole point of it don't name it i'll throw it to you yeah so we should look at the history of private monies alternative currencies because literally the history of alternative money is the government continually shutting down anything that competes with their uh sovereign currency and so the whole reason bitcoin was created is okay we know the government is going to attack this we know the government will feel threatened by this and will not want this around how do we create something that we can withstand that and we haven't been able to do it previously because if you have like a physical currency you need you have a counterparty you have like a centralized entity that needs to issue this thing it becomes very easy for a government to target that and shut it down and throw the ceo in jail or whatever and we even had digital iterations of competing currencies before the cypherpunks worked on a lot of different ones and again governments didn't like any of them some of them shut down just because they failed in other ways but a lot of them were targeted by governments as well and again it's because we hadn't figured out this decentralized component the bitcoin revolution is because we finally have a money that can't be shut down we finally have a money that is decentralized so um i mean that doesn't mean that the government can't target this before when we had private banks issuing notes the government's just taxed them out of existence and you know now they're trying to do it the same thing with cryptocurrencies with you know sec is coming down hard the irs is coming hard all these regulatory agencies are finding ways to target bitcoin and it is going to dampen it so they really can throttle this they can make adoption move slower but this is our inevitable future the internet is moving faster and faster towards a decentralized model where there are less and less gatekeepers we're figuring out the technology in order to decentralize all of that power in all aspects of our digital lives and currency is definitely part of that so yes the government can try and attack this and it can throttle it for a while but they're not going to kill it and even if they do get like mainstream people saying oh i don't really want to touch this even if they make institutional players say oh this is too risky for us as a company to hold this if the government doesn't like it this was popularized on the dark web this was popularized on the fringes of society it's going to continue to be popular there and the more that governments put regulations in place the more of our economy becomes dark markets you know the more that they say well you can't eat a hundred dollars in a start-up because we consider that illegal in america okay so people are just going to do that in a way that can't be shut down and i also think that this means that privacy coins are going to become increasingly important it may not just be bitcoin that is our decentralized future there are other currencies there that give us more privacy and if the government does clamp down on this people are going to want to keep their financial uh financial activities more private and we'll probably start diving into all of that
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