📉 Economic Alarm: Bill Gross Predicts Slump due to Overpriced Stocks & Bonds

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결론: 빌 그로스 발언을 인용해 주식·장기채가 고평가돼 경기 둔화(슬럼프)가 올 것이라는 진행자의 견해를 전하며, 자체 아웃라이어 데이터는 S&P500 매도 신호를 가리킨다고 강조. 빌 그로스 발언 요지: 주식이 위험 없는 자산 대비 너무 비싸고, 장기 채권도 고평가됐으며, 금리 인상의 지연된 효과가 소비를 위축시켜 경제가 둔화된다는 내용. 금리 메커니즘 설명: 금리가 오르면 채권 가격은 떨어지는 역의 관계이며, 연준이 인플레이션 억제를 위해 금리를 올려왔다고 설명. 주택 예시로 금리가 약 3배 오르면 같은 집 대출 상환액이 약 2.5배로 늘어 구매자가 줄어든다고 제시. 진행자 전망: 자산 가격이 너무 빨리 올라 아무도 살 수 없는 상황이라 가격이 하락 압력을 받을 것이며, 이른바 '고무줄 효과(rubber band)'로 급격한 디플레이션과 대량 해고, 소비 위축의 악순환이 올 수 있다고 봄. 연착륙(소프트랜딩)은 이루어지지 않을 것이라는 견해이나 본인도 그렇게 되기를 바란다고 말함. 아웃라이어 데이터: S&P500에 6월 23일 매도 신호가 나왔고, 최근 시장이 크게 흔들리고 있다고 언급. 공개 데이터이며 과도한 공포는 불필요하나 주시할 것을 권고. 홍보성 멘트: 영상 스폰서 outlier.com 및 구독·좋아요 요청이 반복됨. 리스크: 발언은 2023년 8월 기준 과거 시점의 전망이며 구체적 목표가나 기간 수치는 제시되지 않음.

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01. foreign bill or Bond King Bill gross warns stocks are dangerously overvalued and predicts an economic slump in the near future that doesn't sound good anytime you hear the bond King speak everyone should listen well my name is Christopher Ewell and I appreciate you listening to today's outlier live and uh I love talking about stocks and finding those outlier trades with outsized returns and if you're interested in that too be sure to definitely hit the Subscribe button down below and today's episode is sponsored by outlier.com go to ovtlyr.com to find out why outliers win now he says that stocks are overvalued and that um there is an economic slump in the near future let's see what it goes on to say here he says that stocks and long dated bonds are overpriced in the US economy will slump stocks are too pricey relative to risk-free assets and the Pimco co-founder expects a delayed impact of interest rate hikes to temper customer spending let's talk about interest rate hikes so when interest rates go down the price of bond or I'm sorry when rates go up the price of bonds goes down they have an a perfectly inverse correlation and uh rates have been going up because the FED has decided that they're going to raise rates to fight off inflation now why would they do that right a great example is to go look on um Zillow or look on any sort of um real estate app right now and look at how expensive houses have gotten okay now keep in mind interest rates during this time that they've gone up since probably last time we looked maybe in 2020 maybe in 2019 um the interest rates have nearly tripled so it costs three times as much to finance that house the house may have doubled or even tripled during that time so what would have been let's call it a thousand dollar payment is now something like a twenty five hundred dollar payment which is going to price out tons of buyers who say I can't afford this I could have afforded it a thousand dollars when the the price was so much less and when interest rates were so much lower but now that the price is doubled or tripled interest rates have tripled this is outside of my price range I cannot afford this so the only way for this to work the only way for the inventory to move is for prices to come down that is exactly how raising rates causes inflation to come down because if the price of the assets going up that's inflation but you can't get any customers when it's priced so high so they're gonna have to start bringing the price of the assets down in order to sell them in order to stimulate some growth in the economy to make things actually move so it's not good right the whole economy right now is really teetering on an edge um me personally I'll give you my personal uh personal take on this I think what we're about to see is a rubber band effect I think what we've seen is that prices have moved too far too fast on basically every asset out there and nobody can now afford them I say nobody but I mean it's it's a lot worse than it used to be right so what I think is going to happen is that let's say you're in a neighborhood and five houses are for sale now well when 10 houses get for sale because of Life circumstances the people who are selling the original five they're going to be scrambling they're going to say oh I can't sell my house for a million dollars anymore what am I gonna do well I'm gonna have to lower the price and so they're gonna lower it to 800 000 and everybody in the neighborhood and now all 10 houses that they have to compete with they're gonna say we're gonna have to lower our prices too so now million dollar houses are now down to eight hundred thousand and then when they are all our 800 000 the buyers are saying to themselves hmm if they're lowering prices from a million 800 000 we could probably stick this out another month or two but the buyer I'm sorry the sellers they're looking at it like what are we gonna do we got to move our we got to go move today I mean we're we're late already we got to move today so we're gonna lower our house to 700 000.

02. so everybody in the neighborhood is going to lower their house to 700 000. and then we're going to have real deflation and what happens which sounds great it sounds great on paper but by having deflation we're going to be having a a an economy that's basically shut down we're going to be having Mass layoffs we're going to be having um all of these consumers saying I'm not buying today prices are coming down why I'm gonna hold this out a couple weeks or so maybe maybe a couple months prices are coming down people are getting laid off because the companies can't sell at the same volume that they were and then it's a whole spiral downward negative impact thing and I think that actually may be what's going to happen I hope not but I don't think the soft Landing that they're wanting is going to happen I think there's going to be a huge rubber band effect and uh that's not going to be quite so good now let's take a look at the outlier data on the S P 500 yeah S P 500 we got a sell signal back on June 23rd and it's definitely definitely starting to catch up and the uh the market has really really been taking it on the chin lately um and you know you would have known that ahead of time had you taken a look at the outlier data which is a publicly available for you over at outlier.com so don't get too scared but do be sure to keep your eye on what's going on out there and keep an eye on the outlier data it'll tell you what's going on out there a lot easier than trying to follow every single person to follow every single Bond King to file every single Reddit post you can just follow outlier.com so thank you all so much for coming to today's outlier live be sure to hit the Subscribe button and the like button down below because we want to make sure that we are taking care of you and giving you all the actionable information to help you find out find out how outliers win