Jim Cramer: How short sellers are fueling the stock market rally

요약 보기

2020년 2월 4일 증시 랠리는 금요일 낙폭 이후 코로나19 관련 악재에 공매도를 크게 걸었던 헤지펀드들의 숏 스퀴즈(환매수)에 주로 기댄 것이라는 진단이다. 중국의 대규모 유동성 공급(약 710억 달러 추가, 기존 1,700억 달러 이상)이 시장 심리를 바꿨고, 실제 매도 물량이 부족해 S&P 선물 매도가 멈추자 상승이 이어졌다고 설명한다. 카지노(라스베이거스 관련주)는 공매도 베팅과 달리 기존 주주들이 크게 동요하지 않았고, 매도 압력도 거의 없었다고 언급했다. 나이키는 중국 경기 둔화로 공매도하기 좋은 종목이었으나 이틀 연속 상향 조정을 받았고, 신임 CEO 존 도나호의 개인화 전략이 강조되었다. 랄프로렌은 공매도가 많았지만 인스타그램 등 온라인 판매 성장과 중국 노출이 적다는 점에서 실적이 좋게 나와 주가가 9% 급등했다고 평가했다. 클로록스는 다수 애널리스트가 비중축소를 권했으나 예상보다 좋은 실적으로 숏 포지션이 큰 손실을 입었다고 설명했다. 테슬라는 2분기 연속 흑자 전환 이후 공매도 세력의 최대 악몽이 되었으며, 주가가 887달러로 107포인트 상승했다. 로드 발셀 등 유명 투자자의 목표가(1조 달러) 언급이 있었다. 헤지펀드들은 포트폴리오 헤지를 위해 숏 포지션을 유지하는데, 이들이 패닉을 기대하며 매도하던 세력이 사라져 오히려 랠리의 연료가 되었다는 결론이다. 결론적으로 이번 상승은 펀더멘털보다 숏 커버링과 유동성 요인이 주도했으며, 공매도 세력이 패닉을 기다리는 구도가 역전되었다는 분석이다. 이 영상에서 특정 대상 자산(삼성전자, 금, 비트코인 등)의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측 발언은 확인되지 않는다. 테슬라 주가 상승 흐름과 공매도 압박에 대한 긍정적 언급이 있었으나 향후 방향 예측으로 보기는 어렵다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Oh how much of this huge moved today was this gigantic short squeeze you got understand so much at today's rally took place on the backs of hedge funds who were poorly positioned going into the sell-off on Friday they overcompensated by shorting anything related to the coronavirus right into the teeth of the downturn they took place those sales in the midst of panic now the short sellers didn't count with China pouring seventy one billion into the financial system today on top of more than 170 billion yes you all order pop-up asset prices which then ripple around the world more importantly though they didn't imagine that there might not be any sellers real sellers to speak of instead we really only had sellers of the SP futures and they stopped once we got a sense that the Chinese have gotten the situation I guess I could say under control it looks like China will be back to work next week and that's huge without the pressure from the S&P futures there just wasn't much actual stock for sale as opposed to short sold stock let me give you some examples let's say you bet against them to see those stocks with lots of mchale exposure like when in Las Vegas says wagering that they'd have to shut themselves down the face of this outbreak rationale right well do you know anyone who made that bet was right that the casinos would shut down there was just one problem it didn't seem to hurt the stocks when the Long's the current shareholders saw the news they didn't freak out like the short sellers needed it many of those owners by the way are index funds and they never sell anyway others probably think the worst is over they looked through the Gulf either way it's extraordinary that something bad happened to these McHale gambling names and there was a shortage of major sellers that's new or take Nike now here's one that seemed like an obvious loser from the corona virus epidemic try as one of Nikes largest suppliers also fabulous marketing them if the Chinese economy is in trouble shorting Nike should have been like shooting fish in a barrel right I mean talk about an obvious short then you come in Monday and the stock gets not one but two upgrades then you find out that new CEO John Donahoe late of ServiceNow fame is coming in to speak to large accounts this week he's also going on camera with us to explain what's happening in China I'm sure of what's happening around the globe but mostly I think about the rise personalization and I'll let his use technological edge is crushing everybody the virus a good short spoiled consider Ralph Lauren the apalis pace had been one of the best shorts in this more holes may 6th Macy's got a big meeting tomorrow better go well target they've all been weak then PVH supported a good quarter nobody care so shorting Ralph Lauren talk about our way up nope CEO Patrice lavae has reinvented the business selling more product over the internet especially via Instagram in the but what are the forlorn snap deceiving what was once a drawback Lauren's lack of China exposure what's becoming first year as a virtual they don't have a lot of China exposure the company reporter fantastic number this morning a stock surged 9% what they call their elevated brands having terrific sell through I was quite impressed okay then there's one you know look at this I mean this thing is still trading like a wild man Clorox many analysts have an underperformer cell rating on the stock yeah so you imagine with Clorox with better door I mean what do they think it but just a lot of shorts in it with a short see see added that there's a lot of cells and other performs around Wall Street they figure they got a nice loser on their hands and quarks hasn't had the best track record play oh but not this time not this time the company delivers a better-than-expected quarter its box five percent the shorts scalded father there's the electrical for the room yes of course I have mentioned in 30 seconds Tesla which just keeps flying and flying in flight this is supernatural frankly it is it's not of this world another 14% today ever since Tesla reported a profit two quarters ago busting the bear thesis it's been a short sellers worst nightmare by the way Jimmy chilled nailed this thing about 600 points ago but people will feel an II's late 600 points let me tell you kill is chill remember when you short something you need to borrow the spot before you can sell it to someone else but with Tesla there's been a shortage of stock define there's so many short sellers so when you hear a legendary guy like rod barrel on squall this box this morning he's kept in this thing from the get-go and he uses a trillion dollar target you better believe you're gonna get a classic the brokers have no choice but close at your position and this is what's known as a piety and it's happening every day in Tesla you can tell because the stocks up really big before the market opens that's the brokers buying it in the shorts is keep getting squeezed out until some national sellers finally service they haven't appeared yet even appear eight hundred and eighty seven dollars it's an increase of a hundred and seven points although it did trades in 968 intraday where all these short sellers coming from okay lots of hedge funds like to have short positions as a hedge against their long so I like to run a mutual book okay they've dedicated short buddy means they have to have some shorts and that's where the real damage is being done there's shorts are getting in the holiday because they have that shorts and now there's they've become rocket fuel for the market they are desperate for something bad to happen anything you know what they're just doing they just need panic they're pooping you will panic but you know they're the natural sellers from last Friday suddenly they're nowhere to be found [