Jeffrey Gundlach: Fed has to raise interest rates if it wants to get inflation to 2%

요약 보기

Warsh 연준 의장의 기자회견 후 시장 반응을 분석. 연준이 2% 물가 목표를 강하게 말하지만 실제 행동(금리 인상)이 없어 신뢰성이 떨어진다고 평가. 상품 지수는 전쟁 영향으로 강세, 헤드라인 PCE는 3%대 중반에 머물러 올해 3.5% 아래로 내려가기 어렵다고 봄. 장기채 금리 상승(2s30s 스프레드 확대)은 채권시장이 연준 말보다 행동을 요구하는 신호로 해석. 9월 금리 동결 가능성에 의문을 제기하며 금리 인상이 필요하다는 입장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Now, let's bring in Jeffrey Gundlach. He is the CEO, CIO, and founder of DoubleLine. He joins us now from Los Angeles. Welcome back. Good to have you. Good to be back again, Scott. Uh I hope you had a nice week off last week. I did. I did. And it's good to be back in the seat and and visiting with you.

02. I I would have hated to to miss that. I I'd love to begin with um with your reaction. As I mentioned, you know, there was no move in rates, but there was still plenty of drama in what Chair Warsh talked about. What was your reaction? Well, he said the word family fight a lot of times, and he also said 2% very, very definitively.

03. I gave him a little bit of pushback last meeting when he talked about the left of the decimal point has to be a two. Uh and now he's really sharpened that point up and says, "No, that's not it at all. It's really two." Um so, I really thought the most interesting thing about the press conference, though, was I'm going to say that the real takeaway that I'll remember is, "What are you waiting for?" Which one reporter actually said directly.

04. And then another reporter later in the press conference basically asked the same question. Like, what what's going on? It sounds like you're planning on making a plan. I get that. You've got this task force. You're You're You're talking a lot about your a lot about inflation and the employment is just taking care of itself, I guess.

05. But one of the things that he did say is he's getting information from the market. And I'm going to talk about that, what happened during that press conference. But first, I want to say what happened since the last meeting. The number one performer of of broad asset classes was the commodity indexed since the last press conference, up 3.5%.

06. Then MSCI Europe, then the dollar, then the Dow Jones Industrials, then amazingly bank loans because there's some stress in the bank loan market at the particularly at the AI level. And then everything else is down. High yield is down, the bond market is down a little bit on the aggregate market, the S&P is down, Bitcoin is down, and then you've got EM emerging markets are really down, but that's really driven by Korea, which has been all of all over the place.

07. But during the press conference, you know, you started out with a pretty flat yield curve relative to recent history, and the yield curve did nothing but steepen during that press conference. The two-year rates dropped, and the long-term interest rates actually went up by, you know, about 10 basis points or so.

08. And now the yield curve, which was down at 77 basis points, twos to 30s, is up at 94 basis points, which is a very large move. So, I think the market is looking at this and saying, "He's talking a lot, and he's talking about questions that he's asking, and he's going to figure out what the real inflation outlook is when we adjust for shocks, and are those shocks moving into other areas of the inflation market where they don't really seem to be adjacent to those shock areas?" And I think the answer to that question is it seems to be, because the commodity index just continues to be the top performer.

09. In fact, since the December Fed meeting, the top performer is the Bloomberg commodity index of all these asset classes that we follow, which is up 23%. And of course, the war is not going away. When this war broke out, everyone was saying it was going to be short-lived, and I just said, "Every war that I've experienced begins with the troops will be home by Christmas." And here we are over 5 months into it, and it doesn't look like there's a lot of progress being made.

10. And so, we have oil, West Texas Intermediate, back, you know, up about $5 or $6 today, heading higher, and it seems that we're running low on on stockpiles. The Strategic Reserve has been drawn down quite substantially over the course of this uh war and we're talking about hearing about problems in Russia and China.

11. And so I think that the inflation rate is not going to go to two unless they start raising interest rates and not by 25 basis points and he is committed to that so forcefully that I wonder if he'll be able to keep rate stable in September. Well, so so are you suggesting that they should have raised rates today?

12. In the context of his vehement statements that they're going to get to 2% and he didn't mention a specific index, but I think we mean that the the CPI, maybe the CPI core, probably the PCE would be the top one. And the and the PCE is not close to 2%. It's about double 2% on the headline and it's still in the mid 3s and with the construct in the commodities market where it is now, I think that we're not going to get a headline CPI below 3.5% for the remainder of this year.

13. And there will be a drop in March of next year because you have the base effect of the initial war problem rolling off, but we're not getting towards 2% and as I said in our last conversation, he is basically defined failure for this Fed of not getting to 2%. And so if you really want to get to 2%, I think you have to raise interest rates.

14. I don't I think that that getting 2% is going to take a long time. We might not get there over the course of the next couple of years. But if that's really what you're focused on, then I think you have to start raising rates. The two-year Treasury it rallied today because it thinks the Fed is taking its time and the long bond yield went up significantly after the press conference because the bond market vigilantes are saying here if you really want us to believe your rhetoric, you got to start acting.

15. And I thought it was I thought he lost control of the room a little bit when those reporters started saying, "I hear you're talking and you're pretty glib the way the way that you bring these things up, but what are you waiting for if you're so determined on 2% when in the in the context of of that press conference, there's zero concern about the employment market, zero. So, why not raise interest rates? The theory says you should."