저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
제이미 디몬은 경기침체를 '정상적인' 것으로 보기 어렵다고 하면서도, 연준의 긴축(금리 인상과 QT)과 우크라이나 전쟁, 재정 주도 성장으로 거대한 폭풍이 다가오고 있다고 경고한다. 금리 전망: 연말 연방기금금리는 3~4%보다 높을 가능성이 크며, 시장의 금리 인하 기대(피벗)는 과도하다고 봤다. 임금 상승과 임대료 등 서비스 물가 때문에 연준이 시장 예상보다 더 많이 올릴 수 있다고 말했다. 유동성과 QT: 과거 QE는 상당 부분 역효과였고 마이너스 금리는 큰 실수였다. 이제 QT로 시스템상 과잉 유동성을 빼야 하며, 중앙은행이 국채를 사던 것에서 팔게 되고 정부 재정적자 증가로 자금 흐름이 크게 바뀌어 변동성이 커질 것이라 봤다. 우크라이나와 에너지: 유럽의 대규모 지상전은 1945년 이후 처음이며 결과는 예측하기 어렵다. 에너지·곡물 시장을 흔들고 있으며, 단기적으로 유가가 배럴당 100만~200만 배럴 공급 차질만으로 30~40달러 오를 수 있다고 봤다. 중장기적으로 유가가 150~175달러까지 갈 수 있다고 봤고, 가난한 국가들이 석유·가스 대신 석탄을 쓰면서 CO2는 줄지 않고 오를 것이라 주장했다. 유럽 경기: 우크라이나 상황이 악화되면 유럽은 몇 분기 내 경기침체에 들어갈 가능성이 크다고 가정했다. 미국은 고용이 견조해 현재를 침체라 부르기 어렵다고 했다. 은행 운영: JP모건은 불확실성에 대비해 대차대조표를 보수적으로 운영하고, 비운용성 예금을 줄이는 등 방어적 조치를 취하겠다고 밝혔다. 결론적으로 '허리케인'이 다가온다는 것이 핵심 메시지이며, 낙관적으로 되길 바라지만 대비가 필요하다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
the fed you know forecast you know which is like down to three percent or something by the end of the year maybe four percent it'll probably be higher because wages are still going up home prices while they kind of flattened out a little bit what they call the rental equivalency is going to continue to go up commodity prices in a lot of areas still higher than last year even though you know some have come down a little bit so it'll probably be higher than people think which is why i think you may see the fed raising rates more than people think in fact they were out warning people yesterday don't expect that we're going to pivot like like the implied curve shows you know i i mean i hate this binary thing about recession their jobs are plentiful people spending money people still going back to work it's hard to call that a recession a lot of these numbers are highly distorted by coming out of covid by inflation itself so the inflation adjustment itself makes the number come way down so i if it is recession it's not what i call a normal recession it doesn't mean we won't have a real one down the road but i wouldn't call this a normal recession right now the fed has to meet this now with raising rates and qt and the new part of this isn't the raising rates it's the qt the qt has we've never had qe before like this therefore we've never had qt like this so you're looking at something they're gonna be writing history books on for 50 years what was qe what worked what didn't work i think a lot of parts of qe backfired i think the negative rates was probably a huge mistake for a whole bunch of different reasons i'm bored with now but they've got to raise rates it might be they have to do qt they do not have a choice because there's so much liquidity in the system they have to remove some of the liquidity to stop the speculation to reduce home prices stuff like that and you've never been through qt so all the major buy if you look if you go back to 2010 and say who are all the major buyers of treasuries all that time it was central banks foreign exchange managers banks who were topping up the liquidity profiles because we had to for regulations all three it won't happen the go round banks are topped up foreign exchange matters are topped up the central bank will be selling not buying and governments have much more fiscal deficit to finance that's a huge change in the flow of funds around the world i don't know what the effect of that is i'm prepared for you tell me about minimum huge volatility and the third thing is ukraine that you've not had a european land war since 1945 okay and you could and the complexity of ukraine is we don't know the outcome i always make a list you know if you predict the outcome well you couldn't predict the outcome of vietnam korea afghanistan iraq 10 other conflagrations all wrong wars go bad they go south they have unintended consequences and this happens to be ruling the commodity markets of the world wheat oil gas and stuff like that which in my view will continue we're not taking the proper actions to protect europe from what's going to happen in oil in the short run and we're not taking the proper actions to protect you all with capital oil in the next five years which means it almost has to go up the price we're not investing enough money you know uh to keep oil a number and for all those who love climate change if oil prices go to 175 or 150 which i i kind of think is in the cars to tell the truth you know not in the immediate run but down the road then co2 won't go up down which everyone predicts because people buy less oil and gas it's going to go up because all those other countries out there the poor countries who need oil and gas to feed and heat their their citizens will turn off will not buy oil and gas they'll buy coal that's what's going to happen co2 will go up it won't come down and we're not we're not dealing with these challenges so those three things fiscally induced growth qt ukraine war so i'm going to change the storm clouds out there because i look i'm an optimist you know i i said they're storm clouds they're big storm clouds they're it's a hurricane you know everyone thinks that the fed can handle this that hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way we just don't know if it's a minor one or superstorm sandy or uh yeah sandy or or uh andrew or something like that and it's you you better brace yourself so jp moore is bracing ourselves and we're going to be very conserving our balance sheet on with all this capital uncertainty we're going to have to take actions and you know i kind of want to shed non non-operating deposits again which we can do in size you know to protect ourselves so we can serve clients in bad times and so that that's the environment we're dealing with and you know i i'm i think it's okay to hope that'll end up okay i hope it that's my goldilocks i hope the hell knows europe has slowed down to two percent of something but the the the problem right now and economists would agree with me we're looking at a static analysis that if things stay the way they are but you and i know for certain things don't stay the way they are and my view is there's a very high chance that oil go higher it only takes a million to two million barrels off the market a day that can drive prices up 30 or 40 dollars and so we should prepare for that today i think it's great that the western world has gotten together and who would have thought we'd get sweden finland germany switzerland all of us to but that working together part we need to make permanent going back to the european economy how quickly could we see a recession and how deep could it be i don't know i mean i hate to guess the future no one really knows the future i've never seen any really guess it well but again if you have if ukraine gets worse i would assume that europe's going to go to recession it may take a couple of quarters but i would assume that you know i think basically the cold war is back i think the whole world learned something that we always knew that national security is always the most important thing but it kind of recedes in the background we're all doing well but now it's the most important thing it should be the most important thing for the rest of our lives so maybe we all learned that that that is a permanent state of affairs the cold war is back the allies have to coalesce and not just for military purposes but for global economic strategic investment purposes so that we've got a safe world if and if we don't do that you know you would use ukraine you could see all around the world you will see forms of chaos you
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