저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 글로벌 불확실성 속에서도 신흥시장 중 인도를 선호하고, 액티브 종목 선별과 분산투자를 강조하며 강세장이 12~18개월 지속될 수 있다고 봄. 거시 환경: 코로나 재확산, 우크라이나-러시아 분쟁, 각국 정치적 대응이 글로벌 상황을 복잡하게 만든다고 진단. 신흥시장 전망: 원유 생산국은 유가 상승의 수혜, 밀·옥수수 등 곡물 공급국도 수혜를 볼 것으로 봄. 기술 분야는 민수·군수 수요 증가로 계속 잘될 것이라 언급. 주목 섹터: 헬스케어(검사 수요 지속), 반도체 및 반도체 관련 서비스, 소프트웨어(기업 효율화 수요). 인도: 가장 선호하는 시장 중 하나. 중국 일부를 대체하는 제조 수요, 소프트웨어 수출, 1인당 소득 증가에 따른 소비 확대를 근거로 제시. 투자 전략: 인도 지수투자보다 액티브 종목 선별이 낫다고 주장. 중국은 대형 규제 리스크로 지수가 부진하나 중소형 기업은 양호하다고 언급. 인플레이션: 코로나 이후 막대한 통화공급으로 전 세계 인플레이션 환경이 나타나며, 가격전가 능력이 없는 기업이 타격을 받을 것이라 경고. 인도 소매물가가 약 6.95%로 1년 반 내 최고 수준이라는 점에 대해서는 주식이 인플레이션에 조정되므로 주식 선호 근거로 설명. 상품: 인플레이션 기대로 상품가격이 많이 올랐으며 완만하게 계속 오를 것으로 봄. 다만 상품은 배당이 없어 투기적이며, 상품기업은 자본수익률이 높은 곳만 선호하고 환경 리스크로 신중하다고 언급. 강세장 전망: 현재 강세장이 지속되며 약 12~18개월간 상승추세 가능성. 약세장은 짧다고 보고 투자 유지 권고. 약세장이 오면 좋은 매수 기회가 될 것이라 언급. 투자자 조언: 투기하지 말고 기업을 충분히 연구할 것. 15~20개 종목 이상, 다른 산업·국가에 분산투자할 것. 출연자 전망 요약: 인도 우호적, 강세장 지속, 인플레이션 대응 위해 가격결정력 있는 기업 선호.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to denmark ladies and joining in mark welcome to the show and always a pleasure uh to speak to you and get insights from you uh my first question coming to you is overall what do you make of the global situation we have concerns that are coming in in china on the back of kowwit plus you have the russia ukraine diff that continues to impact markets and the third thing now which is anticipated is as to what fed is expected to do today in the meeting yeah it's a very complicated picture we have globally because everyone thought of course as we were coming off covet that would be the end and we would begin our normal lives again but that's not the case uh what's happened is that a new variant came in to play and that scared a whole new set of people and governments uh began to crack down again on the covent problem but then you had the ukraine russia situation which is very very severe it could lead to uh nuclear holocaust if it continues in this way and then in addition to that uh the commitments of various countries to russia or against russia uh have complicated the political environment globally so it's a it is a very very uh difficult situation to figure out what direction we're going uh the good news is generally speaking we're now coming off a very very bad covert situation generally and generally speaking countries are beginning to get back to normal right so overall mark everything's said and done right now what's the kind of impact are you expecting especially in terms of your emerging markets goal i think for emerging markets it's a very mixed picture some emerging markets are going to benefit of course from this situation uh the countries that are producing oil of course will benefit from the higher oil prices uh to some extent uh but also companies in countries that are able to supply what was coming out of russia or coming out of ukraine uh will benefit that means people that are producing wheat corn or any of the grains will do fairly well and then those companies that are doing technology generally speaking are going to continue to do well because the demand for technology not only in normal household living but also in the military will be increasing right and overall if you see in terms of where especially emerging markets go which are the sectors of growth that you're envisioning uh the sectors of growth that we uh focusing on now is healthcare to begin with because there's a much higher awareness globally of what's happening with healthcare that's number one um and of course testing is going to continue at a high rate uh even without covet the other area we are particularly interested in of course is anything to do with technology uh that includes not only the hardware but also the software as you know there is a shortage of semiconductors globally so any companies that are doing semiconductors or services related to semiconductors will continue to do well and companies that are involved in software because more and more companies are using software to enhance and to make their businesses more profitable and more efficient so overall with all of this said and done where would you actually place the indian market you know especially amongst the emerging markets how would you rank it i would say india is very high on our list and india is really in a sweet spot so to speak because they are now beginning to replace china in a number of areas as you know india has always been a very big software a country country that is exporting software on a massive scale so that will continue and expand but also with the need for a mass manufacturing on the scale that china has been doing some of that manufacturing is going to come to india as well and last but not least the indian consumer market is growing at a rapid pace the per capita incomes in india are going up and that means that you're sort of on a takeoff stage for greater and greater consumer expenditure and a real impetus for the local market okay so overall with all of this you know in terms of india as well would you say that it is a good idea to do index investing in india or it is not a good idea to do index investing i think it's better do active uh stock picking investing rather than index investing and that's not only true in india but in other countries of the world uh there's a great deal of differentiation taking place for example if you look at china overall the chinese market is down because the dominant large companies have been suffering as a result of government regulation but there are a lot of medium and small companies that are doing quite well so it's very important to pick and choose which companies are going to be the best performers right and and overall what are the other moving variables according to you that one will have to consider from here on i think the other variables we've got to consider are the impact of currency devaluations as a result of the tremendous amount of money supply that came into being as a result of covid you are now getting an inflationary environment around the world not only the us but all over the world and that is something that you have to focus on because companies that are not capable of raising prices will suffer uh with this inflation right and overall you know currently the kind of up move that we saw in the markets in the last two years has been phenomenal so would you say that this is a continuation of a bull cycle probably for the next 12 to 18 months an uptrend is something that could be in the offing because usually we've always seen cycles which last for nearly three years yeah that's right i mean that's i believe that we're still in a bull market and that will continue until that three year period then we've got to watch and see what's going to happen uh but you must remember that despite the expectation of a bear market we do know that bear markets are very short in duration uh bull markets last longer than bear markets so you're better off being invested since no one really knows when a bear market will come but when it does come it will be a great buying opportunity that's for sure right and with this what's your view coming in with regards to where the commodities market goes how are you expecting commodity prices to move firstly and in turn would you advise in investing in equity commodity linked stocks uh commodities have gone up quite a lot in anticipation of the uh the rise in inflation uh and that will continue to be the case but the rise will not be as sudden as what we've seen recently there'll be a continuous rise in the commodity prices the problem with investing in commodities is that commodities don't pay dividends you're basically speculating on the rise of price you're better off investing in a company that's producing commodities provided that the company has a very high return on his capital on its investment generally speaking we're cautious with commodity companies because of the environmental problems that they often encounter so that's an area that probably is it requires a lot of work and a lot of care and overall you know the way inflation is panning out globally i mean it's the fastest pace and what we've seen especially in terms of where the u.s is concerned meanwhile you have india's retail inflation as well which is climbed to nearly 6.95 we're pretty much the highest nearly in one and a half years as well uh clearly do you think that's something which could pose a concern for the markets going ahead of course yes uh and one of the reasons why we always recommend equities is because equities adjust to inflation so you're protected from inflation if you're investing in companies that are able to adjust their prices to inflation right and mark from here on what are the key factors that you would consider you know in term i mean what's the advice that you would want to give to any of the new investors uh well first of all study in other words don't speculate but study the companies in which you want to invest try to do as much studying as possible before investing and then secondly diversify your portfolio don't stick to just one or two stocks but put to maybe 15 20 stocks in your portfolio in different industries and hopefully in different countries by the way it's good to be diversified globally uh that way you're protected the downside absolutely and that's something one needs to consider as well thank you mark so much for joining us on the show always a pleasure to speak to you and your insights thank you stay safe and speak to you soon again all the best thank you bye thank you bye
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