저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현 시장은 과열된 슈퍼버블이며 연준 긴축과 중국 경기둔화로 경기침체 위험이 크지만, 인플레이션은 일시적일 수 있다는 관점. 연준 대응과 인플레이션: 연준이 대규모 자금을 풀어 자산시장이 사상 최고치를 찍고 인플레이션과 투기가 가속됐다. 연준이 대차대조표 축소와 금리 인상으로 대응하는 것은 위험하며, 과잉 대응 가능성이 있다. 샤마스는 인플레이션이 예상보다 일시적일 수 있다고 봤다. 버블과 시장 전망: 그랜섬은 미국 시장을 슈퍼버블로 보고 붕괴를 경고했다. 주식시장은 1조 달러 자금 투입으로 10조 달러가 회복됐으나, 주가 하락과 금리 상승이 이어지면 순자금 유출이 생길 수 있다. 성장주와 암호화폐 가격 하락이 이를 보여준다. 경기침체 신호: 데이비드 색스 등과 함께 1월 22일부터 경기침체가 다가온다고 봤다. 핵심 지표는 세계 경제의 양극화다. 미국은 금리를 올리는 반면 중국은 내리고 있어 우려된다. 중국 리스크: 중국 부동산 디레버리징(헝다 등)과 오미크론 봉쇄로 성장 둔화가 가속되고, 중국 당국은 정책을 빠르게 완화 중이다. 중국 경기 붕괴 시 미국 경제도 타격을 받는다. 투자 전략: 소수 종목이 수익률 대부분을 만들므로 우량 분야에 자금을 분산하고 장기 보유해야 한다. 전자상거래, 딥테크, 헬스케어, 기후변화, 교육, 기업용 SaaS, 구독, 머신러닝, AI, 바이오가 유망하다. 지수 우측 꼬리에 투자하는 전략을 권한다. 종목별 언급: 대상 자산 중 개별 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음. 시장 전반(주식시장·성장주·암호화폐) 하락 우려만 언급. 출연자 전망: 단기 경기침체와 버블 붕괴 우려, 장기적으로는 AI·바이오 등 혁신 분야 성장 기대.
다듬은 글
some investment managers and billionaires have expressed concern about an impending economic recession in recent months several wealthy hedge fund managers have recently expressed concern about the federal reserve's recent moves when the federal reserve pumped large amounts of money into the economy we witnessed what happened the financial markets reached new highs inflation accelerated and speculation reached alarming proportions in this video we will try to look at how stock market is crashing down given that our economy is still healing stay tuned with me till the end and let us learn more from jamaat palihapitiya shemath the stock market is crashing down when should you buy the fed's approach to rising prices poses a future concern a substantial number of fund managers economists and ordinary investors are concerned about this shemath explains why he believes investors should be unconcerned about inflation in this video investors according to shemat should concentrate on a completely another metric some fund managers and billionaires have warned of an economic slowdown in recent months among these manager is shamath bali hapitia a billionaire hedge fund manager who has recently expressed alarm about the fed's actions we saw what happened when the federal reserve printed massive sums of money and injected them into the economy inflation began to pick up speed financial markets hit new highs and speculation reached dangerous levels the federal reserve has a significant effect on the economy concerns over the federal reserve's handling of rising prices are on the horizon some fund managers economists and ordinary investors are worried about the issue investors should not be afraid of inflation according to shamath in this video shemath advises investors to focus on a whole different statistic the federal reserve is committed to decreasing its balance sheet and raising interest rates to combat inflation a dangerous development millions of people worldwide have cautioned that inflation is not a passing fad but those anxieties appear to be self-inflicted the fed has become unduly hawkish due to the dominance of that viewpoint the fed may be overreacting again similar to its reaction in march 2020 but this time on the opposite end of the scale due to the fed's likely overreaction shimath claims that inflation may be more transitory than projected a well-known investor jeremy grantham has warned of a market crash for america's super bubble kuvit money printing and anticipated inflation and the threat of higher interest rates have all stabbed the market according to grantham he sees the market as a terrible beast that has appeared immortal in recent years but will fall to gravity in the end since grantham declared 2020 an epic bubble and 2021 another bubble the term super bubble has been coined as a result we are currently trapped in a super bubble or a squared bubble grantham on the other hand occasionally makes valid observations on several fronts the u.s economy is in jeopardy according to shimat the fed would almost probably overshoot its target potentially sparking a u.s recession the stock market has recovered 10 trillion dollars after the government printed 10 trillion dollars if equity values continue to decrease while interest rates rise the net money outflow could eventually be negative the recent price decreases in growth stocks and cryptocurrencies show this shipment concurred with david sacks a well-known venture capitalist who made the case on january 22nd that a recession is on the horizon the global economy's bifurcation or divide is the most crucial indicator of an impending recession you might believe that interest rates are rising worldwide but this is not the case while the united states federal reserve has been raising interest rates china has lowered them this is concerning for several reasons if the fed raises interest rates china's economy which is currently in turmoil might be wiped out entirely because china accounts for so much of the american economy a collapse in china's economy would negatively influence the american economy this is worrisome given that china's property market is currently deliveraging by promptly selling off assets a corporation can lower its debt and deleverage several companies including china's second largest real estate developer ever grand have experienced this at the same time omicron is harming china as the chinese government has been quite strict about shutdowns china's economic development is slowing due to these two factors and it is anticipated to slow even more in the future as a result chinese officials are concerned and are losing their monetary policies swiftly the degree to which we relax policy is dependent on economic conditions but the policy direction is clear hey take a breather there for a moment we're almost there if you have not yet subscribed please click the subscribe button to ensure that you don't miss any of our videos shimat mali apitiya believed that a small subset will generally drive all returns as the originator he thinks he is in a unique position and believes that we produce a significant quantity of capital chemoth is confident that we are now in a position to consolidate share and dominate in another statement he said that we should be indexed to the right hand side of the return distribution the goal is to put roughly the same amount of money in the right investment this will result in a fully diversified portfolio spanning nine key asset groups over time there may be more than 26 specs for example the alphabet currently has 26 letters yet could there be 50 in the next decade it's possible the e-commerce deep tech healthcare climate change education enterprise sas consumer subscription services machine learning artificial intelligence and biotech will create the most revenues they are businesses that rely on technology they want to grab and consolidate control of the market our goal is to find the fastest growing categories beyond product market fit the initial stages of experimentation that are approaching product market fit and to be ready to go nuclear within the next 20 years that we can safely keep ideally 30 or 40 years subscribe and hit that notification bell to help us produce more wealth building content you can count on the nero association to keep you up to date on the latest financial and economic developments tell us what you think about this video by leaving a comment below be our daenerys association your partner in building wealth you
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