저자: MacroBillion진행자-출연자미확인,내레이션영상 · 외국인
요약 보기
LBMA 2026년 9월 금고 보고서(금 약 9,821톤, 은 약 28,985톤, 전월비 각 1.96%·1.95% 증가)와 COMEX 등록/적격 은 구분을 설명하며, 재고 수치만으로 공급 부족을 단정할 수 없다고 강조. 피터 시프의 국가부채·인플레이션 우려를 소개하되 단기 가격 예측은 하지 않음. 금 가격은 미국채 금리·달러 강세로 하락 압력을 받을 수 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Macro Billion, your trusted source for gold and silver news, precious metals analytics, and global economic events that may impact your investments. Today we will focus on two names that every serious precious metals investor should know: LBMA and COMEX. The headline also mentions Peter Schiff, a renowned economist and gold market commentator who has often warned about national debt, inflation, and the long-term purchasing power of money.
But here's the big question: Do developments in the gold and silver markets point to a big opportunity, or are investors ignoring important risks? Before we begin, subscribe to Macro Billion, turn on notifications, and like this video. Also, leave a comment telling us what you prefer: physical gold, physical silver, or both.
Let's analyze this story. First of all, what is LBMA? The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is an important organization associated with the London over-the-counter precious metals market . London is one of the world's major centers for trading and storing wholesale gold and silver. The second name is COMEX, part of the CME Group's futures markets .
COMEX provides a large marketplace where traders buy and sell gold and silver futures contracts. These contracts allow participants to manage price risks, speculate on market movements, and gain access to precious metals . Why should ordinary investors pay attention to these institutions? Because activity in wholesale markets, futures positions, and inventory reports help analysts understand changes in supply and demand conditions.
However, it is important to understand what these numbers actually mean. The LBMA’s September 2026 vault report, published in October, recorded around 9,821 tonnes of gold and 28,985 tonnes of silver in London vaults at the end of September. Both reported indicators increased by 1.96% and 1.95%, respectively, compared to the previous month.
LBMA is an important detail . These figures alone do not indicate that London has run out of precious metals. In fact, reported inventories increased during that month. At the same time, total stocks in storage do not provide a complete picture of immediate market availability. Some of the metal may be tied to specific owners or used to back financial products , so not every bar is necessarily available for immediate sale at any price.
That is why analysts should study multiple indicators rather than relying on a single headline. Peter Schiff's broad investment argument often focuses on government borrowing, inflation, the purchasing power of currencies, and the potential role of gold as a long-term store of value. These concerns are relevant to discussions about precious metals, but they do not prove that there is a specific supply crisis occurring today.
So, the real story is much bigger than the loud headline. We need to understand how physical inventories, futures contracts, investor demand, and economic policy interact. Now let's take a closer look at COMEX , because understanding its inventory reports helps investors separate real market signals from exaggerated forecasts.
One of the most important differences in COMEX warehouse data is the difference between registered and eligible metal. What does this mean? A registered metal is typically a metal that meets the requirements of an exchange and has an active warrant, making it available for delivery under an eligible futures contract, in accordance with the contract's rules and the decisions of the holder.
The eligible metal also meets the exchange's specifications and is stored in an approved warehouse , but does not currently have a registered warrant for delivery. This distinction is important because eligible silver does not automatically become available for delivery simply because it is in an approved warehouse .
The owner may decide to register it, but this decision is not guaranteed. At the same time, acceptable metal should not be considered absent or unusable . This is physical silver stored in an approved system , although its current status is different from the registered reserves. This is where many market discussions get confusing.
Imagine the volume of registered silver decreasing over a period of several weeks. Some commentators may immediately declare that silver is running out on the COMEX, but a responsible analyst would ask a few additional questions. How much acceptable silver is left? Has the metal moved between the registered and acceptable categories?
Are supply volumes increasing? Are futures contracts about to expire? Is the withdrawal from warehouses being accelerated? And what happens to the price difference between near-term and distant futures contracts? Each of these details can add a new piece to the big picture. A decrease in registered inventories is worth monitoring, especially if it occurs against a backdrop of high demand for supply and other signs of shortage, but a single change in inventories does not prove the inevitability of a supply disruption.
There is also a difference between the volume of futures trading and the amount of physical metal available for delivery. Futures contracts can be bought and sold many times without the need to transfer rights to a new physical bar with each transaction. This is one of the reasons why the relationship between paper trading and physical metal is attracting so much attention.
The futures market provides liquidity and hedging tools. Physical bullion markets serve other needs, including wholesale distribution, investment holdings, and industrial supplies. Both markets are important, but they should not be considered identical. For investors tracking silver, a useful approach is to compare multiple metrics over time.
Keep track of registered inventory, eligible inventory , delivery notifications, futures spreads, and physical premiums. Then compare these signals with broader information about supply and demand. Also remember that COMEX is just one part of the global silver market. The metal is stored in other storage facilities, traded in other markets, and used by industrial consumers around the world.
A change in one storage system does not give a complete picture of global supply. The key lesson is simple. Stock reports are noteworthy, but they need context . Let's move from the New York futures markets to London, where the LBMA reports on gold and silver held in the London market's vaults. These reports are important because they provide insight into the physical metal stored in one of the world's precious metals trading centers.
But investors need to understand what exactly these reports measure. According to LBMA data for September 2026, approximately 9,821 tons of gold and 28,985 tons of silver were stored in London vaults at the end of the month. The organization publishes these statistics to increase transparency in the London Bullion Market (LBMA).
These are significant volumes of metal, but these figures do not mean that every ounce is available for immediate purchase by any investor. Some of the bullion may belong to investment funds , financial institutions, commercial participants, or other owners. Some assets may provide exchange-traded products.
These numbers also don't cover every private vault or every location in the world. So, what should investors pay attention to? First, study changes over time. A single monthly indicator is less informative than a consistent trend over several reporting periods. Second, compare storage inventories to other indicators such as exchange-traded inventories, physical premiums, trading activity, and evidence of industrial demand.
Third, consider the difference between the total amount of metal and the volume available for a particular transaction. Total inventory and instant liquidity are related, but they are not the same thing. For example, if demand for certain silver bars suddenly increases, the premium for them may increase even when overall silver supplies remain substantial .
Product availability , refining capacity, transportation, and dealer inventory can impact the retail buyer experience. This is why local shortages of popular coins do not necessarily indicate depletion of supplies on the global silver market. The reverse is also correct. Large inventory reports in storage facilities do not guarantee that any form of silver can be obtained immediately, cheaply, and anywhere.
Now let's consider gold. Gold plays an important role in central bank reserves and investment portfolios. When investors start to worry about inflation, government debt, or financial instability, demand for gold can increase. Silver has an additional component of industrial demand. Manufacturers need silver for a number of applications, including electronics and solar technology.
This means that industrial conditions may affect silver differently than gold. However, supply and demand are constantly changing. Higher prices can stimulate processing, reduce certain forms of demand, and make additional supply economically attractive. These reactions take time, but they are part of the market adjustment process.
This is why investors should be cautious about predictions that physical metal will disappear from the market by a certain date. A credible deficit analysis requires evidence. Continued inventory reduction, limited wholesale availability, changing premiums, delivery terms, and other supporting indicators.
The LBMA and Comex reports can contribute to such analysis, but neither provides a complete picture on its own. The main conclusion is that transparency is valuable. The better we understand what inventory figures really mean , the less likely we are to confuse normal market movements with evidence of an extraordinary crisis.
We will then connect these physical market developments to Peter Schiff's concerns about inflation, national debt, and the future purchasing power of money. Now let's consider the broader economic argument related to Peter Schiff. Schiff often argued that excessive government borrowing, persistent inflation, and monetary policy decisions could weaken the purchasing power of currencies over time.
He believes that gold can play an important role for investors who want to diversify the risks associated with conventional financial assets . These are old economic arguments, and they deserve careful consideration. Let's start with the national debt. When governments borrow money, they have to manage interest payments and refinancing.
If borrowing costs remain high, debt servicing could put more pressure on public finances. Investors may then pay more attention to fiscal policy, government bond yields, and the sustainability of future spending. But high public debt does not automatically mean that a country will default or that its currency will depreciate.
The outcome depends on many factors, including economic growth, tax revenues, monetary policy, borrowing conditions, and investor confidence. Next, let's look at inflation. When prices rise, the purchasing power of money falls. This is one of the reasons why some investors prefer to hold gold for a long time.
They hope this will help preserve purchasing power or diversify their portfolios in times of economic uncertainty. But gold is not an ideal tool for protecting against inflation in the short term. Its price can fall when interest rates rise, the dollar strengthens, or investors reduce their holdings of precious metals.
Recent market data provides a useful example of these opposing forces at work. The World Gold Council's September 2026 commentary reported that gold prices declined during the month amid strengthening U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. At the same time, global exchange-traded funds investing in gold have seen significant capital inflows, showing that demand from one group of investors can remain high even during falling prices.
World Gold Council. This is an important lesson. Markets don't always move in one simple direction. Some investors may buy gold because they are concerned about long-term fiscal risks , while others may sell because rising yields make interest-bearing assets more attractive. Both groups can operate simultaneously.
Silver adds another level to this picture. Because silver has significant industrial uses, expectations about production and economic growth can influence its price, along with concerns about inflation and currency. What does this mean for viewers following Schiff's analysis? Use his arguments as a starting point for research, not as a substitute for your own judgment.
Study inflation data, real interest rates, the cost of government borrowing , currency trends, and the physical precious metals market . Ask whether the evidence supports the statement being made, and consider what events might call this view into question. Also distinguish between long-term economic concerns and short-term price forecasts.
Someone can be concerned about the national debt and still be wrong about when gold will rise in price. An analyst can identify a real risk without knowing exactly how the markets will react. You don't have to predict an imminent collapse to recognize that inflation, debt, and the purchasing power of currency are worthy of attention.
The goal is to understand the range of possible outcomes and prepare sensibly for uncertainty. Welcome to the final part of today's analysis on Macro Billion. We looked at the LBMA, COMEX physical bullion inventories, and Peter Schiff's broader concerns about government debt and inflation. Now let's turn these topics into practical lessons for investors.
The first lesson is to understand the difference between a warning and confirmed facts. When someone says a major deficit is looming, ask what supports that statement. Are inventory levels steadily decreasing ? Are the terms of delivery changing? Are physical premiums increasing in many markets? Is industrial demand growing?
Do independent sources report similar events? The answers will help you distinguish a real market trend from speculation. The second lesson is to keep an eye on the connection between physical metal and futures trading. COMEX inventory reports help investors track metal held in approved warehouses, while LBMA reports provide information on inventories in London vaults.
Both are useful, but they measure different parts of the market, so they need to be interpreted with caution. Remember that COMEX registered and eligible silver are not the same categories. Similarly, the total stock of London warehouses does not equal the volume of metal immediately available to each buyer.
The third lesson is to monitor the overall economic environment. If inflation remains persistent, the cost of government borrowing increases, and confidence in currencies weakens, some investors may become more interested in gold. But higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar could put pressure on precious metals.
Silver also responds to industrial demand and expectations of economic growth. These factors can sometimes support both metals, but at other times they can push their prices in opposite directions. Lesson four—avoid emotional investment decisions . Don't buy just because the headline predicts extraordinary growth.
Don't sell everything just because prices suddenly dropped. Instead, understand your investment goals, time horizon, and the level of risk you can afford to take. If you are considering physical bullion, compare dealer markups, authenticity, storage costs, and resale conditions. If you are considering financial products, understand their structure, fees, and counterparty risks.
Be especially careful with leverage, as it can magnify losses. Ultimately, remember that no analyst can predict every market movement with certainty. Peter Schiff's views on inflation, government debt, and gold offer one perspective on the precious metals market . Other analysts may place greater emphasis on interest rates, industrial demand, or market positioning.
Comparing these perspectives can help you form a more balanced understanding. And here is the main message of today's video . The most important signal is not one inventory figure or one dramatic forecast. This is a combination of evidence from physical markets, futures trading, and the broader economy.
The LBMA and COMEX are noteworthy as they provide valuable information on important parts of the global precious metals market , but the available data should be viewed honestly, without assuming that a shortage or market collapse has already been proven. Now I want to hear your opinion. Do you think LBMA and COMEX inventory data will become increasingly important for gold and silver investors, or do you think interest rates and the US dollar will remain the dominant forces?
Share your thoughts in the comments below. If you enjoyed this analysis, please like this video, subscribe to Macro Billion, and turn on notifications for gold and silver news. Thank you for watching. Be informed, think for yourself, and never let fear or excitement replace thorough research. Financial Disclaimer : This video is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Gold and silver prices can be volatile and you could lose money. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor when appropriate. This is Macro Billion. See you in the next video.
Comments 0