저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
Meta가 AI를 수익화할 구독 모델을 내놓은 것은 투자자가 원하던 방향이며 긍정적이다. 3.5B 사용자 기반이 강점이고, 구독 채택이 늘면 매출이 2~4% 이상 증가할 수 있어 주가가 반영하지 못한 기회가 있다. Meta 목표가 $900 이상을 유지하며 올해는 입증의 해다. 막대한 CapEx(1,200~1,300억 달러) 대비 성과를 보여줘야 하며, 향후 2~3분기가 분기점이다. 애플(WWDC), 세일즈포스 실적 등 소프트웨어·테크 실적이 중요하다.
다듬은 글
Star analyst Dan Ives here with us to react to a chart that we're going to show you right now, which did get that midday pop. Reacting as if this is a major revenue opportunity. Is it? Look, I think after all the cap backs that they're spending, I mean, this is a I I view it as almost a major step in the right direction because it comes down to 3 and 1/2 billion users.
How are you going to monetize it? And I think the subscription, they've obviously played around with it. This is what investors want to see. Now it's about how do you monetize user base? And look, this is really This is not the end step. It's just an interim step as they integrate more and more AI into that user base.
That's going to be the monetization. I think that's something where the stock is not reflecting still. I think some of the revenue opportunities that we'll see over the coming years. Now, you got 900 outperform. You mentioned investors want to see it. Do users want to see it? Are they going to be willing to pay it?
We're only talking about what seems to be according to some of the reporting here, 3 to $4 a month for a sub for Insta, Facebook, and WhatsApp. Yeah, you start to get any sort of adoption, you you start to now look at revenues that could be up 2, 3, 4%, and then so on as the adoption curve increases.
So, I think it's something that investors are not really factoring in that they were going to do something like this. I think from a timing perspective, it's maybe come earlier. It shows a confidence in terms of their ability to roll it out. And look, this is going to just be a continued narrative, whether it's Microsoft, whether it's Meta, whether it's Apple.
How are you going to monetize AI? Chip companies have shown how they're going to monetize, just like software. Yeah, but you're you're talk you Okay, that's interesting how you say it it it reflects a confidence on their part to to do this. Some may look at this and and suggest that it it shows they're, you know, late a little late to the the game on how they're going to monetize AI beyond their their core ad business, and you you're just throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks because Zuckerberg apparently at the shareholder meeting also said or at least he opened the door for a cloud business.
Is that a a moonshot or is that legit? Okay, the cloud obviously that could be maybe a bit more of a moonshot but to me it's okay. How do you slowly diversify away on the advertising? The advertising they're going to that's going to continue to be obviously bread and butter but you look at what they're doing that's going to continue to be diversification and I I view that as a positive because their install base is unmatched.
Mhm. So as they monetize it, you know, part of our bullishness in terms of, you know, where I talk about $900 and ultimately, you know, what could be higher, this is a key prove it year for Zuckerberg and Meta. Mhm. It's a step in the right direction after obviously a quarter where it was all about CapEx and obviously that was a more of a dog ate the homework type of conference call.
Well, let me ask you this cuz as you were talking I was looking at the stock. So it's down almost 4% um year-to-date. How much pressure do you think they're feeling inside that building? And how much pressure is he feeling himself, Zuckerberg, to deliver something that's going to wow the market and wow investors back into the name because outside of Microsoft, which is is down as well on the year, there everything else seems like it's a pretty good story to tell.
Mhm. Outside of these two. Pressure's definitely building because when you're spending 120, 130 billion to from from a CapEx perspective, they need to now show and I think that the wake-up call was the last earnings call because when you contrast that with Amazon and obviously others, for Meta that's kind of put in Meta in the investor penalty box.
You got to start to show it. Next two, three quarters, this stock's either at 750, 800 or it's where it is or lower. The point is this is kind of a fork in the road period in my opinion for Meta, but a step in the right direction in terms of the rolling this No, but they keep finding themselves in the penalty box.
You know what I'm saying? Like it wasn't just after this last quarter. It was like two quarters ago they were in the penalty box with a major penalty before. Like they can't stay out of the box. How do they stay out of the box? Look and I think for them that's that's the quagmire because they're trying to really turn around uh a cargo ship in a river.
I mean they're trying to make a massive transformation while investors are obviously watching every single move. When you think about the hyperscalers or chip companies, they're kind of front and center in terms of ones that are going to benefit from AI. Meta, we'll see Apple in a few weeks. You look at Microsoft when it comes to you know one where it's still guilty till proven innocent.
These are the names now that now need to show. It's not just about talk. It's about execution. Real quick. Real quick. Apple, new new high. You just mentioned WWDC. We'll be there. So that that stock's up. And how much pressure is on uh Salesforce tonight with with their earnings? I mean if you from a pressure level, if there's pressure on Meta, there's even double the pressure on Benioff and Salesforce because it comes to back to back's against the wall.
I think they ultimately start from an Asian forest perspective. Can you get that over you know ultimately to a point where it could be 3, 4% of revenue? But this is a prove it period. Look at Zscaler. They're here. Look at CrowdStrike and Palo Alto on the other side. That's why fork in the road period for tech. Key few months ahead. Key earnings night ahead for software. but
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