저자: TomLee—출연자소속미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 블록체인이 신뢰 없는 거래 결제를 해결하므로 암호화폐 장기 낙관을 유지한다고 주장. 현재 암호화폐 약세는 긴축 기조 전환·CLARITY Act 지연·AI 자본 쏠림 탓이며 본질은 훼손되지 않았다고 봄. S&P500은 연말 8,000 목표, 가을 중 조정 후 V자 반등 전망. 워시 연준의 정책 변화·유동성 이벤트·중동 전쟁 여파·마진부채를 리스크로 꼽음. 진행자 Danny는 Extend Autopilot 유료 트레이딩 서비스를 홍보하며 과장된 수익률을 언급함.
다듬은 글
This is why Tom Lee is very bullish on cryptocurrency, and especially Ethereum. He is clearly deep into the subject, having invested 11 billion in it. So it's hard for him not to be optimistic. So, he puts his money where he talks about, or as they say, right? So, we're going to talk about why he's optimistic, here in this video.
Welcome to the game in Dubai. Welcome to the new video. If you don't know who I am, my name is Danny, and I try to be, um, very generous in sharing my investing story. Because if you've been watching me for 8-9 years, you know that I was one of the first YouTubers to talk about Tesla when it was 23 to 11 and up to 500.
It changed not only my life, but the lives of many others. After that, I also had great success with Robinhood, Palantir, Nvidia, and I think those investments were not easy, but they were life-changing, and it's always free on a daily basis. So make sure you subscribe to all four of my channels. My colleague Mikaela talks about Iron, Sofi, and also about him.
So if you're interested, be sure to subscribe to it too, and don't forget to follow me on X, because that's where I share thoughts, statistics, and sometimes other content. Check it out and let's dive into extenddaytrading.com because we built something and our vision was: how can we make professional day trading accessible to our members' portfolios?
So we created this unique software, our own—Extend Autopilot, which allows our professional day traders to send you all the trades, buys and sells. You only need to turn it on; We'll do the rest, right? Sounds amazing. This is truly amazing. And we just launched our first major iteration, the evolution of our autopilot.
This is the third version of the autopilot that we have been working on for the last four years. The backtesting results are simply incredible. Capital increase 27 times in one year. We're very excited about how we're going to perform from July to next July, and it's going to be very exciting because even if we only get 10x, 15x, or even 5x, it's going to outperform any other asset out there , and it's going to be completely automated for you.
If this interests you, check out ixanddaytraining.com. Check if there is time available for a 15- minute call and we will see if we can help you too. Unfortunately, this is only for those with over $10,000 to start investing . And secondly, it's very exclusive. We want to leave this for very serious people only.
We can't offer this to everyone. So if you are not serious about day trading and short-term investing and are not prepared for volatility, then this is not for you. So, don't go to the site. But if you are serious about growing your short-term portfolio, then take a look and I look forward to having you on our team.
Now, having said that, Tom Lee was on a podcast recently, and I love that podcast because it's very, you know, market-oriented, and the guys ask Tom Lee why he's optimistic. OK. And the second piece will be about what he thinks about the second half of this year. OK. The first half was already crazy, but what will happen in the second?
Let's see. So, Tom, cryptocurrency is far from its highs. Bitcoin fell. It has halved. Ethereum lost about two-thirds of its value. Your firm Bitmine, a digital asset treasury, bought over 40 million worth of Ethereum yesterday. Why are you optimistic? The reason we were bullish on cryptocurrency earlier this year, and indeed for the past 10 years, is that cryptocurrencies and blockchains solve an important problem: how to conduct trustless transactions between two untrusting parties.
And this type of settlement and finality has been proven because Bitcoin and Ethereum have never recorded a fraudulent transaction in their entire history. And that's why Wall Street is creating tokenized assets and building stablecoin payment channels, and I think that over time, blockchain will actually replace a lot of legacy financial systems.
For example, the Goldman Sachs conference is taking place in London today, and the number of participants has actually tripled compared to last year. Similarly, I am optimistic about cryptocurrency because I think as agents and AI become richer, we start to see agents and robots creating wealth for us .
For us, the opportunity is that we can reach a point where agents actually own more wealth than we do. And I call it the " uncanny valley of riches." There may come a time when, if our delegated agents make more money than we do, we will wonder whether we work for them or they work for us. And I think that's why the crypto community and many technologists are starting to realize that crypto is really one way for people to control the future of agents.
So I think those two megatrends are still relevant, but cryptocurrency prices have been, uh, just terrible this year. I think part of it is macroeconomics, you know that monetary policy is not soft right now . She looked soft just 6 months ago, right? The market expected two rate cuts, and now two increases.
Hmm, that's a serious obstacle. The Clarity Act, which was supposed to help create federal regulations for cryptocurrencies and allow the CFTC to oversee the industry, you know, is still stuck in Congressional processes. And AI, of course , has achieved such success that, I think, it has not only diverted attention, but has actually attracted investors' capital.
So to me, these are, uh, barriers, but they don't create what I call intermodal substitutions. I believe blockchain will remain central to the future of the financial services industry and, indeed, how we manage AI. As you can see, one of the main arguments is that there is no future without crypto.
Okay, of course, there are always some negative aspects, right? You may remember, if you're not new to crypto, that they always said, " Hey, it's a bubble." This is a financial pyramid. It's worthless and so on. But somehow, the crypto went from $1 to $120,000 per bitcoin. Maybe you got lucky and jumped on this train.
I missed that. I never really...I think I bought my first bitcoin when it was 18, then it went down to 13. I sold it. I think I had two or three bitcoins, and then I sold them. Uh, I...I did n't see the point in that . I just wasn't a fan of it. But then it gained popularity. This proved that it has its place in finance .
This is a new asset class. If people want to invest in the S&P 500, or in certain growth stocks, or in securities, or in dividend stocks, you can also invest in crypto. Crypto seems to be a new generation asset class, something Tom Lee has also said many times: younger generations start with crypto and then move on to stocks.
But here you can see that tokenization of stocks, as we are currently seeing with the example of Robinhood, always happens on the blockchain. This is the safest technology. So, you see, crypto is more of a technology and software that the world, and especially the financial sector, simply cannot do without.
Isn't that right? So let's talk in the second video about what Tom D thinks about the second half of this year. Let's move on to some of your predictions for the second half of this year. You set a target at the beginning of the year when you came to the show at the beginning of the year. The target for the S&P was 7,700.
We are on track to reach that level, but in your semi-annual report you changed it; Now you see the S&P reaching 8,000 by the end of the year, but with one caveat that I find interesting: you believe that in the fall the markets will face something resembling a " bear" market and then skyrocket. Could you explain why you think all this will happen?
Yes, we raised our target to 8,000, which is essentially $400 in earnings per share in 2027, and if we trade at a 20 multiple, it would be 8,000. But from June to December, I think the market is going to have to go through a lot of tests. First and most obvious: we have a new Fed chairman, and Kevin Warsh has ambitious goals.
He wants to fundamentally change the way the Fed operates. And it has five working groups. One of them is to revise the definition of inflation. The second is communications analysis. The third is how they collect data. There are others, but for me these are all new challenges for the market, as it is very used to a certain frequency of press conferences.
Before Powell, as you know, a press conference after an FOMC rate decision was not the norm , and it seems Kevin Warsh can only hold them when he has something to say. He also no longer wants to provide forecast guidance. Therefore, markets will have to find a replacement for such benchmarks. Maybe it will be prediction markets.
And he may also want to reconsider the definition of inflation. But it won't be easy, because he himself wants to first reach 2%, but then—2% inflation by what measures? The second challenge will be unlocking all liquidity after the IPO. For SpaceX, it actually starts in the fall. Third, this war with Iran is creating a cumulative and growing shortage of petroleum products.
Because the Strait of Hormuz has not yet returned to normal. And while gasoline is plentiful in America, that doesn't mean that lubricants and other petroleum products are abundant everywhere. And I mean, I'm being literal, but it's the oil that lubricates the mechanisms, right? For example, will there be any problems somewhere?
I don't know, it's...I think it's very vague. And fourth, margin debt is usually associated with some correction over the next 6 months. So I think that between now and the midterm elections, there could be a fifth risk or that fragility that we talked about that contributes to the fall. And, as you know, corrections, when they begin, can be very, very unpleasant.
So I really don't know, and I would n't want to define the peak either. So we advise our clients to stay invested, and we are still optimistic because I think there is enough skepticism right now, but even from the level where we peak, I think there will be a significant drop. So as you can see, he thinks we will still see a drop and then a V- shaped recovery.
My question is just this. Everything is based on the fact that the Fed will be tested for strength. There should be some cooling of the market, etc. But I always say, okay, listen, maybe we've been through this before, right? I mean, we had a downturn because of Trump's tariffs, right? We had a downturn due to the war with Iran.
We had a few more shocks, especially for those companies that are very publicized, like the moment with DeepSeek for Nvidia, right? We even had a drop that was partly due to the new Fed. So the question is , is everyone waiting for a drop, and we've already passed it, and now the market will grow higher and higher, with periodic respites; For example, Nvidia just touched its 200-day moving average— one of the most attractive prices for Nvidia ever.
If you take the P/ E ratio and the forward P/E ratio, right? And you see that they will grow, and the earnings reports are just around the corner. So it would be completely crazy if the earnings reports shocked everyone, would n't it? So, it could happen, and I think cryptocurrency has also taken a big hit.
So if we see progress with the Clarity Act, if we see cryptocurrency in Trump's accounts, all of this could be a huge, just a huge buying opportunity, because investors always look at things that haven't shown results. What did the results show? Switch money, move it around, lock in profits here, move on to the next sector.
There is always a rotation, okay? There is always a rotation , for example, from AI to guard companies, from them back to AI, from AI to crypt, from crypt to AI, right? We've been observing this for the last, um , months, starting in September. Then we saw a huge rally in gold and silver . So you see that the market is always in a state of rotation.
I think Tom Lee knows this better than anyone, and that's why he's also optimistic. So, I hope that answers your question, and don't forget to visit extendater.com before we raise the price of admission, and I'll .
Comments 0