저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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은 공매도 포지션 과다와 리스 물량 이탈로 실물시장 가격 결정이 진행 중이라 주장. 금·은 모두 강세 유지 전망. 중앙은행 금 보유·리스 구조 변화, 스탠딩 딜리버리 급증을 근거로 제시. 후반 내레이션은 달러 신뢰 붕괴·재정적자·인플레이션 우려를 근거로 금·은 장기 보유를 권유.
다듬은 글
And interestingly, Andy, from the point of view, looking at what's going on in precious metals, gold is just moving sideways. Silver, silver has got um, you know, a nice bid under it actually. I mean, it rarely feels firm. And I look forward to your market analysis on this. But if you look at both those precious metals, they should I mean, they should be coming off in the summer months basically because the establishment will want some cheap stock or to mark to market on their shorts or whatever it might be.
um it could happen yet, but there's no sign of it. It I mean it's just remarkably firm and I just get the feeling that anything coming into the market is just taken. So over over to you on the market again silver provides a window. Um it obviously gold is much more complex to follow. The footprints are much easier to read.
But the thing is I think that and you know we we were talking about 35 resistance. Now that's become support and in fact even 36 looks like support. So why why is that? And I think what it is is that personally I believe this uh that and we track our liquidity providers in Asia and it and what it's happened I think that silver has a sufficient um open interest or um or let's just say there's sufficient COMX open interest and LBMA open interest that has now escaped into the physical markets.
I think it's jumped the ring fence. I think they're having very very much trouble in keeping silver down and and I think it's it's almost and to me now that kind of raises you mentioned 2020 you if we look at gold in 2020 we had 800,000 contracts of open interest and as I know you follow this closely now we're around half of that maybe a bit over half of that and some of that is momentum short positions.
So, so and yet as you know the gold price continues higher without that open interest. So I think what we're seeing in silver it's I believe jumped sufficiently out of their tentacles of their control for the price to be determined in the physical markets where you have to own something before you can even sell it.
So now I think the same thing is about to happen in gold. We're seeing that open interest really dwindling. We see it evaporating. Where is it going? It's going it's not evaporate. It's not it's a finite equation. Where is it going? It's going into the physical markets. So then you've got the unwind of leverage, hence the price increase.
So I think that we silver is providing the key to what we're seeing in gold which is it is going to also exit itself from the controls of the LBMA CME who have been sitting on that for between them for 50 odd years. And I think when the physical markets are being determined somewhere else and you can try and delay Basel 3 all you want um uh in in the US you can all that's going to happen is you don't adhere to that you start continue to play paper games well when the liquidity uh has flowed out into the physical markets and they turn around and just simply say give it to us then and then I essentially unless they be the comix ultimately becomes equally basel 3 compliant every ounce is going to vanish
that's interesting the other thing I did notice is that um in 2023 China exported an awful lot of silver and I to my mind was suppressing the market and the thing that was interesting is that amongst the largest takers of this silver were places like Hong Kong Singapore and London you know which I would regard as predominantly financial centers rather than photovoltaic manufacturers.
Um last year 2024 um these financial centers dropped off. I there was still a sort of net export um from from China. I mean there's no doubt China in in my view has has accumulated an awful lot of silver. It's been stockpiling it over the years. So it's been controlling the market. But I suspect that's changing.
Um and the thing that's interesting is that perhaps with a very quiet change of policy, I mean we've seen it with rare earths, very good example. Um but we're now finding that uh you know, silver, platinum and so on. I mean suddenly there's a behavior going on there which we're not all that familiar with.
Your comments please. I honestly believe that's because um the price the price of the physical metal is being determined in a physical exchange and it's literally then you've got the open the paper open interest literally uh exiting to where a real market now for example um if I'm a producer and I've been financed by the LBMA and this brings to mind city's call for 25 $2,600 gold and and We know and I'm absolutely certain of this that um that they were they were forcing uh producers to sell forward based on the fact that they said well we think the go the treasuries the the the go the um stock markets are going to do well um that the stock that the US is going to uh boom interest rates are coming down.
This is their comment. this is their comment. And and so therefore, with all of that in mind, uh gold's going to lose 600 bucks by 2026. And and and even as much as yesterday, uh the head of UBS was out there talking about that. It's rubbish. It's absolute rubbish. So they force and and I think the real point I'm trying to make here is they then they finance a number of producers.
Now, if you finance that producer and you tell him to hedge a position and you sell it forward, the bad, they're going to take the long side, you've what you've you've robbed them unnecessarily because there's no way that that with with the physical markets exploding elsewhere, being set elsewhere, and them losing control.
Um I really strongly believe that that them forcing the the the the the producer that you finance because if you withdraw his banking his business goes down. So it is a debanking situation. So with as far as gold's concerned, I think that is also uh I think that game if I'm a producer, why would I want to be financed by a predatory um uh uh after being treated like that?
I would much rather take my financing from China from I'll take an ownership pos let them take an ownership position. will will do much what the bricks is trying to do, become uh take the barriers down and sit at the same side of the table and we'll all make some money. Um so to me I think that's happening.
That's a very very good point and um also of course the rise in the gold price means that um cash flow pressures on mines are not as great as they were. So um you know I think that you know the city corps and the UBS's from uh manufacturers has been given two fingers basically. I think I think yeah I think what you say is very interesting.
There is another aspect to this which I want to explore a little bit with you. Uh we had uh an announcement um rather it was I think it was a sort of um you know monthly um commentary coming out of the ECB um about uh what had happened earlier this year with um you know the premiums on COMEX and how it sucked in bullion and all the rest of it.
And um it was quite an interesting article the way it was written because it was actually trying not to say too much to upset the markets if you like this. That's the feeling I got. But the one thing they said the reason that we're worried about this is that Eurozone institutions their derivatives position in gold have increased 58% compared with the previous quarter or compared with I don't know previous quarter the previous year whatever.
Now this is interesting. um because um tied with this they were they mentioned the stands for delivery. Now I haven't seen anyone else talk about this. I've been talking about it for some time and we've talked about it together but I thought I'd run some numbers on this. I mean it's the stands for delivery are very important.
I mean basically my hypothesis is that when um it became possible that Trump was going to introduce flat 25% tariffs on all commodities all imports the whole lot the problem for uh comx um operators in comx is that they had standard delivery obligations and these Stanford delivery obligations were accelerated.
Now nobody really noticed this but they are absolutely huge. Now I know that the the um uh you know the the exchange for physical are even greater but you know we don't know whether that's one way or the other way and it can be both ways but you know we've got hard evidence with uh stands for delivery.
Um, interestingly, the Bank of England's vaults uh lost 14 million and 48,000 ounces between uh the end of October and the end of April. Yeah. On top of that, the LBMA lost a further 7.7 million for a total of 20,751,000 ounces. Wow. Yeah. That's big. The stands for delivery in that time interestingly were a bit over 22 million 22 million and 36,500.
Now okay now you can't necessarily say that these you know these figures are meant to match but you can see that you got a problem on one side and you got a problem on the other side. Now um part of the problem of course is that the stands for delivery have increased at um a faster rate this year so far uh than they have um in in recent years.
But I think I'm right in saying that between 2021 and 24 stands for delivery were around about 2,100 tons. This year so far we're running at the rate of an annualized 1500 tons. M so we're running at close to four times the rate if you like more more I suppose. Uh now um the interesting thing and this is something which I think the ECB was is actually worried about is that all this stuff disappearing from London um how's he going to get back?
Because the point about an arbitrage is you do one leg and then you do another leg. Now what you might do is you might protect your position by say um taking out a an out of the money call option just in case it ris you know the price rises too much. But if you've actually say taken um you know 20% premium um which one stage you could do um by literally begging borrowing or stealing bullion from one center and selling it into another center.
you got to get it back cuz you got the obligations uh from where you got it. And this is the interesting thing because the Bank of England as I say you know you had leeching out from you had 14 million and 48,000 uh uh uh ounces. Now, this is interesting because I don't believe that um bullion banks and um hedge funds whatever whatever store much bullion in the Bank of England is predominantly central banks.
Would you agree with that or or am I wrong? No, no, no. I I I you're right. So what that means is that um you know the system whereby the Bank of England turns around to a leasing central bank and says don't worry you know uh you'll earn 1% whatever the figure is. Um uh and it'll you know pay for your storage costs which is lovely.
It's lovely for us lovely for you. Um and uh we have a book entry transfer system. So um you know the the the bullion stays here and at the end of the lease you'll be able to get it back. It's gone. It's gone. Gold and silver have once again captured the spotlight as America teeters on the edge of unprecedented financial and political instability.
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