저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 다우 2만 돌파는 거품이며, 금리 상승·인플레이션·달러 약세가 겹치면 증시가 크게 하락할 것이라는 비관론. 다우 2만 돌파와 트럼프의 환호: 다우지수가 2017년 1월 25일 처음으로 2만선을 넘었고 나스닥·S&P500도 사상 최고권. 트럼프가 'Great Dow 20K'라고 트윗한 것을 비판하며, 대선 전이었다면 거품이라 했을 것이라고 지적. 증시 상승 동력 분석: 해외 아웃소싱으로 기업 비용 절감, 저금리 기반 자사주 매입(부채 조달), 채권 강세에 따른 금리 하락이 지금까지 주가를 떠받쳤다고 설명. 이 구조가 끝나가는 중이라고 주장. 트럼프 정책의 영향: 미국 고용·국산 제품 구매 정책은 아웃소싱을 줄여 기업 이익을 감소시킬 것. 국경세·관세는 수입 원자재 비용을 올리고 기업 이익을 줄이며 물가를 상승시킬 것. 금리·인플레이션·달러: 원자재(아연 약 80% 상승 등 산업금속·에너지·농산물) 가격 상승을 근거로 인플레이션 가속을 예상. 달러는 신고점 이후 약세로 전환 중이며 금리 상승과 함께 채권은 약세(금리 상승)로 전환될 것이라고 주장. 이 환경에서는 금·신흥국·해외주식이 유리하다고 언급. 미국 주식 전망: 금리 상승, 인플레이션, 이익 감소, 할인율 상승이 겹쳐 주식에 부정적. 결국 거품 붕괴 가능성 제기. 2008년 위기는 '작은 떨림'에 불과하다고 주장. 부채와 정부 지출: 재정적자를 무시하고 화폐를 찍어내면 통화 위기와 초인플레이션이 올 수 있다고 경고. 트럼프는 지출 삭감보다 증액 가능성이 크며, 실질 저축 없이 인위적 부양은 잘못된 투자와 자산 거품을 낳는다고 주장. 트럼프에 대한 평가: 대선 당시 힐러리보다 트럼프를 지지했다고 밝히면서도, 거품을 인정하고 조정을 준비시키지 않는 것은 문제라고 비판.
다듬은 글
the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday crossed the psychologically important 20,000 level for the first time with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ also trading in record territory um I'm looking at the stock market at 20,100 and I'm wonder you're a financial person you think we go up some more from here what you territory and what could bring it down our financial institutions are strong okay Peter writes should I be worried about Bear Sterns in terms of liquidity and get my money out of there no no no Bear Sterns is fine do not take your money this is really if there's one takeway other than the plus 400 some Bear Sterns is not in trouble I mean if anything they're more likely to be taken over don't move your money from bear that's just being silly don't be silly bear Sterns was in a death spiral and the FED brokered it s the worst financial crisis in modern times cly the largest financial disaster in decades in this country and perhaps the end of an era in American Business and none of the experts or leaders or Talking Heads at a clue it was coming but there were some who saw it coming while the whole world was having a big old party a few Outsiders and Weirdos saw what no one else could leadership an expert on the economy he forecast the financial crisis of 2008 not only didn't anybody listen to him a lot of people actually laughed at him people can't sell their house the inventories are exploding all over the country houses are on the market for 6 months a year there's no biders the price are going to fall through the floor these stimulus checks aren't going to change it who's laugh okay well you know I am at you but you're just way off base there is nothing out there that tells us we're going to have a nice slow down but it's not going to be all let me ask you this you have been mocked on all of these Financial shows going back to 2005 oh my God the stock market not only did we trade above 20,000 finally today the first time after flirting with it and flirting with it for so long we finally not only got above 20,000 but we closed above 20,000 in fact Donald Trump is so excited that the Dows at 20,000 that he actually tweeted out a comment he tweeted out a United uh AP press story the story says Dow Jones Industrial Average trades over 20,000 for the first time latest milestone in record setting drive to which Donald Trump president of these United States tweets out great Dow 20K now if the Dow had crossed 20,000 during the campaign during the election cycle before he was president he would have said big bubble big fat ugly Bubble look out this is a phony Market it's propped up it's going to come down when interest rates go up this is going to get ugly don't believe the Dow he would have been criticizing the Dow believe me we're in a bubble right now and the only thing that looks good is the stock market but if you raise interest rates even a little bit that's going to come crashing down we are in a big fat ugly bubble and we better be awfully careful now he loves it it's great right this is huge this is incredible this is he's taking credit for it hey the Dow is at 2,000 because of me I'm president things are good right it's a bubble if it was a big fat ugly bubble when it was Barack Obama's bubble now that it's Donald Trump's bubble it doesn't change the characteristics the nature it's still a bubble if it was a bubble then it's a bubble now now if Donald Trump no longer thinks the stock market is a bubble well was he just lying when he was campaigning was he just calling it a bubble because it was politically expedient but it was really a bull market you know I guess a bubble is in the eye of the beholder right when it's your bubble it's a bull market when it's somebody else's bubble well then it's a bubble well if it walks like a bubble talks like a bubble you know quacks like a bubble what it is a bubble and the big fat ugly bubble is bigger fatter and uglier now than ever before in fact Trump when he talked about the stock market bubble as a candidate said you know when interest rates go up that's going to be a problem interest rates are going up and those people who are so bullish on the Dow you know yeah the Dow is above 20,000 but it is very expensive on a PE basis but a lot is changing and these changes are not fundamentally good for the stock market what's been driving the stock market well one thing has been Outsourcing right companies uh laying off American workers shutting down uh expensive capacity in the United States opening up uh offices or Contracting Outsourcing in other countries reducing their costs companies have been growing their earnings by Outsourcing right they've been keeping their costs down that's helped the stock market because it's lowering your costs it also keeps consumer prices down but it also keeps profits up of us companies also what's been driving the stock market share BuyBacks where does that come from debt issuance cheap money artificially low interest rates allows corporations to borrow a lot of money and and then buy back stock and of course during the era of plentiful cheap money we've had a bull market in bonds right Financial assets have been gaining in value bond prices rising that helps the stock market and of course as interest rates go down more people want to buy stocks because there's less yield and owning bonds so people go for dividend paying stocks you know stocks stock market valuations are higher the lower the interest rate is the higher the present value of the earnings from that company so everything's been a function of cheap money or cheap Foreign imports all of that is coming to an end whether it comes to an end naturally or because we bring it on ourselves as a result of policy coming out of the Trump Administration what does Trump want to do well first of all he wants us to hire America and buy America that means no more Outsourcing that means corporations will not be able to drive their earnings uh by driving their production offshore if anything he's trying to encourage them to you know bring back some of the production domestically which is going to mean it's going to be more expensive even if we succeed in rolling back some regulation it's not going to be enough to uh make uh the US domestic production more competitive uh than the Global Production I mean that's why companies left the US in the first place and it's not going to be enough as far as just some deregulation to the extent that we actually get it I don't think that in and of itself is going to be enough to tip the balance in favor of domestic production the other thing that's going to happen is maybe there'll be some tariffs maybe there'll be a border tax a border reduction tax or a tariff which automatically makes Imports more expensive and a lot of companies even if they manufacture here they import their components the parts the raw materials and if all that stuff is more expensive it's going to diminish corporate profits and it's going to force corporations to raise prices so now you're going to have falling profits and you're going to have rising Rising prices and what's going to happen to the bond market Bond Market's going down if we're going to have higher inflation which we're getting and look at commodity prices look at I think zinc prices are up some like 80% in the last year look all these industrial metal prices are going up Energy prices are going up agriculture is going up and this is just the beginning and as the dollar starts to go down and it's you know it's we're flirting with a new bare Market in the dollar we've have new bare Market in bonds so now we're going to have Rising inflation and we're going to have a falling dollar and that is not the environment that's conducive for US stocks right the US Stock Market did good when we had falling inflation and a bull market in bonds uh falling interest rates and the American Consumer could rely on cheap money and cheap Imports well those pillars right those pillars of this bubble economy are going away Imports aren't going to be so cheap anymore they're going to be more expensive interest rates are going to go up your home mortgage is going to get more expensive those cheap 0% financing for automobiles that's going away all of this Dynamic is changing and so if we're now going to have a bare Market in bonds a bare Market in Dollar Rising inflation Rising interest rates what's going to work Commodities are going to work gold is going to work Emery markets are going to work foreign stocks are going to work right and that's why they are working I mean last year was the beginning right most people don't realize how the US market underperformed last year because they just focus on the big spike at the end of the year and the fact that DS at 2000 but even with that Spike the us underperformed and this was the first time in many years that that was the case because the US was the only game in town for many many years and that's despite the fact that the dollar did hit a new high up in the post Trump election but it has been surrendering those gains all year we're still a little bit above the we were at the the day after Trump won but I think it's only a matter of time until we take that out and the question is how much longer will the stock market be able to ignore the negative fundamentals for the stock market because Rising interest rates Rising inflation ultimately falling profits and then higher uh discount rates are going to be negative for stocks a lot of people also I see you know comments on some of these video blogs or Facebook you know why I got to give Trump a chance I got to see what he's going to do look I mean I voted for him and I I talked about that when he was a candidate as to why I thought he would be better to have as a president than Hillary Clinton who do you think would be best for the economy between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump I would take my chances on Trump because Trump could be a great president or he might be an awful president Hillary Clinton is going to be an awful president so you might as well take a chance on Donald Trump a lot of the things that he says I agree with some some of the things I don't but I don't even know if Donald Trump agrees with some of the things he's saying because he may just be saying things because it's good politics but a president Trump may be very different than a candidate but I am not you know so polyanic to believe that just because Donald Trump is president that all these problems are going to magically go away I know they can't magically go away I know there's only one way to make them go away and it's going to involve the Dow Jones going down not up the Dow going up means that we're getting further away from solving the problem because interest rates have to go way up that's the only way we're going to solve these problems because we have to have legitimate savings we can't just have the central banks creating money and in order to have legitimate savings we're going to have to have Americans to stop spending and we're going to have to deflate these asset Bubbles and I know to have real meaningful tax relief it's only possible if we have dramatic Cuts in government spending and we're not going to get that I mean yes Donald Trump is talking about cutting some spending maybe he'll succeed in those in those discretionary errors maybe he won't I don't know but he's also talking about increasing spending in other areas and it's far more likely that he'll get the spending increases than the spending cuts so it's not about I'm not giving him a chance I understand the real nature of this problem and and to me the attitude that Trump has and that he's had since he's been elected is that he doesn't want the bubble to pop that's why he's not calling it a bubble anymore you know he's not Preparing People for the tough love he's not talking about how government is going to have to reduce benefits right that people are not going to get what they've been promised he's promising that everything's going to get better right we're just going to keep on winning and winning and winning right that it's just now that he's elected everything bad is going to be good all of a sudden we're going to have real jobs we're going to have Rising income the economy is going to grow for % a year 5% a year that's impossible it can't not on this phony Foundation we can't build that kind of economy on this Foundation we have to let this Foundation collapse and we have to rebuild a real one and we're not taking any of those steps Trump is not Preparing People for those steps now I know there's a school of thought out there people think look you know we don't actually need real savings right we can just create money the deficits don't matter because you know we can just keep printing money and it doesn't matter um we can just keep borrowing because we're never going to have the default right because as long as we're borrowing in our own currency well you know we can always print it there's nothing that stops the Federal Reserve from printing money so we can have as much debt as we want and we never have to default and I guess in theory that's true if you're willing to completely destroy your currency because if the markets believe that that is what you are going to do right that you're never going to pay off your debts you're never going to red reduce your debts that you are going to just print forever then you will have a currency crisis and the only way to stop the currency from becoming worthless would be to massively jack up interest rates in a huge huge way and then you're going to just have Devastation the idea that we can you know o borrow indefinitely in our own currency without destroying the value of that currency see that is the problem and that's the reason that you want to get the deficit under control before our creditors figure out that this is our end game right that's the reason you want to avoid the potential of hyperinflation so you have to act responsibly you have to reduce the debt or balance the debt the budget now you can't just take the attitude that we never have to do it we don't have to worry and the people who are worried about deficits don't understand that we could print money they do understand that we could print money that is the problem that will be the death of our currency we will print it print it into Oblivion and the reality is what's really holding up the dollar now is people don't think we're going to plint it print it into Oblivion they think we're going to get our deficits under control they think we're going to cut spending I don't know why I don't know why anybody would think that any us politician is going to act responsibly if they don't have to it's only the crisis when they have no other choice when all the other politically expedient options are exhausted that's when they do the right thing and even though Trump is a different president maybe it's the same Congress right these guys have been there before right and you know they know what how the game is played and I think now that Trump is there he becomes part of the game just like Ronald Reagan I mean Ronald Reagan probably wanted to cut government more than uh than Donald Trump for sure he did and he didn't government grew and grew and good you know so we'll see what happens but most of it now is on autopilot anyway nobody wants to wants to cut it so you can't just keep borrowing forever and of course real savings just can't be manufactured out of thin air by government we don't want um the government to try to replace legitimate savings because in order to have real economic growth financed by real savings you have to have under consumption that's how the resources get freed up just because government can pretend that it's creating savings by just manufacturing out of thin air with a stroke of a pen doesn't mean it's legitimate and what's happening to the economy is you're getting Mal Investments you're sending false economic signals to the economy you're misallocating resources you're creating bubbles this kind of uh government you know Funny Money engineered out of thin air doesn't replace legitimate savings legitimate savings leads to real sustainable economic growth and Rising living standards when you try to replace actual under consumption with a printing press where nobody sacrifices nobody saves and the government just creates money all you have is inflation and in the short run you know inflation can feel good what's that you know that analogy that that what Warren Buffett you made about peeing in your bed right he says you know you could you you could pee in bed and initially for maybe a few seconds right it feels good right maybe you're you know it's like a relief right oh yeah but then as soon as you realize you know that you just you know soiled your sheets now you have a complete mess that you have to deal with despite the fact that for a few minutes it felt good it would have been better just to get out of bed and go to the bathroom uh and not have to deal with the mess and of course that's the same situ ation here yes inflation can feel good until you have to deal with a mess and it feels good when the stock market's going up and the real estate market is going up and it seems like everything is here for free Everything is Awesome until uh the bubble burst and the bubble burst in a big way in 2008 but you know what we ain't seen nothing yet that was just a small Tremor unfortunately because we didn't allow the restructuring to continue we interrupt it with this massive bubble that we now have that belongs to Donald Trump we are in a big fat ugly bubble right this is now Donald Trump's bubble and I wish as I said before he would still call it a bubble because he needs to put the blame on Obama he needs to put the blame on the FED but by tweeting out that this is great by embracing the stock market he owns it now if it goes down it's his fault now if it pops it's not a bubble it's oh what did you do to ruin this great bull market you know the left the media is ready to pounce on Donald Trump when something goes wrong right the stock market goes down you know they're going to blame it on him so he should be out in front he should be saying yeah the stock market is going to go down because it's overpriced it's too expensive that's part of the solution that's part of making America great again we have to have a real stock market not a bubble we have to have a real bond market we have to have a real a real estate market we have to have legitimate savings we have to have real income people have to spend out of income not out of debt we don't want consumers going into debt we don't want them borrowing money to buy things they can't afford we want them saving money but this transition right is not going to be very pleasant based on the experience of the past but he is not doing that he is not saying that and that again is just going to fuel the trends that I talked about earlier in the podcast of a falling dollar of rising commodity prices rising Consumer Price inflation which will undermine real incomes undermine the real economy and undermine this stock market bubble I
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