저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리는 거대한 버블이 곧 붕괴할 것이라 보고 주식을 대거 매도 중이며, 금리 인상이 미래 현금흐름의 현재가치를 낮춰 주가 폭락을 부를 것이라 주장한다. 버리의 포트폴리오 변화: 지난해 11개 종목(약 1억 6500만 달러)에서 Q3 공시 기준 6개 종목(약 4200만 달러)으로 줄어 3분의 1 이상 매도했다. 유지한 유일한 주식은 민영 교도소·정신건강시설을 운영하는 GEO Group이다. 버리의 과거 이력: 닷컴 버블 붕괴와 주택 버블 붕괴를 예측해 수익을 냈고, 게임스탑 지분 투자로도 성공했다. 버블 진단: 연준의 저금리·양적완화로 2020~2021년 통화의 약 80%가 발행되어 주택(2년간 약 50% 상승), 암호화폐, 주식 전반에 버블이 형성됐다고 진단한다. 억만장자 매도: 래리 페이지·세르게이 브린 각 약 18억 달러, 제프 베이조스 90억 달러 이상(아마존), 일론 머스크 약 127억 달러(테슬라) 매도. 미국 억만장자들의 주식 매도액은 2021년 430억 달러로 2020년 200억 달러의 두 배를 넘었다. 워런 버핏은 300억 달러 이상의 현금을 보유 중이며 에너지 투자를 늘렸다. 현금흐름 할인 논리: 할인율 5% 가정 시 5년간 연 200만 달러 이익(총 1000만 달러)의 현재가치는 약 860만 달러다. 금리가 오르면 미래 이익의 가치가 떨어져 특히 미래 성장에 베팅한 성장주가 타격을 받는다. 금리 전망: 당시 기준금리 약 2.25~2.5%, 인플레이션 약 9%. 연준이 인플레이션을 2~3%로 낮추기 위해 높은 금리를 장기간 유지할 가능성이 크다고 전망한다. 1970년대와 유사한 상황을 언급한다. 리스크/조건: 매도 물량이 한꺼번에 나오면 시장 공급 과잉으로 폭락이 심화될 수 있다. 폭락이 있어도 2008년 사례처럼 수년 내 회복될 수 있다. 투자 전략: 버리는 단기 트레이더 성향이며, 평범한 투자자에게는 버핏식 접근이 더 현실적이라고 설명한다. 인플레이션에 가격 전가력이 있는 석유·가스 기업, 애플 같은 필수 소비재, 저평가된 Ally Financial 등을 예시로 든다. 출연자 전망: 버리는 거대 버블 붕괴와 그로 인한 고통을 확신하며, 주택·주식·암호화폐 전반의 하락을 예상한다.
다듬은 글
Michael Barry literally sold all of his stocks except for one what do you think is the reason the mother of all crushes is about to burst and take down with the entire Market he also called it the greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things last year his portfolio consisted of 11 stocks worth over 165 million dollars but Q3 filing show that he has sold more than a third of his portfolio you're using his portfolio to a little over 42 million dollars comprising of just six stocks if he was just a random guy I would not give him much attention but Michael Barry isn't your typical investor back during the.com bubble he predicted the crash and bet against the market making millions of dollars purchase the stake in GameStop before it went viral bankrupting hedge funds that shorted the stock but that's not what made him so popular his biggest move was factoring the housing crash after analyzing the market he saw a bubble that was about to burst so he bet everything against the housing market which at the time people thought he was stupid but as it always happens the bubble burst and Barry made a fortune both for himself and his clients so if Michael Barry sees a bubble there is a good chance that a bubble is forming you don't have to be a genius to understand that fed's actions in recent years caused the bubble it is just a bubble in one particular industry the bubble is formed in everything house prices are up by almost 50 percent in two years cryptos are hyped and worth trillions of dollars Without Really adding any real value to the market stocks doubled in prices due to access to cheap money the entire Market is turned into one giant bubble or as Michael Perry calls it the greatest bubble of all time we still have no idea when it will burst or how but we know for sure that it will be painful so let's find out which stocks billionaires are selling what kind of assets do billionaires hold during these uncertain times and when will the mother of all crashes burst we'll answer all of these questions and many more but before we do that give this video a thumbs up and let's dive in since the second half of 2021 billionaires have been massively selling stocks why because everyone is expecting a crash they were right because the market actually crashed the only problem is that that is not the end Google Founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin sold around 1.8 billion dollars worth of stocks each Jeff Bezos the world's second richest person has sold more than 9 billion dollars in Amazon stock Elon Musk world's richest person sold around 12.7 billion dollars worth Tesla shares America's billionaires have sold 43 billion dollars in stocks last year more than doubling their 20 billion dollar total in 2020 according to Bloomberg Warren Buffett is sitting on a stockpile of cash worth over 30 billion dollars even though we have almost double digit inflation it is true that it is not as much as last year since he has invested a lot into oil and gas since the energy sector is booming now oil companies are making some of the highest profits ever that will probably continue for another year or two but 30 billion dollars is still a lot of money but why aren't they are investing that cash isn't holding stocks better than cash well the answer is both yes and no you see a dollar today worth more than a dollar tomorrow and making money is the most important aspect of any business of course you can make whatever argument you want that purpose of the business is to build quality products make the world a better place fill the blank however you want but at the end of the day investors primary concern is money so the financial aspect is the most important one that's the entire purpose of capitalism but not all money is equal if a business makes money now it is worth a lot more than a business that will make money in the future you can take that money invest it somewhere else and make more money time equals money so if we want to find out the value of future cash flow we have to find its Net Present Value and how much the future profits will worth today there's a pretty simple formula that we call DCF discounted cash flow the formula is 1 divided by 1 plus interest rate to the power of the period where n is the year for the sake of simplification let's say that their interest rate is 5 which will be our discounted rate let's say a business makes 10 million dollars over the course of the next five years or two million dollars each year if we apply our formula the two million dollars that the company will earn 12 knots from now is worth 1.9 million dollars the next two million dollars two years from now will worth 1.8 million dollars the third 1.7 4th 1.64 the fifth 1.56 all in millions if we add them up we will have a total value of approximately 8.6 million dollars so the company might earn 10 million dollars but because it's five years from now it is real worth is 8.6 million dollars so when the FED raises the rates what happens to that discounted rate it Rises which makes future cash flow less valuable than today which pushes stock prices to plummet especially tax stocks that are often focused on making a lot of money in the future after gaining market share at the time of me writing this script interest rates are about 225 to 2.5 percent but inflation is still high it's around nine percent and Jay Paul is shouting that he will do whatever it takes to bring inflation to a sustainable rate of two to three percent what does that mean exactly super high rates for super long maybe it will be like it was back in the 1970s and what does that mean future cash flow will become significantly less valuable which means companies will become less valuable which means stocks will crash of course the businesses that will put money on the table now will flourish but if we're talking about tech companies like Tesla Google and meta their bet is always in the future and it's not going to be just another crash eighty percent of all money was printed between 2020 and 2021 and it didn't just create enormous inflation but bubbles across all Industries we have a crypto Bible real estate bubble stock market bubble you name it that's why Barry firmly believes that the greatest crush is on the way and that's why he and other billionaires are selling as many stocks as they can they can't sell everything overnight because that will create an oversupply in the market and crush the market anyways so no one wants to see that on top of that a crush doesn't mean the end of the world it just means that you have to wait a few years before practice climb back after the 2008 crash within five years Prices rose back to the 2007 Peak so whoever purchased a property even at the peak of the housing bubble profited by 2022 Time Heals everything but it's only resource but it's only a resource we cannot produce more of it the only stock that Michael Barry didn't sell is Geo Group a public company that invests in private prisons and mental health facilities in North America Australia South Africa and the United Kingdom that doesn't inspires a lot of hop seems like Barry is confident only about one thing people will keep going to jails especially when the mother of all bubbles crashes Michael Barry is more of a Trader than a long-term investor he has shorted Tesla made money on GameStop and actively trade stocks which is not an option for most people to follow a Buffett methodology is way more practical for your average folk he has invested in companies that are making money now companies that can raise their prices regarding of the crisis such as oil and gas companies Necessities like iPhone or MacBooks or undervalued Banks such as Ally Financial as we have previously mentioned on the channel every crisis presents an opportunity the entire world is suffering from inflation but oil conglomerates and cheap manufacturers are making fortunes that's it for today thanks for watching and see you in the next one
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