How to Win BIG in Stocks | Howard Marks | Stocks | Investment

요약 보기

Howard Marks는 투자에서 성공하려면 군중과 다른 '불편할 정도로 특이한' 포지션을 취해야 하며 그것이 맞아야 한다고 주장. 예일대 Swensen의 사례를 들어 초기 발굴과 대담한 투자를 강조. 그러나 시장과 다르게 판단해도 타이밍을 맞추기 어렵고, '너무 앞서가는 것은 틀린 것과 구별되지 않는다'는 교훈을 제시. 엔비디아 과열 언급은 예시일 뿐 구체적 예측은 아님.

다듬은 글

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01. What are the most difficult things while being a contrarian? You know, Dave Swenson ran the investment portfolio at Yale University from 1985 to 2020 when he passed away and he had singular success. And the reason is because when he got to Yale at 1985, he did heavy amounts of private equity, venture capital, and hedge funds at a time when other people didn't do it.

02. He he he did it boldly, but he did it well. And he he picked people who went on to have very substantial careers. And he was willing to make investments uh based on uh his intuition about those people. They didn't have the records. If they had the records, they'd be full of money. and they'd have so much money they couldn't perform well anymore.

03. He got them early and he did it boldly and he wrote a book called Pioneering Portfolio Management around 98 and he he he included in there one of the great uh descriptions I ever heard. He said that investment management requires the adoption of uncomfortably idiosyncratic positions. Those two words uncomfortably idiosyncratic have years of wisdom in them.

04. You can say them in a second but they have years of wisdom. Idiosyncratic this is very important. I talk in the book about second level thinking. We talk about contrarian behavior. These are all interrelated concepts. The point is this. I I was me reading with the meeting with the university class uh last week in New York and I said who in this room has the goal of being average and no hands went up.

05. I said who wants to be above average? every hand went up and I said to them, "Think about this. If you if you think about things the same as everybody else and you have the same data as everybody else, which the SEC is determined to make sure that everybody has the same information and you think about it the same and you process it the same, you re you'll probably reach similar conclusions.

06. You'll probably take similar actions." That's not a very good formula for being superior. Sure. In order to be superior, you have to do something different. You have to diverge from the crowd. So it that may be your contrarian behavior. Um, of course, you can't be a contrarian just for the sake of having contrary opinions.

07. You you have your opinion has to be non consensus and correct. Well, that's not easy because all the other people who constitute the consensus, there are they're not dummies. And when people think that I'm the only smart one and everybody else an idiot, that's when you get into trouble. That's hubris.

08. And so, you know, often times the consensus is as close to being right as you can get. And it's hard to consistently deviate from the crowd and be more correct. But that's what you must do in order to be a superior investor. Idiosyncratic and uncomfortable. If you're taking positions that are different from the positions of everybody else, why do they take those positions?

09. They take those positions because they receive the same information you do. They're bombarded every day with the same newspaper news and and broadcasts and and emotional factors and they reach a certain conclusion and they're not dummies and you reach a different conclusion and you say I'm I'm going to distinguish myself by through through taking a non-conensus action.

10. If you do something different from what everybody else is doing and you're not a little bit uncomfortable, there's something wrong with you. Everybody else thinks Nvidia is great and it's up six times in the last two years and you say it's overpriced. I'm not going to own it. I'm going to short it. And if you do that and you're not a little uncomfortable, there's something wrong.

11. So I think the you ask what's what's the challenge? You have to engage in uncomfortably idiosyncratic behavior and you have to be right. You have to have a strong stomach. And and the reason you need a strong stomach is because we sometimes know what's going to happen. We never know when. And you know, the fact that you conclude that something is underpriced and it's a bargain and you buy it today, it doesn't mean it's going to start going up tomorrow and you may have a long time to wait.

12. The first of the great addages that I ever learned in the early 70s was that being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong. And so if you're a contrarian, you deviate from the herd, you do something different, it's uncomfortable, and you may have to wait a long time. And in that interim, you may look pretty bad.

13. You have to have the intestinal fortitude to to retain your position. You have to have an understanding with your bosses or your clients that permits you to to to do so and to to get through to the other side when if your decisions are correct uh they're validated. Uh but obviously this business of departing from the crowd is not easy.

14. And you know and roughly a hundred years ago Lord Kanes said it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally because unconventional behavior can cause you a lot of problem in the interim. Interesting.