저자: 미상 · 외국인
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조엘 그린블라트의 '주식시장을 이기는 작은 책'을 요약. 시장은 비이성적(Mr. Market)이므로 내재가치보다 싸게 살 때 안전마진을 확보. 매직포뮬라는 자본수익률(ROC)과 이익수익률을 순위화해 합산한 상위 20~30개 종목을 1년 보유 후 리밸런싱하는 방식. 장기 성과가 시장을 크게 웃돌았으나 단기 부진 기간이 있어 인내와 원칙(규율)이 필요. 복잡성을 줄이고 유행을 피하라는 교훈.
다듬은 글
imagine you're walking down the Wall Street Watching big investors pour Millions into stocks hunting for the next big win but what if I told you there's a simple formula one that could turn regular people not just Wall Street Elites into successful investors that's exactly what Joel greenblood a renowned investor professor and founder of Gotham Capital discovered green blood isn't just any investor he's one of the best over a decade he achieved an astonishing 40% annual return at Gotham capital from 1985 to 2005 this remarkable track record helped solidify his reputation as one of the most successful investors and highlighted the effectiveness of his investing principles turning his fund into one of the top performing hedge funds of all time and the strategy behind his success it's shockingly simple a method he calls the magic formula which anyone can use to pick stocks that beat the market this isn't just another investing book filled with theories it's a guide that reveals a straightforward datab bagged formula designed to help anyone whether you're a beginner or an experienced investor choose winning stocks and no you don't need a fancy degree or years of experience to get it this is the better investor helping you achieve your financial goals and Freedom by summarizing books for you about stock market investing finance and learning from successful people in this field and these are top five lessons from the book little book that beats the market written by Joel greenblat lesson number one Mr Market is crazy Joel greenblood was an Adjunct professor at the Columbia University for 9 years before he got his hands to penwriting this book in his class he would ask the students to go to the newspaper and find the name of a big well-run company let's do this exercise now let's say that the company is Apple the product of which is used by almost everyone now the next question he would ask what's the 52 we high and low price of the stock within 1 year people were willing to pay as low as $160 for this stock and as high as almost $240 for it that is a difference of more than 50% from the lowest price in this year if not Apple let's say some boring business let's take a paper manufacturer in India which is JK paper its price range goes from as low as 320 Indian rupees to as high as 630 Indian rupees that's the difference of more than 90% that's a pretty wide range of prices for shares in a pretty short period of time for them to change so much how can this be so why do share price move around so much every year when it seems clear that the values of underlying businesses do not well here's how green blood explains it to his students who knows and who cares he says the truth is that we don't really have to know why people are willing to buy and sell shares of most companies at widely different prices over very short periods of time we just have to know that they do why is this helpful let's think about that if you're confident about understanding the value of company and you estimate it's somewhere between $12 to $15 a share and suppose during the wearing time of the year shares could be purchased at $6 and $11 well if you were conf confident about your estimate and what the business was worth then deciding whether to buy the shares when they were trading near $11 might be difficult decision but when shares in that same company during that same year were available at close to $6 your decision might well become much easier at $6 per share if your estimates of value were close to correct then you would be buying shares in the company for only 50 to 60 cents on the dollar Graham referred to this practice of buying shares of a company only when they trade at a large discount to True Value as investing with a margin of safety written in the book The intelligent investor by Benjamin Graham the father of value investing in short you are never required to act you alone can choose to act only when the price offered by Mr markets appear very low that is when you might decide to buy some shares or extremely high high that is when you might consider selling any shares you owe to the market lesson number two the magic formula what is the magic formula it's a simple two-step recipe for picking stocks with high potential green blood created this formula based on Decades of research and found that it consistently beat the market over time so what does the magic formula do it focuses on identifying companies that are both good and cheap good here means the company has a solid ability to make profits and cheap means the stock is trading at a price that's a bargain compared to the company's actual worth in short the magic formula tells us to invest in companies that are high quality but currently undervalued by the market by buying these companies we are positioning ourselves to benefit as the prices eventually rise to match the True Value to break it down magic formula looks at two main factors to determine if a company is a good investment that is return on Capital and earnings yield firstly return on Capital this is a way to measure how well a company generates profit from its resources if a company has a high return on Capital it means it's making a good amount of money from every dollar it invests in its operations imagine you start a small business selling lemonade you spend $100 on lemons sugar and cups and you make $200 in sales your profit is $100 which means you made 100% return on your initial investment if you see a company with high Returns on Capital it's like a lemonade stand that consistently doubles its money the magic formula prefers companies with a high return on Capital because it shows that they're efficient and profitable second the earnings yield this measures how cheap a company's stock price is compared to its earnings it's a bit like asking how much bang you're getting for your buck let's say you want to buy a new phone you find two models one for $300 and another for $500 but both have the similar features the $300 phone gives you more value for your money just like a stock with a high earnings yield give you more ear earnings for your investment the magic formula looks for stocks with high earnings yield as these stocks may be underpriced by the market creating a good buying opportunity so let's see how the magic formula works first step is to screen for the companies first you make list of the companies with positive earnings which are not in Industries like Finance or utilities greenblood excludes these because their earnings and Capital needs are harder to measure in a simple way then in Second Step he asks us to rank them by return on Capital ranking these companies based on return on Capital from highest to lowest after this the top companies here are the good ones those making most money from their investment then rank the same companies by earning yield from highest to lowest top companies here are the cheap ones meaning you're getting the most earnings for your investment for each company company add up its rank from both lists the companies with the lowest combined rank are considered the best magic formula stocks these are the companies that are both good and cheap finally pick the top 20 to 30 companies from the list green blood suggests holding each stock for one year then rebalancing which means replacing companies that no longer rank as well with new top ranked ones the magic formula works because it's based on logic companies with high Returns on Capital and high earnings yield are often overlooked gems lesson number three patience is the key this approach isn't a fast track to getting rich it's about Building Wealth steadily over time Joel greenblat the creator of the magic formula emphasizes that there will be ups and downs it's completely normal for the strategy to have e when it doesn't outperform the market or even underperforms but the key here is consistency if you stick with it over the long term the formula's result starts to compound and this patience can ultimately lead to strong Market beating returns in a sense think of magic formula like planting a tree at first it might not grow much but if you care for it give it time and resist the urge to dig it up it'll eventually grow tall and strong producing fruits over time likewise with investing the reward is often for those who don't panic and don't get impatient to illustrate green blad shares a real world example in his book he created a portfolio based on the magic formula and tracked it over multiple years in some years it performed well but in others it didn't look so impressive in fact there was a period when his magic formula portfolio underperformed the broader market for 2 years in a row many investors would have felt frustrated and might have been tempted to abandon the strategy but here's what happened in the long term over a 17year span the magic formula delivered an average annual return of more than 20% while the overall Market averaged only close to 10% this is a huge difference and it shows that sticking with the formula paid off significantly over time lesson number four keep it simple one of the most powerful ideas in the little book that beats the market is how green blood keeps things simple many investors try to complicate their strategies by analyzing too much information or chasing Trends the magic formula on the other hand boils investing down to two key metrics this Simplicity isn't just for beginner investors it's a crucial reminder for seasoned investors too it's easy to think that more data equals better result results but that can actually lead to analysis paralysis the feeling of getting stuck because there's just too much to consider instead green lad's formula gives us a way to make smart investment choices without over complicating things despite access to vast resources and expert analysts around 70 to 80% of mutual funds fail to beat the market over the long term lesson number five discipline is what complet completes the puzzle discipline is the foundation of Joel green blood's magic formula while the formula itself is straightforward it only works if you have the discipline to stick to it consistently no matter what the market throws at you one of the biggest challenges for any investor is to hold on to a strategy during tough times or when other hot investment Trends start capturing everyone's attention but green blood emphasizes that without discipline even the best investment formula will fail for this Joel gives an example in the book about Cisco Systems during the late '90s Tech Boo at that time everyone was excited about tech stocks and Cisco in particular was seen as a must-have investment not because of its score financials but because of sheer hype green blood explains that a disciplined approach like the magic formula would help inv investors avoid overpaying for such companies just because they're trendy a super trending stock will have very low earning yield this would eliminate it already by focusing on core fundamentals rather than the market excitement investors can make more rational and ultimately profitable decisions to summarize the stock market doesn't always accurately reflect the true value of companies the wild m mood swings of the Mr Market must be used to buy good companies at discount prices the magic formula focuses on just two metrics earnings yield and return on Capital making it straightforward for anyone to use without over complicating decisions while the magic formula has a proven track record it's important to remember that it doesn't work all the time even during underperforming years sticking with the strategy has proven to deliver substantial long term Returns Green blad's formula shows that Simplicity outperforms complexity avoiding unnecessary complexity helps you avoid emotional pitfalls and make sound decisions discipline is the foundation of Joel green blood's magic formula while the formula itself is straightforward it only works if you have the discipline to stick to it consistently avoid latest trends and fads and stick to the process that's it guys guys if you like the video please like share and subscribe I will see you soon with another video about another investing book until then cheers guys
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