저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Schiff은 미국 증시가 역사적으로 비싸 지금은 매수 시기가 아니며, 달러와 미국 증시의 대폭락 이후 미국 자산을 싸게 살 때를 기다린다고 주장. 트럼프 랠리는 끝날 것으로 보고 미국 주식 매도 후 외국 자산 비중 확대를 제안. 연준의 금리 인하로 금 2,500달러 돌파 및 은 강세를 언급, 은은 30달러 지지선 위 상승 추세로 보며 공매도에 관심 없음. 재정적자 확대와 재정 긴축 필요성, 금리 상승 필요를 강조.
다듬은 글
what I see now is not the environment that I was thinking that I would you know switch to the US for uh to invest what I'm waiting for is for The Real Crash to happen right for the dollar to crash the markets to crash for the deficit fiscal chickens currency chickens to come home to roost so we get a real crash you know something like a 1929 although it you know probably won't be a nominal but we get a bad decline we get a or like like we had in the uh uh early 1980s at the end of the 70s you know we get a big a big drop where US stocks are actually cheap I mean they're historically expensive right now so the time to load the boat with us stocks is not when they're historically expensive I'm waiting for blood in the streets right I want the collapse to happen and then in today's news recap silver short squeeze coming the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in over four years in September sending gold past a record setting $2,500 an ounce the aggressive half percentage Point reduction was in response to the fed's significant progress in bringing down inflation as well as a slowing US economy evoking recession fears Gold's rally which started in mid-February has been underpinned by increased geopolitical risks the upcoming US election Central Bank buying and slowing ETF sales it last traded at $2,744 an ounce up 37% so far in 2024 but silver has done even better notching a year-to-date gain of 46% spot silver is now worth $33.66 as of Monday 2030 New York time last Tuesday it hit $34 the highest level since 2012 silver has benefited mostly due to physical buying in India and China so-called paper silver has also been a factor in July two months of outflows reversed to inflows however October has been the best month on record for gold ETFs after silver struck a near 12year Peak on Monday October 21 City research revised its 6 to 12month forecast for silver prices upward to $40 per ounce from $38 per ounce UBS bank is also bullish on silver with the caveat that the gold silver ratio Rose above 85 to1 in September after hitting lows of around 73x in May despite this we maintain our view that silver is set to benefit from a rising gold price environment which is aligned with fed policy easing analysts at the bank said our expectation that the silver market will remain in deficit over the coming years implies continuous declines in above ground inventories which should help fundamentally underpin prices as well as act as a Tailwind for investor interest we see silver outperforming gold over 12 months with the potential for its ratio to test the long-term average of just below 70x the unexpected price surge has put five US Banks at risk of substantial losses due to their large silver short positions a short squeeze refers to a situation where an individual or legal entity sells an asset in the future without owning it first in the hope of buying it back later at a lower price to make a profit however if the price of this asset increases instead of falling as expected this individual or legal entity is forced to buy it quickly to honor the delivery of their forward sale this Hasty buying movement then contributes to accentuating the rise in prices now we'll show you more clips of the latest interview but remember to smash the Subscribe button and turn on notifications so you do not miss out our daily Recaps enjoy the episode so in that environment when the dollar is we down the US Stock markets are weigh down we're in a really bad dep you know depression environment but I can see the light at the end of the tunnel because I know that what we're doing is going to pay off in the long run that's when I want to take my appreciated foreign currencies and foreign stocks and gold and all that and I want to go in and buy America on sale that's we're nowhere near that point right so I I'm staying the course uh because I'm confident that at the end of the day uh this my strategy is going to Prevail so I I would encourage people because I know most of my clients uh don't have all their money in my strategy some do I have all my money my strategy pretty much uh but a lot of my clients don't uh they have allocations to US Stocks um and with me they have uh their foreign stocks you know I had a US mutual fund at one time uh that focused all on US Stocks um and we we kind of emphasized ones that did a lot of exports but it was all a domestic portfolio but I ended up shutting it down because my clients just didn't want to buy it I mean we had it out there for years in years and I lost money uh because they people saw me as their foreign stock broker not their Dom IC stock broker okay fine I mean that's a niche that I'm I'm happy to I'm happy to operate in because everybody should have some money abroad but to the extent that you still have money in the US Stock Market fade this Trump rally I mean I don't know how many more days or weeks or even months it can go on I mean I have a feeling that the Trump honeymoon is going to end even before you know uh he gets to the altar uh in in January but I would be selling uh into this and and and allocating more money with the dollar now just Rising these last couple of days the Euro actually got below 107 uh today I mean it's not on a new low for the year but you know it was just up at around 111 11 you know 12 high before the election uh so that's that makes far and stocks cheaper um and of course they haven't seen the big rise that uh the US Stocks have seen so you could sell some more foreign stocks because obviously your domestic allocation is now gone up and your foreign allocation on is gone down so I would move more money out of expensive stocks you know Warren Buffett right supposedly the greatest us investor of them all is sitting on a pile of cash and he's probably raising more uh as the Market's going up now he should be sitting on a pile of gold instead of a pile of cash but I guess that's something that he doesn't want to do uh but as a value investor he just does not see value in the US Stock Market and I agree but I think there's a lot more problems coming up for the US Stock Market uh than Warren is willing to admit I mean he may see the problems but he's not going to admit to them anyway let me move forward to uh the uh the Fed rate cut which really was kind of lost in the noise this week I mean normally a Fed rate cut would be a much bigger event uh but given it happened the day after uh the presidential election uh nobody really paid attention now I know there were some people people who thought well maybe the FED won't cut given you know what's now happened right we're going to have all these tax cuts uh bond yields are rising uh that should you know push up inflation most people think that economic growth causes inflation uh they're wrong but that's what they think and so you would think if well we're gonna have a stronger economy uh the FED should reconsider the rate cuts and maybe pause or maybe even hike rates and I thought well there's no chance fed's going to do that you know uh Trump would go ballistic uh they're going to cut and and that's exactly what what they did but you know one of the reasons again the dollar has been so strong is that people are thinking well maybe the FED won't cut as much now that we're GNA have this strong economy um If the Fed was going to do that it would have done it you know I I I don't think so I think the FED is going to cut as much as it can get away with it would have done the same thing under uh Harris and it's going to continue to do it under trump it will cut as much as can you know they're they're they're trying to claim that they're still restrictive they've never been restrictive and now they're less stimulative because they never got rights into restrictive territory in today's news recap silver weekly price Outlook Silver Falls but look likely to bounce the silver market spent most of the week falling but it has shown some signs of Life as we are starting to see the at least abounce a bit towards the end of the week we'll have to see whether or not that holds but either way silver is in an uptrend and and I just don't see why you would choose to fight that Trend at this moment if we can turn around and break above the $ 3250 level then it's possible that the market could go much higher perhaps reaching all the way to the $35 level again underneath the current pricing we have the $30 level just waiting to offer a bit of a floor and as long as we can stay above there there then I think the market is probably going to be okay from an upward trajectory standpoint either way it's worth noting that silver is very choppy and volatile and will continue to be something that people will have to pay close attention to but at the end of the day it's driven by the US dollar interest rates and geopolitics most things right now are starting to point to an upward trajectory again but uh we'll have to wait and see how that plays out either either way I don't have any interest in trying to short the silver market it has been far too strong for far too long if we were to break down below the $30 level then you have to start to ask questions but even then I think you have some work to do before you can get to the place where you think that you should be a short seller of silver keep your position signs reasonable that's the most important thing when trading silver because of its inherent volatility now we'll show you more Clips but first first smash the Subscribe button and turn on notifications so you do not miss out our daily videos and it turns out that we really can't afford to give all these tax cuts uh in fact we really need higher taxes if we can't get some serious Cuts in spending and so that's what we're going to try I'm gonna ask Americans to pitch in and tighten their belts I know you've been struggling uh and it's going to get worse for a while but trust me if we swallow This Bitter tasty medicine in a couple of years we'll be on the right track but you know it's going to be tough we're going to have to make some major cuts to Social Security and Medicare and I know that's going to be difficult for a lot of people who have been counting on the money but you know the money's not there uh there's not much that we could do about that we're gonna have to uh you know cut other spending across the board we're you know make cuts to military spending too interest rates unfortunately have to go up I mean I know I love low interest rates but the economy needs higher interest rates because we don't save enough uh and you know we need we need to make things again we need to manufacture I I mean I was correct about that but the transition is going to take longer than I thought and in order to facilitate it we're going to have to rebuild our savings so we're going to have to spend a lot less uh borrow a lot less and save and we're gonna have to go back to work we're gonna have to roll up our sleeves um and work and I know it's gonna be tough but you know we're going to deregulate we're going to make it easier we're going to we're going to remove a lot of regulations assuming I could get this this agenda through Congress uh but I'm gonna I'm going to fight uh you know with every fiber of my being to try to get uh the Republicans on board with an austerity program of you know cutting government spending uh and and and getting us on a sound uh fiscal footing so we could rebuild uh and really truly make America great again you know uh there's no way Trump's gonna make that speech he he's not going to do that um he he is going to do exactly what he did the first time he was President except worse right that the tax cuts that are on the table now are much bigger than anything that he proposed because he wants to keep all the tax cuts from before right he wants to extend the tax cuts he already has except he wants to bring back the salt deduction right that was one of the things that was in the original uh Trump you know tax cut tradeoff was you know you can no longer get a full deduction for your state and local taxes they capped it at 10 well he's promised to get rid of that in the renewal so it's an even bigger tax cut than the original one but on top of that right he wants to exempt um tips overtime Social Security policemen uh you know uh firemen uh veterans I mean all the the various tax breaks that that that he's thrown out there at a time when the deficit dwarfs what it was and the deficits dwarf what they were when when Trump first came to office but you know it all sounds great and people are all optimistic yeah my taxes are going to get cut and and TR Trump keeps talking about how great the economy was when he was president before you know it was the greatest economy in the history of the country and now it's the worst economy in the history of the country and that they're just you know they're separated by just a year or two and the whole difference between we went from the greatest economy in the history of the world to the worst economy in the history of the world just because we had Harris and Biden for four years I mean if the economy really was the greatest that it's ever been there is no way it could have been wrecked so quickly uh by by Biden I mean you can't turn the greatest economy in the history of the world into the worst economy in the history of the world just with one inflation reduction act or one chipped act yeah I know they were bad bills but a strong economy could have absorbed it we you know the problem was we didn't have a strong economy we had a bubble we had a fragile economy in fact we've been blowing a bubble in this economy ever since the 1990s Greenspan is the architect and that's a wrap Peter Schiff just laid out his bold predictions for gold the dollar and the broader economy what do you think of his analysis do his insights resonate with you or do you have a different take let us know in the comments and if you're here for more hard-hitting insights and No Nonsense predictions don't forget to hit subscribe now check this video right here because you'll love it I'll see you on the other side
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