저자: John · 외국인
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결론: 스탠리 드러켄밀러의 2015년 강연을 바탕으로 한 투자 교훈 6가지를 소개하는 교육 영상이며, 구체적 종목·가격 전망 발언은 없다. 영상은 드러켄밀러를 역대급 투자자로 소개하며, 그가 소로스 밑에서 포트폴리오 매니저로 시작했고 40년간 연간 손실이 거의 없었다고 설명한다. 2008년 금융위기 때도 약 11% 수익을 냈다고 언급한다. 첫째, 기업 투자에 대한 열정이 필수라고 강조한다. 투자는 퍼즐을 푸는 일이며 기업에 흥미가 없으면 성공하기 어렵다는 주장이다. 둘째, 좋은 멘토를 찾고 장기적으로 생각하라고 권한다. 초반 커리어에서는 높은 급여보다 배울 것이 많은 환경을 택하라는 조언이다. 셋째, 분산투자보다 집중투자를 강조한다. 버핏 등 위대한 투자자들은 확신이 있는 종목에 크게 베팅했으며, 매년 가장 확신하는 두세 개 아이디어가 다른 투자보다 성과가 좋을 가능성이 높다는 주장이다. 넷째, 현재가 아닌 몇 달~몇 년 뒤 기업의 모습을 그려보라고 한다. 현재 실적에만 집중하면 손해를 본다는 논지다. 다섯째, 개별 기업 실적보다 연준의 행보와 유동성이 전체 시장 방향에 더 중요하다고 주장한다. 2020년 코로나 이후 연준의 자금 공급으로 주식시장이 상승한 사례를 예로 든다. 여섯째, 큰 돈은 약세장에서 번다는 의견이다. 드러켄밀러는 자신의 이익 중 약 80%가 약세장에서 나왔다고 추정하며, 2013년 연준의 채권 매입과 저금리 시기에 공격적으로 투자해야 했다고 회고한다. 영상 속 발언은 과거 사례 회고와 일반 원칙이며, 특정 자산의 향후 1~3개월 방향에 대한 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
in my mind stanley drunken miller is one of the greatest investors of all time and true investors know who he is but for most common retail investors he's a name that you don't hear much about but if you compare his performance to the greats they're actually pretty comparable stan drunken miller started his career as a portfolio manager for george soros and what he's also famous for is in his four decades of investing he pretty much did not have a single down year and even during the great financial crisis in 2008 he still managed to have returns of 11 a year and before he converted his fund into a family office he had returned about 30 percent a year for about 30 years so before i tell you more about him welcome back to my channel my name is john and one of the things i like to do is study great investors read transcripts watch interviews just to see if there's any tips that they can offer that i can learn from to make myself a better investor in 2015 stan druckenmiller gave a speech to a small group of people and in this speech he shared some of the tips for how he got the performance and the record that he has so i want to share the top tips with you guys number one incredible passion stan drunken miller discusses how you really have to have a passion for learning about businesses investing is about learning to solve puzzles and it's a chance to really essentially gamble for a living if you aren't passionate about businesses buying a stock is essentially buying a piece of a business so if you can't get excited about businesses how could you really be successful investing in individual names number two finding good mentors and focusing on long term so what stanley is saying here is that early in your career if you have a choice between a higher pay or a job where you can find a good mentor and learn a lot you should take the mentor and learning a lot over the high pay and stanley talks about how a lot of young kids these days that he sees are focused so on the short term and not thinking about the long term and we actually see that currently in the markets right we have a lot of people that are focused on the hype names that move up really quickly instead of focusing on stocks that will give them gains in the long run number three a unique risk management system drunken miller talks about when he first entered into the investing world he quickly learned that one of the models that people go by is that bulls make money bears make money and pigs get slaughtered and what it's essentially saying is that if you're being greedy then you're going to get slaughtered and what stanley drunken miller quickly found out was that the only way to get long-term returns in the business that are superior is by being a pig and all that diversification and other stuff that he learned in business school are some of the most misconstrued concepts ever and drunken miller went to name some of the greatest investors of all times the buffetts the icons the langons they were all very concentrated in their portfolios if they found something that they really believed in then they were betting the ranch and that's how he developed his investing philosophy stanley even said each one of us could go back and look at our top two ideas each year and most likely those two ideas that really excite us are likely to outperform all the other investments that we tend to get into and he says that 98 of people that he knows one of the biggest mistakes that they make is that they feel like they need to be in a bunch of stuff at one time number four never invest in the present so one tip that stanley has is that you should never focus on the present or what the company has done in the past one of the things he likes to do is to visualize where the company will be months or years from now and that's where he expects the price to be his belief is that too many people think about the president and what the business is currently doing today and if you do that he thinks that you'll get run over so number five focus on central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity so what stanley mentions here is a tip to discuss the overall general markets what he's saying is that earnings for stocks don't really matter when we talk about the overall markets and what direction the overall market's going to go what matters what the fed is doing and liquidity and we can kind of see that right last year with cobit you would have expected that we would be in a big recession but because the fed is putting so much money that money is creeping into the stock market and we are seeing highs day after day week after week month after month so when it comes to the overall markets paying attention to what the fed is doing and what liquidity looks like is really important number six the big money is made in bear markets stan drunken miller estimates that 80 percent of the profits that he's ever made in his life are during bear markets stan cites 2013 as a time where he noticed that the fed was buying bonds for the first time in its over 102 year history we also had interest rates at all-time lows in that period of time so although people were out there talking about doom and gloom in 2013 and the upcoming depression stan felt that that was a time to get very aggressive in the markets and you know what he was actually right so that's really no different than what buffett says about be greedy when people are fearful so that's the six tips i gleaned from the transcript of a speech given in 2015.
hope you guys found this useful and you can incorporate some of these tips into your own investing see you guys in the next video
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