저자: CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
멍거는 좋은 기업을 적정 가격에 사는 전략이 유리하며 위대한 기업은 보통 PER 25~35배 수준이라고 설명한다. 미국 자산운용사 대부분은 인덱스 펀드 대비 성과를 내기 어려워 상위 5%에 들어야 승산이 있다고 주장한다. 또 다라이 저널(Daily Journal)은 401K 옵션을 전부 인덱스 펀드로 구성했다고 언급한다. 좋은 기업을 식별하기 어렵고 우량주는 저평가 상태로 오래 머물지 않는다는 점을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
definitely computed how much he'd made in Geek compared to everything he had ever done in his previous life. And so you can argue that Ben Graham himself woke up once. What uh why do you think that you so early on were willing to to to come up with this idea of paying up for for great businesses? Well, because it's so obvious and I'm good at doing things that are obvious.
Of course, it was obvious. If you wanted to have particularly good result, you got to do a great company. You know, I I recognized that greatness was good. You know, big deal. Charlie Mer genius recognizes greatness is good. Of course, greatness is good. Paul Iini from Toronto, Canada, writes in. He says, "When you're evaluating a company for potential investment, what do you play?
I'll let somebody else do the math on that, figure out the timing. Um, Matt McAllister writes in and says, "Charlie, you've described too much diversification as the worsification being at best an average return producing strategy. In light of that thought, if one was allowed only one stock to hold for a very long time and it would be the most important asset to him and his family and their future well-being, please describe what you would look for in that stock or company and also talk about the features that you would consider most important when you're trying to to figure that out.
Well, it helps to have a somebody that's locked into a good position. So, a great business would be what you'd like. And of course, you'd like a great management, too. And occasionally, we've had both to ride together for a long, long period. And but of course, everybody's looking for the same thing.
And the trouble with it is you will find when you get into those good businesses in a place as picked over and analyzed as American stocks are and you can imagine the amount of time spent thinking about American stocks. And you will find by and large in America if it's really a great business it's at least 25 times earnings and maybe 30 or 35 or something.
So that makes it much harder of course because if something goes wrong you can lose a lot of your investment and and of course that's what makes investment so difficult is the fact that the good business the good businesses don't stay cheap. You got to somehow recognize a good business before it's recognizable as a good business.
That's very hard to do. Some people get good at it but not many. I don't think I would want 95% of the people who are America's professional asset managers I wouldn't want working for me really. I think it's that hard. I think you need to be in the top 5%. To have a reasonable chance. It's it's very difficult.
Now it's not difficult just buy an index fund and sit on your ass. That that that's the great default position. your assets. And by the way, that's that's if you sit look at the Daily Journal Corporation, we just put in a 401k plan. What are the investment options for the people at work? Zero. It's all index funds.
And and if you what percentage of American what percentage of American 401ks have our plan index funds required about zero am I right or am I wrong of course I'm right it's a logical thing to do okay percent worth two and 20 uh sometimes Sometimes being worth 2 and 20 I would say that is way less than 5%.
The man who's worth 2 and 20 that is really that's getting that's getting very rare indeed particularly under modern conditions where every niche is occupied. It's you you really if you take early stage venture capital like Sequoia does, how many people have a Sequoia like record? I don't think there's one in a hundred that has a Sequoia type record.
Chris Frerieded from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania writes in and says, "You've said previously that and by the way, even Sequoia makes even Sequoia makes an occasional mistake. They, you know, everybody does." But overall, you still think it's worth it? Oh, yeah. Yeah. Okay. So Chris Freed writes in from Philadelphia and says, "You've previously you've said previously that
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