저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 단기적으로 시장이 과매수 상태라 지금은 신규 매수를 자제하고 관망하는 편이 낫다는 주장. 핵심 근거: S&P 500 독점 단기 오실레이터가 8까지 올라 과매수 구간이며, 보통 5 부근에서 이익실현하는 자신의 원칙상 매우 위험하다고 봄. 과거 8 수준은 연준 방향 전환 시기에만 나타났음. 행동 지침: 이미 수익이 난 보유 주식은 일부 이익실현 후 나중에 더 낮은 가격에 재매수하라고 권고. 지금 신규 진입이나 연금 계좌 적립식 매수는 보류 권장. 거시 환경: 소비자물가지수가 예상보다 약간 높았으나 연준의 금리 인하를 막을 정도는 아니라고 봄. 무역 협상은 잠정 합의 소식이 부정확하다고 평가. 경기침체는 가능성이 낮다고 봄. 개별 종목: 스냅온(SNA) 장기 보유는 좋은 기업으로 평가하나 최근 변동성이 크고 공매도 물량이 많아 '어려운 보유(tough own)' 종목으로 언급. 바로미터 종목 여부에는 명확한 결론 없음. 리스크: 과매수 상태에서 부정적 뉴스가 나오면 급락할 수 있으며 언제 어떤 악재가 올지 알 수 없다는 점을 가장 큰 위험으로 제시. 출연자 전망: 시장이 3~5% 조정받을 때까지 기다리라는 입장.
다듬은 글
I'm a bit of a Quadra here we're in a pretty decent moment for stocks this is one of the lightest periods for earning something I know in my bones cuz I set aside time every morning to go over the key conference calls and today the only one I had to focus on was Oracle which rarely has any serious pin action no major earnings reports means no major blow ups we're not much use either for the macro front surely we had a slightly hotter than expected consumer price index figure this morning but nothing that would scare j-pal away from cutting interest rates at the next Fed meeting honestly I think pals in a tough position yes he raised rates way too fast hey hey that was a mistake it was a big mistake but it's not like the economy's exhausted and he's being labeled a bonehead by President Trump which is the kind of thing you'd expect to hear from someone like me but I'm not the person that says we had some movement on the trade talks but you know where I stayed on this issue I'd have to be anything meaningful here one way or another this soon I understand it to be no truth to the story floated today I'm an interim trade deal that things aren't let's put it this way these are just obviously bid maybe that's pretty let's say sanguine so there aren't a lot of land mines here in theory I should feel pretty darn good about the stock market yet there's one thing I'm truly worried about and it's a big thing I'm talking about the standard and poors proprietary short-range oscillator the one I've subscribed to for 30 years because it gives you the best video whether the market is getting overbought meaning there's too much enthusiasm or oversold meetings too much pessimism and right now the outsider says be careful be very careful because that's the last night it stands at 8:00 and that's not just over boy it's way over boy normally my discipline says you take profits when the oscillator goes about five seeing it eight makes me very nervous now maybe my concerns will prove to be well faced the last time we were this overbought was when j-pal changed course and suddenly we were no longer fighting the Fed so it made perfect sense for stocks to were higher the market just wouldn't quit but that was for good reason just earlier though I haven't made such money I mean any really much money to speak up buying stocks when the oscillator is at eight in the same way I haven't made much money selling stocks when it's at minus eight that's the classic summer extremely oversold at these levels the buyers usually run out of ammo just as the sellers getting sauce to win down too far too fast so as I said in my action words plus comm Club call this morning over the street comm if you have some gains here you got my permission to ring the register take something off the table you buy it back later lower it's the responsible thing to do of course some of you probably think I'm being plain old superstitious I mean think about hey just Warren Buffett look at a nice letter but I think that's the wrong way to look at it Buffett is a buy-and-hold guy if he buys the stock and he goes down so you can't afford to think of a very long term perspective when yours richest Buffett you can stay solvent for longer than the market can stay wrong for the rest of us it makes sense to try to get the best cost basis that's why I think this is a bad time to buy when the market gets this overbought we tend to get a really vile and pull back on any negative news when I don't know where that baby is gonna come from this is the toughest thing about following my discipline when it comes to this darn isolator I have no idea what might go wrong I just know that until we work off this over what reading there's a serious risk of being blindsided so if you're thinking about starting a position to stock tributing money for your IRA 401k - it s be fun I'm saying it may make sense just wait this one out a little the oscillator is really wrong and it's telling me you're likely to get a better entry point when in doubt remember discipline always Trump's conviction and right now my discipline says don't buy don't buy Nick and Arizona neck professor creamer how are you I am well thank you how about you Nick I'm good good and I absolutely love the show and wanted to thank you for teaching me how to teach myself more about investing you're terrific that is my goal I try to teach every night here this is my classroom thank you well thank you and I have a two-parter on snap-on tools ticker symbol SNA okay so I've been I've owned snap-on for about a year love the company they have their best in class reputation great management a good balance sheet and a healthy dividend that's been steadily growing so first do you think snap owns a good long term investment at this level and second because of how diversified snap-on is across so many industries from auto to defense to tech all over the world including the PRC do you think this stocks worthy of being sort of a barometer stock like the transports I think it used to be a great growth stock and I think it's been very choppy of late and that's because I think that maybe some of their prices are too high there's a little more competition but most importantly there's a lot of short sales in it and every time Nick Pinchuk says something good they interpret negatively so I what I would call it is a tough own and I've got to tell you Nick one of my things that I teach people is that a tough phone is too difficult tone marked in Pennsylvania mark hey Jim I have a question sir I've been saving a large sum of money to start the at my entry into trading but with the recession scare looming the China trade were going on and the 2020 election ahead should I start investing now with this sum of money wait to the new year new year's over or wait until this all blows over I don't think we're gonna have recession I think you just wait till the market goes down say three four or five percent we're too close to the all-time high were way too overbought and while it looks like it's a very good time to buy I think this last five days have made a lot of people pretty darn cute place all right so listen up we're overbought right now so think twice before buy because any negative news could turn into a vial and pull back don't buy don't don't there's much more mad money at it offers value conscious products with a socially conscious message private player ever Lane withstand a tough retail environment I'm gonna sit down with the CEO and it's brand new Brooklyn outpost to find out then does your portfolio have what it takes to see this market I'll be the judge of that when we play my diversified and know your cause rapid fire it's a nice addition of the lightly round so stay with Kramer tomorrow kickoff the trading day was squawk on the street live from post nine at the NYC David you know your house your apartment please meet your party yeah you about it this isn't a pride or and YouTube Center warms up tax more I'm wearing apartment it all starts at 9:00 a.m. Eastern
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