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Great time to check in with Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, chief investment officer of Fundstrat Capital as well as a CNBC contributor. You weren't really impressed with June that much in terms of the the averages. Kind of stalling out and you expect that you expect July to be better as valuations are more reasonable and and sentiment is not crazy bullish.
Does that sum things up? Uh yeah. I mean July we're going to get Q2 earnings. Right. And uh in the first quarter earnings came in way better than expected. And so the market's PEs actually lower now than it was in January by one point, one full turn. And I think second quarter earnings are going to surprise to the upside again.
So the market's going to get cheaper again. And that means there's a room for PE to expand. So I think July is going to be a stronger month for stocks. 8,000 is doable this year. Yes. The S&P. Yeah. And uh that's yeah, cuz 8,000 would be roughly 20 times 2027 earnings of 400. I think that's a low estimate.
I think the you know, the PE multiple could be 22 or better. So that would be you know, even 84 8800 kind of would be the upside into year end. But I do think between now and year end there should be you know, something that might feel like a bear market, too. Not in July, but maybe, you know, between August and October.
Why not in July? Uh well, I think for things Joe said that you know, August June wasn't a great month. Uh and so and I think there are a lot of fund managers trailing the benchmark this year. You know, only 23% of fund managers are beating the large cap growth index. That's the lowest number in almost 5 years.
So I think there's going to be a lot of dip buying this month. What is a What do you mean it feels like a bear market? Doesn't go down It doesn't go down 20%? Uh you know, it might And what average are we talking are we talking about the Nasdaq or the S&P? I think both. You know, I this year the February to April decline felt like a bear market and that was only 7% Um but I think,
you know, in later this year we have a few things that will test the market. You know, one is the the market is going to test the new Fed because he has a new framework and a new way to look at inflation and we know that there's going to be an a gradual unlock of the SpaceX shares and that's a a headwind.
And I do think uh you know, there is going to be a cumulative shortage of petroleum products. So, that's a headwind and I think margin debt's kind of high. So, I think four things that could unravel in a way that might feel like a bear market. Final question, uh Bitcoin down about 16% I think for the month now, past month.
What what 102 now? 103? Something like that? Where do you think it Where do you think we're going? I know you have you have big ambitions for Bitcoin. Yes, we do. Um I will tell say one thing that has shifted for us in the last few years. Uh stablecoins are usurping part of the role that we thought uh Bitcoin would play.
So, our bullish forecast out there is 1.5 million uh by 2030. Uh given what's happening to stablecoins, uh which are serving emerging markets in a way that we thought Bitcoin would. Um uh I think we could take maybe $300,000 off of that bullish case just just for stablecoins. So, uh watch that space.
Stablecoins are um are scaling here I think much faster than anyone would have expected. this this is news because this is a this is a different expectation. To the extent that stablecoins become an even larger part of the market, would you would you take that would you take the top top number down even further?
I mean, if if stablecoins do become this, you know, the sort of transaction uh currency of choice, if you will. How How does that change the dynamic of of Bitcoin being the sort of digital gold? So, I was holding all other things equal. Uh digital gold, if you look at what's happened to the gold market, uh you know, we were saying digital gold could uh usurp half of that market or at least become as big, uh you know, become additive in some way.
Um so, that's the other dynamic at work here. And the other thing is, institutions, this is a new asset class. Stablecoins are cash. They're dollars. Um Bitcoin is a global monetary system. It is the lead in a new asset class, and it's a technology all wrapped in one. Uh so, while I say $300,000, that would be holding gold constant, let's say.
Um gold has doubled here uh since we made that forecast. Uh so, again, there are puts and takes. Uh I just wanted to highlight stablecoins because uh they are They are happening faster. They're They're scaling faster. Think emerging markets are huge in this regard. And we're starting to see institutions in the United States uh focused on new payment rails uh uh with stablecoins at the core.
So, um very interesting movement. I think the whole space gets bigger. This is uh you know, a global monetary system uh really uh going digital uh without government oversight, very private. So, it's a very big idea. Yeah, that doesn't doesn't change your view of the of digital gold aspect of the Bitcoin at all.
And I that that not even related to it. So, maybe you had 1.2 million based on digital gold and 300 another 300 from the the transactional. So, I I I think I understand what you're saying. And institutions really have just dipped their toes into this space. We have just started, so we we have a long way to go.
you don't have to ensure, you know, there's a lot of things that are better than gold about Bitcoin. And And most of the the most important things are this the same. So, it's either better or the same. So, I I it could at least be half. It could at least be half of gold. Absolutely. Absolutely. Absolutely.
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