저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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미국 경제가 실업률 과소집계, 물가(CPI) 과소집계, 연준의 저금리 정책 등으로 실제로는 어려움에 처해 있다는 주장이다. 실업률: Schiff는 구직 포기자와 파트타임을 원하는 사람을 포함하면 실제 실업률이 두 자릿수일 것이라고 주장한다. 실업 증가는 소비 감소, 기업 이익 감소, 추가 해고로 이어진다고 설명한다. 연준 정책: 저금리가 기업 투자를 어렵게 만들고 주식시장 거품과 실물경제 자원 배분 왜곡을 낳았다고 본다. 영상에서는 기업투자/GDP 비율이 장기간 정체되어 있다는 점을 근거로 든다. 정부 정책: 최저임금과 복지 프로그램이 노동 유인을 떨어뜨린다는 주장을 펴며, 이를 줄이면 경제가 강해질 것이라고 본다. 물가: 공식 CPI가 의료·교육·주거비를 제대로 반영하지 못해 실제 인플레이션은 공식 발표의 약 두 배, 대안 지표(ShadowStats) 기준 약 10% 수준이라고 주장한다. 이에 따라 실질임금 하락폭이 정부 발표보다 훨씬 크다고 말한다. 반론과 리스크: 진행자는 기술 변화와 세계화 등 다양한 요인을 언급하며 정부의 생계 보장 역할을 강조한다. 영상은 국가 부채 증가, 소득 불평등, 코로나19 충격을 추가 요인으로 지적하고, 정부의 부양책과 민간의 적응력을 낙관 요인으로 제시한다. 종목·자산별 방향: 영상에서 개별 종목이나 지수에 대한 1~3개월 가격 전망은 언급되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
hey there when we think of the United States one of the first things that comes to mind is its vibrant economy from the bustling cities to the vast farmlands the U.S economy is a complex and dynamic system that touches the lives of millions of people every day it's no wonder that the state of the U.S economy is constantly in the news with analysts policy makers and everyday folks alike weighing in on its ups and downs however despite its vigrant economy we can't also deny the fact that these days the U.S economy faces trouble and we will tell you the reasons why in an interview with Peter Schiff on the Megyn Kelly show he pointed out different reasons why the U.S economy deteriorates over time by the way Peter Schiff is an American businessman Financial commentator and author who is best known for his views on economics and investing Peter Schiff is the CEO and chief Global strategist of euro-pacific capital Incorporated a brokerage firm that focuses on foreign Securities he is also the founder and chairman of shiftgold a precious metal stealer so going back Schiff pointed out that one of the reasons why the U.S economy is in trouble is because of the high unemployment rate so I think if you objectively measured the unemployment rate and included all the people who are not working but who would be working if they believe they can find a job or who have settled for a part-time job when they'd prefer a full-time job I'm sure the actual unemployment rate is in the double digits to begin with it is important to understand how unemployment affects the economy when people are out of work they have less money to spend which can lead to a decrease in demand for goods and services this in turn can lead to lower profits for businesses and potentially even more layoffs additionally when there are a large number of unemployed people it can put pressure on government resources as more people need assistance with things like Health Care housing and food Schiff has argued that the high unemployment rate in the U.S is one of the main reasons why the economy is struggling he points out that despite a growing stock market and low interest rates many Americans are still struggling to find work according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the unemployment rate in the U.S was 4.9 percent in January 2016 which was down from its peak of 10 percent in 2009 but still above pre-recession levels Schiff believes that one of the main reasons for this high unemployment rate is the federal reserve's monetary policy he argues that the fed's decision to keep interest rates artificially low has made it difficult for businesses to invest in new projects and hire new employees in shifts view the low interest rates have created a bubble in the stock market which has led to a misallocation of resources and a lack of investment in the real economy to support his argument shift points to the fact that despite the low interest rates business investment in the U.S has been relatively weak according to data from the Bureau of economic analysis business investment as a percentage of GDP has been stagnant at around 17 percent since 20 this is in contrast to the late 1990s and early 2000s when business investment was around 20 percent of GDP Schiff also argues that the high unemployment rate is a result of government policies that discourage work he points to things like the minimum wage and government welfare programs as examples of policies that make it less attractive for people to work Schiff believes that if the government were to reduce or eliminate these programs more people would be motivated to enter the workforce which would ultimately lead to a stronger economy critics of shift's argument point out that there are many factors that contribute to the unemployment rate including technological change in globalization they also argue that the government has a role to play in ensuring that all Americans have access to basic necessities like health care and food and that these programs can help support people while they look for work despite these criticisms it is clear that the high unemployment rate in the U.S is a major concern for many people whether or not schiff's argument is completely accurate it is important to recognize that there are many factors that contribute to the state of the economy and that finding solutions to these problems will require a comprehensive approach that takes into account a wide range of factors another factor that contributed as to why the U.S economy is in trouble this understating inflation Schiff argues that the government has been misleading the public about the true rate of inflation which has led to a significant decline in real wages for many Americans and I think the real decline is being masked by the fact that we are understating inflation I think the actual inflation rate is about double what the government will admit to and that means that the real decline in wages is much greater inflation is the rate at which the overall price level of goods and services in an economy is increasing over time the most commonly used measure of inflation in the is the Consumer Price Index CPI which is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics the CPI is used to track the prices of a basket of goods and services that represent the typical spending patterns of consumers in the U.S Schiff argues that the CPI significantly understates the true rate of inflation in the U.S he believes that the government has manipulated the calculation of the CPI to make it appear lower than it actually is Schiff points out that the CPI does not take into account certain factors such as the rising cost of Health Care education and housing which are all significant expenses for most Americans to support his argument shift sites data from alternative measures of inflation such as the shadowstat's alternate CPI which takes into account a broader range of goods and services than the CPI according to the shadowstat's alternate CPI the true rate of inflation in the U.S is closer to 10 percent rather than the two to three percent that the government typically reports Schiff argues that the understated inflation rate has had a significant impact on real wages in the U.S real wages are wages adjusted for inflation meaning they reflect the actual purchasing power of a worker's salary according to Schiff the real decline in wages is much greater than what is reported by the government as the CPI significantly understates the true rate of inflation to illustrate this point shift sites data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that shows that the median weekly earnings of full-time workers have only increased by three percent since 2000 after adjusting for inflation this is in contrast to the 21 increase in median weekly earnings that was reported in terms I not adjusted for inflation in other words while wages may have increased on paper the actual purchasing power of those wages has declined significantly due to inflation in addition to high unemployment rates and understated inflation there are several other factors that have contributed to the current state of the U.S economy like the high level of national debt growing income inequality Gap and Health crisis like that of coveted 19 pandemic that led to widespread business closures job losses and reduced consumer spending while the challenges facing the U.S economy are significant there is also reason for optimism the government has already taken steps to address some of these issues such as providing stimulus packages to support individuals and businesses during the pandemic Additionally the private sector has shown resilience and adaptability in the face of economic uncertainty finding new ways to innovate and create value moving forward it will be crucial for policy makers businesses and individuals to continue working together to address the challenges facing the U.S economy this will require a combination of short-term measures such as targeted stimulus packages and job training programs as well as longer term investments in infrastructure education and Technology by working together and taking a strategic approach we can create a more prosperous and sustainable economy for all Americans what do you think about this topic let me know in the comments section below don't forget to like share and subscribe I'll see you in the next video
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