Howard Marks Learning From Past Market Crashes

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2008년 금융위기 때 Oaktree가 투자한 경험을 바탕으로, 공포 속에서도 침착함을 유지하고 사이클을 이해하는 것의 중요성을 강조한 영상. - 결론: 극단적 공포가 지배하는 시기에는 규율과 선별보다 자금과 용기가 중요하며, 매수한 투자자가 큰 수익을 얻었다. 과거 상황 설명 - 1970년대 투자업계 취업이 매우 어려웠고, 60년대에 업계에 있었던 사람만 2008년 무렵 경험을 가질 수 있었다. - 2007~2008년 서브프라임 상품의 과도한 레버리지 투자로 주요 은행과 투자은행이 손실을 입었다. - 증권 가격과 대출 가격이 폭락했고, 유동성이 말라붙으면서 시장 활동이 얼어붙었다. 당시 심리와 대응 - 사람들이 세계 종말을 이야기할 만큼 공포가 극심했으나, 루스벨트의 말처럼 실체 없는 두려움이 문제였다. - 역사와 사이클을 공부하면 감정의 영향을 줄이고 상황을 꿰뚫어 볼 수 있다고 강조했다. 투자 판단 논리 - 금융 세계의 종말을 예측하기는 어렵고, 대부분의 경우 금융 세계는 끝나지 않는다. - 투자했는데 세계가 끝나면 어차피 상관없고, 투자하지 않았는데 세계가 끝나지 않으면 일을 제대로 하지 못한 것이라는 단순 계산을 제시했다. 실제 행동 - Oaktree는 2008년 마지막 15주 동안 주당 약 6억 5천만 달러, 총 약 100억 달러를 투자했다. - 2008년 말 신용시장 또는 2009년 초 주식시장에서 매수에 나선 투자자는 큰 돈을 벌었다. 핵심 메시지 - 이런 시점에는 보수주의, 위험 통제, 규율, 인내, 선별성보다 돈과 실행 용기가 필요하다. - 사이클의 특정 국면을 이해하고 활용하는 것이 수익의 원천이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. to have been in the investment business in 08 and to have the experience of 74 you had to be working by definition 34 years but the truth of the matter is that the investment business was terrible in the decade of the 70s you couldn't get a job in the 70s i know people classmates of mine from grad school who wanted to go into investment business but rather than get out in 69 when i did they got out in 70 they couldn't get a job in the investment business for their whole lives and they dug in in other fields but the point is you had to have your job in the 60s and that means by 08 you had to be working more than 40 years how many people worked more than 40 years so by definition the pool of people with the with the recognition of the past pattern is is very small and you know clearly we ran into very difficult problems the over investment on high leverage in the subprime products in 0.56 caused the you know the loss of some of the most important banks and and investment banks and people started talking about the end of the world and uh security prices melted down loan prices melted down and activity froze because everybody was uncertain will there be a tomorrow if i buy anything today will it be a market tomorrow will it have any value tomorrow and all liquidity dried up and as i say people were talking about the end of the world and it was the most pronounced cycle that that that we've lived through uh but still there was really no reason i mean i i kept thinking about what roosevelt said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself people were just afraid they weren't afraid of anything rational they were just afraid and what you had to do is you had to keep your wits and you know one of the hopes is that if you read history if you if you read the book if you understand cycles you will be able to reduce the emotional influences at that time and cut through them and and maybe we'll just say keep your wits about you so we concluded in late 08 after the bankruptcy of lehman brothers put the markets into free fall that uh you know uh will the will the financial world end or not and what we said was that it's hard to predict the end of the financial world if you conclude that the financial world will end it's hard to have any idea what to do and most of the time the financial world doesn't end we also made a very simple calculation should we buy or not well if we invest and the financial world ends kind of doesn't matter but if we don't invest and the financial world doesn't end then we didn't do our job so by that you know here we are in an environment where really people had no idea what was coming next and and we're talking about the end of the world and i thought the analysis was rather simple that we had to buy so at oak tree we invested 650 million dollars a week in the last 15 weeks of of 08 that's about 10 billion and that's really all you had to do it almost didn't matter what you did as long as you bought and it was a point in time in the cycle and these points in time come along every once in a while where you don't need conservatism caution risk control discipline patience or selectivity you need money and the nerve to spend it and if you had money and nerve to spend it in in late 08 in the credit market or early 009 in the stock market you've made a ton of money and by playing that cycle