저자: ShankarNath · 외국인
요약 보기
GARP(성장+합리적 가격) 투자 프레임을 설명하며 스크리너 구성법을 소개. 매출·EPS 성장률(3년 평균 15%↑ 등), PEG 비율(1 미만 저평가, 2 미만 적용 등), 프로모터 지분 50%↑, 흑자·순이익 기준 등 조건으로 종목을 걸러내는 방식을 시연. 스크리너 결과는 아이디어 발굴용이며 개별 종목 매수 추천이 아니라고 강조. 종목 전망이나 가격 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Your investing style sir is that of Garp Growth at Reasonable Price. So you look at stocks which are showing growth but at the very same time given the mindset that you do not have to spend much on them, you have to buy them at a reasonable price. So sir what is the framework? How do you highlight from the entire universe of 5000 stocks that I have to read about these 20 stocks.
Here are 30 stocks to read about. You make some scanners, you make screeners on the basis of which you do this analysis. How does that work? So give me a quick background. This Gar was first invented around 196. But the person who made it very popular is Peter Licht. Oh, so in his books One Upon All the Things, you will find it in it.
So he is the one who popularized it. And he obviously made a lot of money from it too. Ah, so our variation is As You Rightly Said, there are only two things in it. One is looking at growth which is G and at reasonable price which is valuation. So we have to create a similar screener in which both these things are satisfied.
Correct? So let's start with growth. I am hoping you all are enjoying our channel. You all are watching our videos. But this data is telling us that you are watching videos on the channel but you are not subscribed. If you subscribe to this channel, I will make sure that we will keep making videos for you on whatever topics you are mentioning in the comment section.
So now let's get back to the video. What type of growth will happen now ? Growth can make everything grow. Sales earnings are what we primarily look at. Yes. So sales is their operating profit. There is net profit, there can also be profit before tax. End can also be EPS. Right? So this is the complete funnel that you call it.
My preference is not to look at only one thing. Okay but at least a couple of things okay so what we call top line bottom line so top line being sales and bottom line is profit EPS EPS EPS EPS so I hope everyone knows the amount of profits and EPS so if your share capital suddenly doubles and profit is same then it means your EPS gets halved and EPS is what shareholders like you and me actually get at the end of the day because if the number of shares increases then we do not even get to know that what exactly difference did it make to our earnings?
Exactly correct. So that's it. So let me go on to the screener. So the first thing is obviously sales. Now, how old do you want to see sales is also a matter of concern. So ideally what you want is increasing sales and at least not increasing but consistent sales and that sales number should be a little high.
How high should it be? At least 15%. Ok. All right. Why? How did you arrive at this number of? There is no reason behind it. But one of the things you can do which made me a little bit persuaded that I should take 15% is that in the concept of investing, they use 15% sales growth and loan book growth, although sometimes they use 10% also, but generally it is about 15%.
So I think that's a fundamentally decent number to have. So let's put this in here. So we are looking at a sales growth over. Now, here it is five years, but there is a problem in five years, that if I see the sales growth in five years, that was the beginning of Covid, right, then that jump is very high, right, so it is better to take in like a seven year, this thing for this particular period, right, that option is also there below, yes, so we want something that is more than 15, we want a sales growth of okay five years more than 15, now put five seven so that we get a consistent number, consistent number average.
Exactly correct. 3 years is 15 more than 50. Ok? Now there is a little upside down side. If I invest for one year then it will be 30% in one year. nobody. So this is where I stock. Correct. Ok. I don't go beyond the three year this thing. Got it. And another thing here Kunal is that I am not interested in finding a list of stocks to invest.
Correct. When we do the screener, see, its name is screener. Its name is not Picker. Correct it is not picker.com it is screener.com Correct. And sinerin right right. So screen you screen to get ideas right? You are not investing directly. You are not investing it. So that's my focus as well. Right?
So sales growth I take it at this. Right? The Same Thing I Want for Eps Also. Ok? Because EPS is something that is my right. As a shareholder. Right? So we will do the same thing here also. So another point is that as the sales are growing, the growth rate in earnings should also be the same. Meaning it is not necessary, meaning we need it to happen like this.
We need it. Correct because you must have seen many times where sales are increasing but profits are decreasing, which means there is no command in the business. Either it is not on the supplier side or it is not on the buyer side. I will not say command because it is also possible that to increase sales they took a lot of dept into the correct one.
So at that financial level increase the number of fixed assets. So what happened to him? Your depreciation is ruined. Correct. So you know that it is very dangerous in the middle. The most dangerous part is the middle part. From Ibeta to Pat Ibeta to PBT. Right, that's the most dangerous part. Because your interest came into it, depreciation came.
Obviously there is the operating profit part and there is something called an exceptional gain and loss also. Non-operational items. Because of that exceptional, your pet cannot move here and there. Right? So you got to kind of think to that also. So we take an EPS growth. Again let's do the same year this thing 75 and okay 15 let's run the query and see I think very few stocks will come I feel like more will come see yes sir what's your guess I think 20 no no should be more than that let's see 290 oh oh there there India has been arre humara desh bahut bada hai sir aisa investible market hai India mein music bhi hai yahan pe.
Or so obviously some of them would be very small. So let's knock off those guys. So that we can do it through market cap. Market cap. Ok correct. so how much? 500 Between 500 to 1000 crores I think yes. Still 160. Right? 60% still. Now this valuation gain. Correct. So now you have addressed the issue of Garb.
I addressed it from my side. Correct. Now when we look at valuation there are multiple ways of correct. There are your standard valuation metrics like PE, EVA , price to sales, price to book value. This is how you can do it. But what Peter Lynch did is that he invented a metric called the peg ratio.
Ok? The PEG ratio is again a very simple PE to growth ratio. That's what it means. Ok? In numerator you are taking complete PE. Exactly. The numerator is P and the denominator is the growth rate of the company. Ok? Now again the question P is simple right it's price divided by the earnings. So whatever is the current price divided by the EPS of the company.
Became a numerator. Ok? A. Denominator growth is a little tricky. Ok. Are you talking about growth? There can be sales growth , there can be earnings growth also. Old growth can also occur. There may also be upcoming growth. The coming growth may also be in sales. The coming growth may also be in earnings.
And how many years of growth is there? She is one year old, two years old, five years old. No one knows anything. Peter didn't tell us anything either. Ok. He also doesn't know anything. If you mean, even when I try to read on the internet, I don't get a concrete answer anywhere. Some article is saying take grow sales, some is saying take earnings.
So we will have to use common sense. Right? Ok? Now let me ask you in common sense, which growth are you interested in? Further. Not the future or the past. Correct. So I made it 100, but there is no interest in it. There is interest in doing 100 to 400. Correct. So you need the next one. Number one.
Which growth are you interested in? It is in sales growth, profit growth, EPS growth, EPS sir because that is available to me. Because EPS is your right. Right? Profit is not your right. The profit will be distributed among all the people. Stay in EPS and correct on the number of shares you have. So if you can get the future projected EPS growth good.
Correct. So your efforts should be on that. I said try because not every platform is able to provide this. In fact, this entire investing is based on how much this company will grow its profits and EPS. The Entire Investing Framework is based on that. Right? So this is obviously a tough question. You will say, okay, the screener will give it to you.
Let's see if the screener gives it or not. So let's go back and a peg ratio or there is a peg ratio obviously we want a peg ratio of more than zero. Okay obviously because negative P is not required. Exactly. And negative growth is not needed. Exactly. Ok. And we want a peg ratio of okay. So what did Peter Lynch say?
That if the pug ratio is equal to one then it is fairly valued. Okay, if it is less than one, it is undervalued. If it is more than one, this thing still I just want to take a small example also just to explain this concept. Understand that the PE of a stock is 80. Okay now you will say, hey man, this is very expensive.
If it is doubling every year, exactly, it is not the EPS growth rate which has the potential to double its next year. This thing then you are looking at 80 by 100. No, that is less than one, according to which it is also undervalued, so it is undervalued. Correct or so that is the concept basically right.
So here we take a PEG ratio of less than two may be for Indian markets because in Indian markets, we do not get cheap stocks. Those which have growth have high PE. Exactly, so let's run this query and then I will explain what is the problem. Okay, it now. Down to 143 is too much, right correct now, the peg that was used here is the same as that of PPSA people, yes, so what is this problem?
Platform to platform is a little different. Now what I think screener does is that P so it takes the correct which is the numerator. In the denominator, it is not taking the future EPS growth rate. I think what it is taking is the historical three-year profit growth. Okay, not even EPS, not even EPS.
Okay, this is what I mean. I have done it. I felt that this is what it is doing. So this is the problem. Right, so you have to use this particular peg ratio concept a little carefully. That's why I said no. It's more about you getting ideas rather than picking a stock on a particular basis. And you can also go into any other trend line.
There will be some other definition for them, right because the true definition has not been created. So that's there. So when you do it, you come to 143. Now, obviously, you could make a lot of tweaks to this peg ratio. If I make it 1.5, then obviously this will give me some small difference. Respite yes that's there the market cap I could increase I could increase sales there are more tweaks also.
So for example, there is something else in it. I prefer like to like. I prefer can I just increase this a bit so that it comes out full. Yes. Ok. A. Promoter Holding I I like companies in which promoter holding is slightly high. More than 50 More than 50 What I Like. Because his and my incentives are aligned.
In the game with The Game. Ok. So if I knock this in C I can get it down to ETS. Ok? So it starts decreasing a little more. Right? Another thing you can do is you can look at companies that are not making losses. Correct? And giving a certain level of profit at least. So for so may be I want companies where the net profit is more than may be 100 crores that will be too much.
Okay India do 100 because you have done 500 market cap or 49 49 okay. So so there you have it. But what happens is you still have a decent number of micro caps and small caps, right? I thought microcabs would disappear, but that hasn't happened. Right? So You Have Enough Companies. And this brought it down to a decent level.
Now You Got 50 Companies to Kind of Look At. You can do more. Like this industry button, click on it. Now whatever you don't like, I find it a little difficult to understand this finance management, so oh sorry I have to knock it off, right yes so I knock it off, I don't like this reality also because there is a lot of cyclicality there, right so I don't want to remove this, these construction dangerous banks have also come, remove one more bank, correct, so see I can or I think I will remove it, right then this makes sense, I will remove it, yes.
Okay so I have got a handful 33 and down to 33 right so now if you start looking at the companies you will see some very popular names right adani ports the biggest private port varun beverages does not require any kind of this thing lloyds has done well apaar industries one of the biggest multibaggers of the last 10 years that set garden reach doing very well you know thanks to ship building extra triveni turbine va big company captain point lapse i have this thing i i absolutely love the way the eps has grown for this company.
Look, I always talk about EPS. Because I love companies who do this. Right? Who has a good PE treasury? Look at the sometimes there is a doubt that how is such a linear thing growing by doing this. But this is the kind of company I absolutely love. You Know. So that's there. Ah transformers and re re re re re re re re rectifiers right?
Going Through Great Times. Jupiter Wagons. BLS International after BFS BLS is the second biggest I think international yes so your S is here all of yours is here so all the popular names right so the tips are here which we were talking about a while ago so all these guys are here so this is a great ideation spot if you look at the P ratio now okay the highest is 66 66 and the lowest is around 66 around this thing so on an average you can say it's around 35 around 35 40 friend that will come because they are giving growth of 202% so that much will come that you like everything is correct so friend there must be something which you like correct I think in this we have also left a pack of 1.5 if we increase that to 2 then it will increase a little more, the number of companies will increase okay so this is basically how you build up the idea and this tells you that you have to read these stocks okay and you have to track it So what do you generally do, do you read everything or do you have to, I generally read a lot.
OK got it. And Sir your quick three pointers on how you read the company in a very fast way. So now I have started using a lot of AI. That is there. So I take all the data and put it in Notebook LF. And then you know I am able to make this out. Number one. Number two, what I do is I first read the credit rating report of every company.
Ok? Because in summary, it tells you what are the levers of this company, what are its mistakes, what is good, what is a mistake, what is expected, so in just three pages you get to understand about this company, I think many people ignore it because it should not be ignored, it keeps coming on a regular basis, so people ignore it, there is no need to see all that A B A plus B plus, just read it, that's it and number three is like these screeners, this thing is, whatever notes they give along with the translation, I look at it very carefully, so all the three things, I am very sure sir, this will be very useful for the audience.
It will become clear to everyone how to select 20 stocks, 25 stocks, 30 companies from a universe of 5000 and how to study them. That is the motive of creating videos so that you do not have to read all these 5-6000 companies. Do n't get into tips. Do n't buy certain stocks based on tips. Because you will see that when you see these stocks appear on the screener.
There is not a single stock whose pitch is running in the market. You get them only from good fundamentally strong companies. So that is the beauty of creating good screens and platforms like Screenr. It helps us with this thing. So thank you so much sir for sharing your most favourite and your own strategy with us that is Garp Investing which works wonderfully and even we had created a video on this and people loved it in fact someone said that you have cloned Shankar Nath.
Hey what's up ok so it was a compliment for us and I am very sure that people will take a lot of insights from this video. Nice thank you so much for having
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