저자: AustinThompson · 외국인
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Tom Nash가 팔란티어 시총 1조달러·주가 500달러를 예측한 것에 반론. 현재 시총 약 320억달러, 2023년 매출 약 22억달러(PSR 약 16). 성장률 30%를 가정해도 9년 후 시총 2000~2500억달러 수준이 현실적이며, 지속적 주식 희석 때문에 1조달러/500달러는 매우 낮은 확률이라 주장. 보유 의견은 유지하며 장기 보유 예정.
다듬은 글
all right Tom Nash is a YouTuber here on the platform and he has about 300 000 subscribers somewhere around there but he talks about palantir all the time he loves palantir and he's been talking about the company for years and years and years so credit to him for sticking with the company and he's a massive shareholder from what I understand he has regularly predicted that palantir is going to hit a one trillion dollar valuation given the fact that we're at about 30 billion somewhere around there depending upon the time you're watching this video that would be more than a 30 x from here that's like a 3 000 game so if this does play out that's going to be absolutely life-changing money for anyone who owns palantir shares right now but let me be clear about this before we dive into this that is a huge claim to say that this company is going to hit a one trillion dollar valuation I don't know the exact time frame he puts on it I don't really watch his content all that much but I know he predicts that palantir is going to hit a one trillion dollar valuation so I want to give my take on this I want to say is Tom Nash right is Tom Nash wrong what's my opinion on it I'm going to talk about in this video but before we get into all that thanks for being here I'm Austin I'm a co-owner of cloudmusuite.com I'm a stock market investor and definitely most importantly for this video I'm A palantir shareholder at one point palantir was my number two position I believe now it's dropped down to about number three since we've seen a little bit of pain after that Q2 earnings report I first opened my position about two months after the company went public through their DPO and then I was a very very heavy buyer somewhere around the eight to six dollar range I was buying shares in a massive way I have fully built my position I might be a buyer at some point again in the future if we see any pain but for now I'm just a holder real quick the Channel's sitting around the 1900 subscriber Mark help us out on the road to 2000 if you're not one of those subscribers already hit that subscribe button and drop a like for me if you're back and you're already subscribed I appreciate you in a major way as a thanks for being subscribed here's a picture of my new dog we just got a puppy her name is Penny she's a sweet girl she's a standard poodle for those who are interested and she thanks you for subscribing okay let's get into this so palantir to a trillion dollars and what people are saying is that palantir stock price is going to hit 500 at the same time the market cap hits a trillion dollars I've got an interesting take on that as well but I'll talk about that here in just a little bit if you're looking for a deep dive of palantir's business model and the specifics of the business this is not the video I'm going to stay very numbers focused for this if you want those palantir breakdown videos on the business model and their products go ahead and check out other videos that are on my channel but this one is going to be very focused on the numbers so we know that palantir is now profitable they've had three quarters in a row of Gap profits as it relates to net income and as a result EPs and they've had two quarters in a row of income from operations being positive so they're certainly moving in the right direction the business fundamentals are getting better and better quarter in and quarter out the balance sheets in an amazing spot they've got it for three billion in assets and no debt on the books other than some short-term lease liabilities and deferred revenue and of course those long-term lease liabilities so right now palantir as I'm recording this video is sitting around a 32 billion dollar market cap so we'd have to have a third 30X by the way to get up to that one trillion dollar market cap range and the company is projected to have about 2.2 billion dollars of Revenue this year for fully year 2023.
and when we relate that market cap to the revenue that gives us a price to sales of about a 16 somewhere around there Price's sales of 16 is certainly not cheap but I've also seen way way way more disgusting price to sales especially with a company that has about an 80 gross margin like volunteer does so let's check out another company that has a way higher price to sales and I want to talk about why they're able to command that price to sales and that is NVIDIA so we all know about Nvidia and how they've had an insane run this year about a 5x on the share price you could have bought the shares for like 100 a share somewhere around there and now as I'm recording this video 485 dollars a share on Nvidia this is due to their revenue absolutely exploding higher they 2x their revenue just this year alone so the current year estimates are for over a hundred percent gain in the revenue category alone I personally have never seen in numbers like that from a company that's public in the market much less an absolutely massive company already that's commending that one trillion dollar market cap so this is unprecedented growth that palantir absolutely cannot match pretty much no public company can match so I'm not hating on palantir for that but nvidia's growth right now is absolutely ridiculous and that's why they're able to command this price to sales of a 37.
that is a massive price of sales but that's on a trailing basis on a forward basis it's going to be about half of that because their revenue is about to 2x over the course of 2023. so the forward price of sales really doesn't look all that terrible in Nvidia I'm not saying it's an attractive valuation but it's not as disgusting as like let's say this 37 right here so past that pretty much the only thing that palantir has over Nvidia as in fundamentally better than Nvidia is their gross margin numbers so gross profit margin for NVIDIA is about 70 percent and and the gross profit margin for palantir is just under 80 percent right now so assuming Nvidia can hold these Revenue rates strong they're probably going to be above 50 billion dollars for full year 2023.
that's over 20 times the revenue that palantir is about to have in full year 2023. so it makes sense that the stock is more than 30 times as valuable especially given those growth rates being more than 5x higher Alan to your growth rates right now are certainly a Hot Topic the company expected through 2025 to be able to have a smooth growth rate meaning a kegger of 30 percent seeing multiple quarters around 15 or lower on the revenue growth side and now the current year being projected at a 16 growth that means we're going to have to see an insane re-acceleration of growth in 2024 and in 2025 in order to see that 30 keger that the management team had guided for multiple quarters in a row and Wall Street in general is not really believing that 30 percent kagers story and one of those reasons is because the management team has kind of dropped off from talking about that I haven't heard Alex karp talk about that 30 growth rate in quite a while now I heard one question about it and he pretty much said my legal team will shoot me if I answer questions about that but palantir is not going to command the valuation that Nvidia is commanding with their 100 plus percent growth it's really hard to compare Nvidia to palantir a lot of people like to do it because that's the most recent company to hit that one trillion dollar evaluation but I think there's a better company to compare to and that company is Salesforce does Salesforce have the exact same products no does Salesforce have the exact same gross margins no but they are a software company and Salesforce grows margins are around 74 palantir gross margins are around 80 percent so a little bit of a premium valuation as you relate palantir to Salesforce makes sense to me and as of right now palantir's growth rates are higher than Salesforce growth rates Salesforce is expected to grow 11 for full year 2023 and then 10 for full year 2024 that's a very respectable growth rate number especially in these higher rate environment times with the FED putting pressure on spending trying to cool down the economy a little bit but that still gets beat by quite a bit by palantir's growth rates on the revenue side of 16 and 18 respectively for 2023 and 2024.
but since Salesforce has those lower gross margins and lower growth rates Salesforce is very much more realistically priced on a price to sales ratio of 6.63 right now as of recording this video that's almost a third of palantir's prices sales right now but assuming their growth rates re-accelerate and get closer to that 30 Mark or even go past that 30 Mark palantir will continue commanding a premium valuation over Salesforce so if palantir continues to command at least a 50 percent higher price to sales ratio than Salesforce and they just 10x their revenue to 22 billion when I say just 10x their revenue that is a large state statement it is not easy for a company to 10x their revenue over any period of time much less the amount of years that I'm about to tell you right now so if palantir is able to get to that smooth growth rate that compounded annual growth rate of around 30 let's go a little bit under and say 29 it would still take nine years for palantir to hit 22 billion dollars of Revenue and if they're going to keep commanding that premium valuation over Salesforce I could see them being somewhere between 200 billion and 250 billion dollars of market cap but that's nine years out and here's the unfortunate thing about palantir and most software companies even if palantir goes from 2.2 billion dollars up to 22 billion dollars of Revenue and their price to sales ratio drops a little bit like I said earlier a 15 price of sales is not very sustainable so I would bet will be somewhere around that 12 price of sales which would put us in that 250 billion dollar market cap range ish but palantir is known to be a series real share diluter they issue more shares very regularly every single quarter they're diluting shareholder Equity what happens with this since stock price is determined by market cap divided by shares outstanding if we increase the Shiro's outstanding because we're issuing more shares that effectively brings the stock price down so even if the revenue is 10x and even if the market cap 10x is as a result or somewhere around there because the crisis sales ratio stays pretty elevated somewhere between 11 12 maybe 13.
by the way that's still a very high price of sales ratio that would be about a eight or nine X of the market cap but if palantir keeps on issuing shares in a massive way like they have been yes the stock based competition has dropped a lot but I would bet they're still going to issue more and more shares as the quarters go on it's going to decrease but it doesn't mean they're not issuing more shares they're still diluting shareholder Equity so if the market cap 8X is you and I might only get a 7x or a 6X or if it gets really bad maybe a 5x that's still life-changing very a very very good return on a stock over a nine year period but it's nowhere near that 30X that Tom Nash is predicting with the one trillion dollar market cap or with the 500 share price I think the 500 share price is less likely than the one trillion dollar market cap but I think both of them are very very unlikely within the foreseeable future like I said if they get back to those growth rates of 29 plus percent which they're way off from right now then I think nine years we could be somewhere in the 200 billion dollar market cap range so my final answer on whether or not Tom Nash is right on palantir maybe I don't know what his time Horizon is on palantir hitting one trillion dollars but if he's talking about two decades I can definitely see it happening if he's talking about one decade if he's talking about five years three years some kind of short-term prediction like that I think the chances of that happening are extremely extremely low does that mean you should sell palantir stock right now no a 5x a 6 x8x10x 15x on your money if you think his predictions are double too high if you think his predictions are 4X too high Etc you can still make crazy money on this stock if you hold for the long term and you see those growth rates getting back to that 30 percent palantir is probably going to be a great returner over time I definitely don't see it hitting a market cap of one trillion dollars this decade and I think it's even less likely that it hits 500 per share inside of this decade because of that shared dilution I was talking about I more so see somewhere around a 250 billion dollar market cap with a price to sale somewhere around 11 to 12 which would mean the revenue is going to have to be about 20 billion to 22 billion dollars over the next nine years which would mean a growth rate pretty dang close to 30 percent on a compounded annual basis which is that smooth growth rate some years might be way lower than 30 some years might be way higher than 30 percent for palantir to hit these levels we have to have some years that are substantially higher than 30 percent based on what we've seen over the last few quarters so much love out there at Tom Nash but I don't see this company hitting one trillion dollar valuation anytime soon if he's talking about two decades from now I can see a possibility for it if he's talking about this decade I think it's very very unlikely that we see that happen but like I said you can still make life changing money in palantir stock if you believe in the company if you think these growth rates are going to get back to where they are if you think it's going to keep on commanding that premium valuation over its peers so that's my take on it I will still be holding palantir shares for a very long time at least one decade I'm going to be holding these palantir shares so I can't wait to see how the story plays out but I just want to damper some people's expectations a little bit disagree with this popular YouTuber Tom Nash and say I don't think it's going to hit a one trillion valuation but that doesn't mean I don't want to own the stock I still want to own the stock I just don't think it's going to be a 30X anytime soon that's all I got for you in this video let me know what you're doing with palantir shares tell me if you agree with Tom Nash or if you agree with my projections or if think it's way lower way higher similar in between I want to hear your take on it I appreciate you being here in a big way thank you for subscribing have a great day
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