원문 보기
but again just to be clear so you think that if you're a walmart you can pass on these you know costs going up to your consumer without a bite back when inflation is already up and everything else they buy look if you're walmart you just saw targets numbers yesterday and you're going yes i'm going to be in a position to put cost prices through increases through because both these firms have to i mean the bottom line is they're not in position to absorb the entire supply chain stock or shock themselves they're going to be putting price increases through and and the consumer can take that the consumer let's be clear take it i'm sure what that means for for for a family that's in the lower quartile of income this is a really tough situation okay they're going to have to make some pretty painful decisions in terms of consumption trade-offs i mean this is why productivity growth is so important this is why the right policies out of washington are so important because inflation really impacts people who are living paycheck to paycheck most aggressively so in the next quarter i mean are we looking at stagflation and again what does that do to the s p 500 when do we hit bottom well i i don't think we're we're not stagflation yet okay okay yes gdp growth in q1 was a disappointment but we're going to see positive growth over the next couple of quarters i mean let's take a huge step back unemployment is 3.6 percent there are 11 million open jobs we are i mean these are numbers that look nothing like gloom and doom but so what are we living through we are living through a shortage of workers and we are living through a change in the policies of globalization that defined most of our adult lives so with the workforce we're the american workers we still have fewer people employed today than we did before the pandemic started we should have several million more americans working and we need those people working because that's how we satisfy the demands of the american consumer and then for our entire adult lives we've lived by and large and this is this is an uneven set of benefits but we've lived through the benefits of globalization which has been incredibly impactful in reducing the cost of goods now we know some of the impacts this has had on on towns with single manufacturing businesses that have been shut down and and destroyed by by offshoring but as we roll back globalization as we go to more insourcing we're going to see that that huge benefit of trade dissipate which has been so helpful in containing inflation rates but so that's going to be inflationary that's inflationary and what does that mean for the market so again you've got these two inflationary problems you've got a shortage of people in the workforce you've got this impact of deglobalization that causes this inflationary environment that we're in that's going to cause the fed to have to raise rates and at some point we're going to go from a negative real rate environment to a positive real rate environment and the stock market is seeing that play out they're forecasting that and they're incorporating that into stock prices so stock prices go lower growth stocks go much lower value stocks outperform growth how much slower for a correction do we need to see before we hit bottom how do you see that actually how do you tell it's bottom you don't know i mean like look if somebody here has the bottom indicator just my phone number i i love to know that and everybody in this room would love to know that and everybody who sits in front of a bloomberg terminal you have the crystal ball ken do not i don't have the crystal ball at all like mine is just dark when i look into it i can't see anything do you do you have a fun that's actually just not short no we do not have a fun that would be in any meaningful way that short why not over time we bet on the growth the american economy what does this all mean for active investment it should have been back so active investment is i mean drives drives our equity markets drives it and in fact this is one of the real apprehensions that i have with a number of the sec's most recent policy proposals is they are reducing the ability of active managers to deploy capital and to earn the benefits of their research and the great savings of american retail investors by having access to index funds is predicated on markets that are efficient markets are efficient because of active investors so ironically you know one of the great sea changes in our lifetime has been the rise of passive investing it's saved it has saved american households countless tens of billions or hundreds of billions of dollars i mean the numbers are are staggering numbers and the sec in their effort to make active investing less attractive i mean it's like the policies for the equity market that parallel our energy policies of the last two years we've got higher prices gasoline at the pump because of poor decisions out of washington and we're about to make our markets less efficient if the sec's agenda is pursued so how would you change the equity market the u.s equity market is is unquestionably the envy of the world it is the single most efficient competitive market in the world hands down now this doesn't mean there's there's not rooms room for improvement i mean to be clear it's like it's in a variety of technical details that isn't that interesting we published plenty of white papers and comment letters on this i think i'd put the audience to sleep in about three to four minutes not if you do it in 20 seconds yeah but i can't i can't do it in 20 seconds because it's just not that interesting and it's all highly technical so to be clear there's room to improve the u.s stock market but the most important thing we can do for the o stock market is to ensure that we have a very vibrant and community of active investors that engage in research price discovery and commit their capital against what they're doing that's the most important thing we can do to make our equity market really serve the needs of corporate america and the american public the other thing we need to do is we need to think about how do we make the american equity market attractive to corporations to be a part of the rise of private equity is really a testament to the difficulties and challenges of being a public company we should think about how do we have far more companies be public companies where their success is enjoyed by american investors saving for the retirement or otherwise and everything that we keep piling onto the list of obligations and responsibilities for a public company discourages that from happening we've seen thousands of fewer companies in our public markets today than 25 years ago and that's really i i hate to say but but shame on washington for for really forcing so many investment opportunities outside of the line of sight of the american investing public so ken you don't think this comes from a place of actually trying to to keep more people safe when it comes to public money wow so if we're going to try to force everybody into t-bills that hasn't worked so well the american investor in t bills over the course last two years has lost about ballpark 15 percent of their real savings so i'd call that a really big policy failure if we think safety is everybody in american public has to invest their money in t bills i want to talk about liquidity is there going to be a liquidity problem in the markets and is that one of the biggest concerns that that markets are actually not talking about you know i think that that people use the word liquidity in a very like loose way loose weight okay and there's there's various forms of liquidity that matter to markets in various ways the biggest challenge we have this year in the market with respect to liquidity is the very low rate of new capital formation so we're seeing a real dearth of new equity car market deals ipos and that's that's problematic because that's the lifeline of the entire venture capital system which has been so important to the american growth and productivity story so fewer ipos fewer ability to to exit investments for vc firms leaves us short capital to invest in the startups of tomorrow but why is that covid there's a there's a litany of reasons and part of it is people are are dealing number one with their losses in their growth stock portfolio number two is chaotic market environments become all-consuming with respect to your current portfolio and you just don't have time to look at new ideas i mean on a day like yesterday if somebody calls and says hey we've got this great ipo you're sitting there going like i've got enough problems on my plate to not talk about a new investment opportunity how often do those come up actually how often do you make a decision on a new investment opportunity how often do i yeah rarely the people that work for me are much better at most these decisions than i would ever be but how many proposals you get i mean like proposals it's like an endless number but decisions is very few how has covert change the way you work and how hedge funds work you know that that is that is very mixed across the industry one of the the big changes for us was the lack of access to corporate management teams we are so intertwined with corporate america in trying to understand business models the value proposition for consumers how they're going to take the business forward in terms of new r d and new projects losing that connectivity to corporate america when we went to a world of zoom-based calls that became very anodyne that was a big loss and that was a loss for efficiency in markets so the last the last few months have been a wonderful sea change that we've had so much more connectivity back to the companies that we that we support and back in understanding how they're going to evolve their businesses you know for us the the world post cove it looks very much like the world pre-code we're all back at work around the world that citadel absent a few jurisdictions in asia and that collaboration within our four walls i think has been an incredibly important part of our success story over the last two and a half years it's something that i i wish all corporate america would embrace because what you see and there are there are more and more studies emerging on this innovation and creativity fall in a remote remote workforce and for us so much of how we create value in one form or another involves creativity innovation and having everybody back together has been really powerful in driving forward our our overall business and it hasn't hurt keeping talent or hiring you know what we lost a handful of people over the course of this journey you know let's be clear the first two or three weeks back for most people was like i can't believe they made me come back to work and then in december when we saw omnicron we accelerate we told everybody on these 14th go home for the holidays like this wave was going to sweep across the united states we had an outstanding year everyone had given it 110 and most people kept coming to work so what it's really a statement about is we're creatures of habit and we create new habits pretty quickly and when your habits turn back into i go to work you start to say things like i actually enjoy the separation of my personal life my professional life i mean i can't tell you how my my colleagues are like you know it's actually really nice to be in a room and not have to deal with like managing 25 different distractions at home so i think most importantly we're creatures a habit whatever those habits may turn out to be but for us the chance to collaborate the chance to work together the chance like there's been so many meetings over the last last two and a half years in front of white boards with new insights new new concepts that would never happen in a zoom-based world citadel has made money when a lot of people haven't what's your secret sauce look i think i just spoke about the most important one it's the fact that we work together as a team everybody says huh but so what's your real secret sauce no i i i have i mean it's really simple many of the best people in the world of finance work at citadel and they work together at citadel they work together in citadel in a very powerful way both from a research perspective from understanding with their competitive comparative advantages from being disciplined we talked about decision making we're very good at pushing decision making through the organization i have a very simple principle the most junior person who is qualified to make the decision should make it
Comments 0