저자: Mr.FIREDUpWealth · 외국인
요약 보기
장기 투자 방법론(블루프린트, 분할매수)을 설명하고, 엔비디아는 $1,000 돌파 가능성을 언급하며 조정 후 매수 관심. 테슬라는 $150 하회 가능성과 S3 $136 언급, 쇼피파이는 $65 이하 분할매수 선호, 넷플릭스는 $525 부근 매수 관심. 잭스케일러는 $175 이하 분할매수 언급. 실적 호조에도 과열 우려로 신규 추격매수는 경계.
다듬은 글
You want to know what's going on with the stock market? Should you be buying stocks now? You also have questions, just high-level questions about the market, about how to invest. I'm going to answer those questions today. We'll also look quick at Netflix earnings in a chart. We'll look at Nvidia chart.
We'll look at Shopify, Tesla, and we'll talk through other names like Zscaler. All right, I hope you're comfortable. Grab yourself a refreshment, a snack. I'm going to go through some of these questions that I think this is going to be helpful, be something different. First question, at what price do you stop DCA'ing, dollar cost averaging, into a stock?
How do you determine that self-imposed cut-off point? This is where a lot of new investors get confused right out of the gates because they don't have a plan and they don't have a blueprint. The answer to that question, if you're a long-term investor and you're following the Fire Up Wealth methodology, you're using a blueprint, you're going to stop dollar cost averaging once you've baked out that position in the portfolio.
In other words, let's just say you want Microsoft to be 5% of your portfolio. Once it's 5% of your portfolio, you would stop dollar cost averaging. Now, there are two ways to dollar cost average. One's going to be periodic dollar cost averaging, basically investing every paycheck, every week, every month, or you can use the approach of technicals and buy lots.
For example, you might buy 1/4 of position. Say you want $10,000 in a stock, you might buy $2,500 at a specific technical level, and you might wait for other technical levels, especially if the stock is going down. Now, some people are going to say, "Well, that's catching a falling knife. Wait for upward momentum." This is where it can be tricky.
There are a lot of ways to do it, and it's going to depend really if you're a long-term investor or if you're a trader. If you're a trader, a lot of what I teach probably won't apply to you because you're going to be trading momentum and you're going to wait for that stock to turn around, have momentum upwards before you pile in.
This is also what gets new investors in trouble because they end up piling in too late, and they buy off of FOMO, fear of missing out. I generally like to buy stocks when they're going down, not when they're going up, against the grain. And I really haven't bought much of anything for about 6 months.
So, the last several days, I've been adding pretty heavily into both portfolios. All right, next question. This is from Frank Shearer. What system do you use to organize stocks to decide what is a good candidate to trim? In the past, any of my DGI, so dividend growth investing, or DGIF stocks, that's dividend growth investing for FIRE, or just total growth stocks, that ripped too high, were easy to see that they were overvalued.
Now, a lot of growth names are near all-time highs and not sure how to organize them to try to trim some profits. This is a great piggyback question to the first question because it deals again with your blueprint. Let's say for example again, you wanted 5% of your portfolio to be Microsoft, but you bought Microsoft a year and a half ago and you're up nicely on it.
And now Microsoft also to say is 7% of your portfolio. You're going to have to make that decision. Do you want to keep that at 7% even though your original blueprint was 5%? Or do you want to trim it back to 7%? Now, there isn't really a wrong answer here, and Microsoft might not be a great example cuz it could be considered a core position.
So, let's use the example of something like ACLS, where we bought it in Discord in 2021, started buying it at $28. The stock went up to over $200 a share. When it got elevated those prices, I trimmed that original cost basis and some profits, and I kept a couple hundred shares as what we call house shares.
That just means essentially those are free shares. You've already made back your initial investment, maybe even some profits on top of that, and you're holding those other shares long term. Now, that played out nicely cuz the stock today is now under $100 a share. And sure, it's still up nicely if you bought it at $28, $30 a share, but it's come down over 50% from its all-time highs.
So, a lot of times we say when a stock goes parabolic, in other words, it goes up maybe 300% in a couple years, something like that. Especially if the fundamentals don't support it, that oftentimes is a great candidate to trim in your portfolio. Now, Frank here is talking about DGI and DGIF stocks. Now, I think it really goes back to that blueprint again because as long as you're not overweight and you're still in line with your blueprint, it's not necessarily a bad thing if they went up.
If you're doing dividend reinvestment or drip, well, you got to look at your yield on cost. And recently I posted in Discord in that top channel, Eric's portfolio channel, stock like Microsoft as an example, my yield on cost is around 10%. That means for my original cost basis, I bought that stock in 2012, I'm getting a 10% yield off that original cost.
Other stocks like Home Depot, I'm getting 11.68% yield on cost. So, obviously you still need to have conviction on the stock. You have to make sure it's not overweight to your blueprint in your portfolio. And if you do have conviction and it's not overweight, you might just continue to hold it. This next question is from Bearded Angel, wants an update on my thoughts on Zscaler and around the price that I would find it attractive.
Well, obviously I like the stock a lot better when it was below $100, not that long ago, less than a year ago, but the stock ripped up to $260 and we do chart day every single Wednesday, Patreon Discord. If this type of thing is interesting to you, we look at QQQ and 20 individual stock tickers every Wednesday at 9:00 a.m.
Eastern. Just this Wednesday, so yesterday, we said right here in orange is this previous chart days, this was yellow yesterday when we did chart day same, we said $175 possible and that's where I would DCA, $175 or less. Of course, it can go lower, the S3 is $166.49 or $48 and the stock will have earnings the end of May and earnings could make a stock like this, you know, pop 20% or drop 20%.
I do like this company, I think it's a best of breed when you think of cybersecurity. I call it one of those tier one growth plays. So, it's a high quality name. And of course, I'd rather see you buy it at $174 versus $259. This is again where it gets really tricky because if you're a long-term investor, you have to be able to ride out these waves.
There's going to be waves of ups ups and downs and you have to have conviction in the company long-term, understand what you're owning, and really think of when you own shares, you own part of a business, right? If you're a trader, it's a completely different game. And you might want to look at momentum going upward before you jump in the name.
Right now, the stock is below the moving averages, the 50, the 100, and the 200-day. The only thing left is that S3, that Fibonacci S3. And again, that's a at $166 and change. This next question, if you were starting to invest today, what overall strategy would you consider? Also, are there any particular stocks that you think would be interesting to include in a starting portfolio?
This is a great question, exactly the type of question I'm looking for for this video. you're a new investor, it's overwhelming. There's information all over the place, all over social media, all over TV, and it's really hard to know what to believe and that noise can really scare you either direction.
That FOMO, fear of missing out, and full, fear of losing everything. When the market's bullish, everybody's telling you just to buy, buy, buy at any price. Of course, when the market starts selling off, it's always the fear of losing everything. It's just all going to go to zero, it's going to go lower, don't buy, wait for it to go lower.
One thing that's going to be very helpful is going to be the foundational knowledge that's going to really be necessary for you to be successful investor. Financial literacy, understanding the basics. And the basics include lots of different things including psychology and discipline. And psychology can really be the most important part of a long-term investor.
It really can be most important part for a trader as well. I spent hundreds of hours and I started this in 2020. We have over 20 videos, a masterclass video series that teaches you everything investing A to Z, and it includes how to build a blueprint. That blueprint is there to help you with your plan.
So, your plan is what do you want out of investing? What are you trying to accomplish by investing in the stock market? What do you want out of your life? The blueprint is going to be the way to make that plan come to fruition. So, if I'm just starting today, I would consider using the Fire Up Wealth methodology and that blueprint.
That, of course, is going to include that foundational knowledge. But, the blueprint is going to have things like ETFs to build up a core. It's going to have core growth stocks. It's going to have hypergrowth stocks. It's going to have dividend stocks. It's going to have SPAC stocks. It's going to teach you how to dollar cost average, how to manage your cash, and more.
If I would have known the things that we teach in those videos 20 years ago, I would have a lot more money today. And the stock market has made me a millionaire from long-term investing. But, seriously, if I knew then, 20 years ago, what I know now, I would have tens of billions of dollars cuz I made mistakes along the way as well, and you will, too.
So, if I were just starting out, I would focus on two things. I would focus on learning as much as possible, and I would dollar cost average into ETFs while I learn. I have a video on the channel that covers the seven best growth ETFs to buy. You can start out with something simple like the S&P 500, but that video, go check it out.
There are plenty of other ETFs that you can explore. My portfolios, I like to have that core ETF foundation, and I like to include dividend stocks. Compounding is the eighth wonder of the world. So, a lot of people when they start out, they just say, "Okay, everything's expensive. I like Microsoft. I like the magnificent seven.
But, you know, I'd I'd rather chase these penny stocks that seem like they're really beaten down. You know, this was $12, now it's $4. I'm just going to buy two or three penny stocks, and that's going to be my portfolio." That'll get you into trouble, and it's going to fail more times than not. So, really having a strategy and a blueprint is what you need to be successful as a long-term investor.
If you don't have a blueprint, you needs to build one before you can really go any further. Just buying a handful of growth stocks in a account in a Robinhood account, it's not a portfolio. If you want to check out our private community, we started this community all the way back in 2020, July of 2020.
We've got a Discord. I also do live streams every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. Now, there's a free one-week trial to Elite. You can go sign up right now, patreon.com/firedupwealth. But, if you are a new investor, I encourage you to check out the Masterclass tier. That's going to be the next tier after the Elite tier.
Next question, what are some of the best market indicators to use to analyze when the market or sector is down as a whole that it might be a buying opportunity? This is also something that we teach in the private community. So, every single Wednesday, we do chart day. We go through QQQ and 20 individual stock tickers.
In the Masterclass series, there are two videos that cover technical analysis. Now, generally speaking, when I buy, I try to buy individual stocks for the most part in my primary portfolio. That portfolio is around $1.8 million. It was over $1.9 at one point this year. Obviously, it's pulled back with the recent sell-off.
But, I'll analyze a company and I'll spend, let's just say, more time than I even care to admit. And I'll decide what I think the value of that stock is or what I would pay for that stock. And each of those stocks has to fit into my blueprint, into my DNA. It's something that I want to own for many years.
Generally, when I buy, it's for 5 years or more. Most of the time, I look at 2030 or beyond. So, if you're looking at the overall indexes or even individual stocks, you're going to look at things like the moving averages, also trend lines. You're going to look at RSIs. You're going to look at MACDs.
You're going to look at Fibonacci retracement. You're going to look at Fibonacci pivot points. So, that goes, you know, S3, support three, all the way up to R3, resistance three. And that's generally how I buy stocks. I usually wait for stocks to come back to those 200-day moving averages, to come back to trend lines.
And I won't chase stocks when they're way elevated over those indicators. Now, this next question will get me fired up really fast. He asks, "What are your favorite forever stocks and ETFs?" Now, ETFs, that's one thing. If you want to invest in the S&P 500, like the VOO, that's something I think you can probably buy and hold forever.
When it comes to individual stocks, there's really no such thing. And you see those headlines, "Best stocks to buy now and hold forever." Two things that I would do right when I see that. One, when you're reading that article or watching that video, not only do you take a grain of salt, take that entire Morton bottle and dump it on your head.
Number two, whoever wrote that, in my opinion, this is just my two cents, real talk here, that person loses a ton of credibility in my eyes. To teach somebody to buy something and hold forever, it's a very dangerous proposition. Now, of course, you can always point to the well, if you would have bought Amazon when it first came public and held it forever to this point, you would have made a ton of money.
Sure, there are going to be stories like that. But the message here is you just don't buy and hold forever blindly. You buy, you hold, and you monitor. If that story changes, often times you got to sell the stock. And if you look at the S&P 500, how many companies have gone out of business, have been replaced in that index, the list is very long.
You could have thought Enron was a buy and hold forever back in the 1990s. You could have went overweight and put half your money in your portfolio in Enron, and you would have lost your rear end. So, major index ETFs, or maybe a Vanguard ETF, something that's a high-quality ETF, sure, you can buy and hold those with the intent of holding those forever.
When it comes to individual stocks, I really do not like that terminology. All right, here's a good one. Could you run through technical levels of some of your favorite large-cap stocks? I got you. First up, let's look at Nvidia. This is a the we've talked about since 2019 when we first started the channel, one of the highest conviction stocks I've ever owned.
This stock I said in 2022 in March after the GTC conference, I said this is a must own stock for any portfolio. And you know what the stock has done since 2022. Now Nvidia stock got up to almost $1,000, 974. And we said it would probably have some consolidation at some point. It's going to have to slow down.
It did pull back here to the 50-day moving average. So this yesterday on Shard Day, we covered this, said same as last video. If you haven't seen that video a couple weeks ago, I did a Nvidia video. It brings you up to speed. Also shares the highlights from the most recent GTC conference. Said it's consolidating.
I still believe this stock will break $1,000. It might need earnings for it to do that. Course of the whole market sells off, well, stocks like Nvidia are going to sell off, too. They're part of the indexes and so on. So I've been long in this stock since 2017 in the 30s. If I were looking to buy it now, it's really tough.
You probably have to dollar cost average and know there's significant risk to the downside if something goes wrong. But I do believe that Nvidia will consolidate and break that $1,000 mark with time. Of course, earnings have to deliver. Now I've covered Tesla several times recently and told you that there's a chance it breaks $150, especially with earnings here on April 23rd.
It's now under $150. This stock is down 40% year-to-date. Over the past year, it's down 16.98%. But over the past 5 years, Tesla is still up over 850%. Now looking at a chart here, it did break the S2. The S3 is down here to $136. I think that's a possibility. There's a firm called GLJ Research, long-time bear of Tesla.
They came out a couple days ago with a street low. Their target price for Tesla, $23 a share. So of course, as you know, Tesla has its fair share of bulls and bears. It's going through a rough patch right now. The stock could certainly go lower. I think if you're accumulating shares at these prices and you're thinking 5 years out that you'll probably be happy, but it comes down to your conviction and understanding of the company.
Is it a car company? Is it a tech company? Another person in the comments asked me about Shopify if I thought Shopify was a good long-term holding, something to buy now. You can see Shopify is finding buyers off this 200-day moving average. It's around $68 a share right now. In fact, post market it's $69.40.
I do think it's attractive if it especially if it breaks lower than this. This S3 is around $66. So, you know, anything lower the better, obviously, but if you can get it 65 or less DCA, that's probably preferable. And I remember covering this not long ago on chart day, you know, it was $80, $90, and I said, "Hey, I won't be surprised if this comes back in the 60s." And here we are.
Netflix, this came out with earnings. Here are the results. Earnings per share 5.28 versus 4.52. So, a strong beat there. Revenue 9.37 billion. That's a beat. Expectation was 9.28 billion. Now, looking at Netflix, this is running hot like a lot of stocks are. This was $169, $162 back May of 2022. So, less than 2 years ago this was $162 a share.
This thing got all the way up here to $635. You can see it pulled back to about the 50-day, and it is down after hours after this earnings report. Post market 593.25. For me personally, I wouldn't buy this stock unless it came closer, probably between the 200-day moving average, you know, something like $525.
I'm not saying that's going to happen. I'm just saying that's probably where I would eye it if I were going to add it to my portfolio. If this video was .
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