Howard Marks: The Problem With Gold That Nobody Can Answer

요약 보기

현금(T-bill)은 무위험이지만 최저 수익률이라 장기 투자자에게 불리하다. 금·비트코인 같은 비현금흐름 자산은 현금흐름 자산과 달리 적정가치를 산정할 수 없으며, 가격은 사람들이 부여하는 가치에만 의존한다. 2007년 유가 147달러가 몇 개월 뒤 40달러 안팎으로 폭락한 사례를 들어 이를 설명하고, 금과 비트코인도 같은 논리가 적용된다고 주장한다. 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없다.

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01. There are two kinds of assets in the world. There are assets that produce cash flow and assets that don't. The assets that produce cash flow are things like for students that are looking at risk in the market, cash often feels safe. Is that again? I'm sorry. For students uh looking at the market, cash often feels safe.

02. Is that something that you are a fan of or Well, cash is cash is safe unarguably. The only thing that the risk that cash exposes you to is the risk of not making money. If you look at the chart that Jeff put up on the board, cash is zero risk. Guess what? If you take zero risk, you get the lowest possible return.

03. So, by the way, nobody holds cash. Nobody walks around with money in their pocket. When we say in our business when we say cash, we meant T- billills. So you buy 30-day US T bills, which are you have no credit risk. I believe you have no interest rate risk because interest rates can't go up and and the value go down because the period to maturity is so short.

04. You have no purchasing power risk because there can't be much inflation over the next 30 days. And so it's absolutely riskless and it has the lowest possible rate and we call it the risk-free rate and it's today it's uh threeish, right? So that's the trouble with cash. And by the way, if you take a job as an investor and you put the money in cash, I promise you'll get fired.

05. Uh you know, so I I'm not a big advocate of cash. What are your thoughts on goldbitcoin crypto? Okay. Well, that's a great question. uh gold bitcoin. So I wrote a memo, hey uh back in 2010 and the title was all that glitter. And I tried to put in everything I knew about gold. And and I said there are two kinds of assets in the world.

06. There are assets that produce cash flow and assets that don't. The assets that produce cash flow are things like stocks, bonds, companies, and buildings. If you buy one of those, it gives you cash. hopefully every year or month and you can value it. So, I have a building. It throws off a million dollars a year in profit.

07. I want to sell it to Jeff. Jeff is open to buying a building and he says, "I'll give you $8 million for it because at $8 million I get a 12% return." 1 over 8 is 12%. I say, "Jeff, that's not high enough. you have to give me 12 million because it's such a high quality asset that an 8% return 1 over 12 is sufficient and in fact because it's so welllo the income will probably go up and you'll get a return more than eight.

08. We can value an asset that produces cash flow by having this kind of discussion. But if you have an asset that doesn't produce cash flow, you can't have a discussion. What are some examples? diamonds, paintings, furs, oil, gold, Bitcoin. They they they don't produce any cash. So, you can't say what the right price for a barrel of oil is or a bar of gold.

09. And I remember that in July of 07, oil was selling at $147 a barrel. And if you said to me said to people at at some brokerage firm, well, why is oil at 147? They would say, well, uh, it's a finite supply. We're using it up, and much of the supply is in the hands of countries that are, uh, adverse to the United States, so it's very valuable.

10. Six months later, oil was selling at uh, I think 35 or maybe 47, something like that. if you said well but all the and all those things were still true. So you take the fact that this finite supply is finite and the fact that we may not make anymore and the fact that we're using it up and the fact that it's in hostile hands but how do you turn those qualitative elements into a fair price and the answer is there is no way.

11. And that is true of gold and that is true of Bitcoin. So if I say to you Jeff because Jeff's a fan of gold why do you like gold? He would say it's a store of value and in tough times in inflation or panic uh gold holds its value. Why does it hold its value? It's a price the market. Well, it always has.

12. Why has it? There's no linkage. There's no mechanism. There's nothing that makes gold a store of value other than the fact that people treat it as a store of value. And that leads us to Bitcoin. The value of Bitcoin has no value other than the the value that people accorded. Thanks for watching. Subscribe for weekly timeless investing and finance insights and watch the next video for more lessons from great investors. Take care.