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First, the new IPO that fails the Jim Kramer test. Then, Saks Fifth Avenue files for bankruptcy like a crocodile eating a hippo. And finally, Grinder is building a super gay app. Their words, Jack, let's hit it. This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Thursday, the new Friday, January 15th, and today's pod is the best one yet.
This is a tea boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Wow, stocks actually fell yesterday. Feels like the first time all year. I didn't know they did that in 2026. It's like investors opened their eyes and realized there's a lot of chaos happening in the world. Let's get to the news.
For our first story, it's equipment share. It's not just the Airbnb of excavators. This is much more than that and it's IPOing next week. The business looks incredible, but Jim Kramer would not approve of this stock. We'll explain why. But first, Yetis. Uh, a little bit of awkward constructive feedback for the American construction industry.
We got to share. You're not productive enough. And here's the hero stat. Since 1947, productivity in American construction has risen pathetically slowly. Farmers are producing 10 times more crops per person than 1947. Manufacturers are producing 3.5 times more per person, but construction workers are building just 1.6 six times more per person than 78 years ago.
An even more ridiculous comparison here, the tech industry, right, Jack? I mean, computers are trillions times faster than 1947. But construction is just 1.6 times better despite all the advancements in technology. Not convinced? How about this? Construction productivity is actually down since 1973.
Each worker appears to be building less. And this just rings true to me. Everything these days takes forever to build and always goes over budget. Okay, Jack, but pause the pod for a sec. Don't blame the construction workers. You got huge safety precautions and red tape that mean it takes 8 months to build a bakery out there.
Still, we're talking about an 11 trillion global construction industry. Huge. Construction is 10% of the world's GDP. And yet, it's been stagnant for decades. That's all according to the S1 IPO paperwork of Equipment Share. That's right, Yetis. Jack and I threw on the those green visors, you know, that accountants used to wear back in the day.
Oh. Oh, no, no, Jack. I was thinking the cargo pants for this one. And Equipment Share is the company that filed to IPO on Tuesday, 10 years after being founded in Missouri as a Y Combinator startup. You see, Yetis, the way Jack and I see equipment share, we thought of it at first like the Airbnb for construction equipment, but they're not just dishing out drills for the day.
They're actually renting out entire fleets of construction vehicles to build an entire real estate development. We're talking 373 physical locations with 8 billion worth of vehicles, $325,000 things with huge wheels. It's basically a toddler's dream. It is. They got John Deere excavators, Genie lifts, Hitachi bulldozers.
Equipment share, if you're listening right now, if you can invite Jack, me, and our two two-year-old toddler boys to your next earnings report, we would really appreciate that. So, Equipment Share rents these vehicles and sells them outright. But here's the key. All of their construction vehicles are connected to software.
That's right. Each vehicle has cameras and sensors to track productivity. Basically, smart machines. Half of the fleet they rent out and the other half they sell. But all of the vehicles are managed by equipment share software. So they're making money three different ways off the customers. And here's the value proposition to the builders.
With these smart construction vehicles, your project will run faster, the equipment will last longer, safety will improve, and the cost will come way down. The result, the average revenue growth over equipment share is 140%. They're doing 4 billion bucks a year in annual revenue, targeting a $6 billion valuation.
That is almost one lift. But we can tell you who's not going to buy Equipment Share stock on their IPO day. Yeah. And who is that, Jack? CNBC's Jim Kramer. Exactly. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our digging buddies over at Equipment Share? When it comes to stocks, the word cyclical makes investors sick.
Hey Yetis, back in November, Jack and I read Jim Kramer's book on investing. And then we got to interview Jim about that book at the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. His key insight is that you only want stocks that can grow in any market. Equipment share, unfortunately, is not one of them. Remember that 140% growth rate Jack and I just mentioned?
Well, that was their average growth rate since they were founded. More recently, it's been much more slow. In fact, their growth rate has shrunk every year since 2022 and is down to just 27% growth last year. Well, what happened exactly in 2022 that hit their growth, Jack? Inflation and interest rates both spiked.
Mhm. And high interest rates basically kill the construction industry. It's like automotive and airlines. Construction is a cyclical industry. It does well when the economy is doing well, but it shrinks when the economy is not. That's why equipment share is on track for their first year of losses since 2019.
Look, besties, equipment share sounds like a great biz. Again, kind of fun to call it the Airbnb of construction stuff, but they could lag the rest of the stock market long term because it's cyclical. When it comes to stocks, the word cyclical makes investors sick. For our second story, Sachs Fifth Avenue just filed for bankruptcy, taking down Nean Marcus and Burgdorf Goodman with it.
Cudigraph for Saks Fifth A when Louis Vuitton built their own fifth ah Jack if we're going to talk Sachs. I mean, great childhood memories here. My mom taking me down to the Sachs window in December to sit on Santa's lap. Great times. I'm picturing gimbals from Elf. Is that what you're talking about?
But with better windows. Yeti Saks Fifth Avenue. The department store so fancy they wrote it in script and stuck the address in the name. Is Fifth Avenue famous because of Saks Fifth Avenue? Actually, Jack Saxs did put Fifth Avenue on the map. There's a great book about it. It's called The Women Who Ran Fifth Avenue.
And Saxs made Fifth Avenue fashion avenue. Nice. And Andrew Saxs is a German Jewish immigrant who opened up his first store 159 years ago. Surprisingly, not in New York, but in Washington, DC. In fact, yetis, that first sack store in 1867 was a retail disruptor of the post civil war era. The first store where everything had the same price and the first major store to offer refunds.
Their famous Fifth Avenue location in New York between 49th and 50th Streets arrived in 1924. Perfect timing. Roaring 20s, profit puppy. But then eight mergers and acquisitions later, Saks Fifth Avenue peaked in the year 2001. They IPOed. They had 200 stores, 6 billion bucks in revenue. The numbers were looking Gucci.
It survived urban flight to the suburbs in the 1970s. It survived e-commerce in the 2000s. It even survived Tik Tok Shop today. Well, about that last one. Yeah, Jacket survived, not thrived. Because here's the news. Sachs missed a $100 million interest payment last month and just filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
The company's broke. They owe Louis Vuitton $22 million. They owe Michael Kors $33 million and they owe Chanel $136 million for the merchandise in their store that they haven't paid for yet. Oh, and those luxury brands, they want cash, not cashmere. Now, the judge is going to decide which brand gets paid what.
And meanwhile, the stores will remain open. But besties, here's what Jack and I find fascinating. What really triggered the ending for this 159year-old brand? A real estate deal that Sachs couldn't pay the mortgage on. You see, yetis, back in 2024, Sachs borrowed two billion bucks to acquire their rival, Nean Marcus.
Basically, they tried to eat their rival, but Neiman was so big, Sax choked on it. And remember, in 2024, interest rates were high. Interest alone on that loan cost 400 million bucks. And then 2025 was a tough year for Sachs, so they ran out of money. The way Jack and I see the situation, it's kind of like Sachs was stuck in one of those safari situations you see on National Geographic, right, Jack?
Look at that alligator. He's trying to eat that hippopotamus. I think it's too big for him. Oh my goodness. HE'S GOING FOR IT ANYWAY. EXACTLY. Like the gator of Sachs tried to eat the hippo of Neman in one bite and basically got crushed. And why try to swallow a company so big? Well, this story reveals Saks Fifth Avenue's real business model these days.
That's right. Sax is actually a real estate firm that happens to sell dresses. Sax's most valuable asset was the building on Fifth Avenue and 50th Street, which is worth an estimated $4 billion. But Sax really wanted that Burgdorf store on 57th and Fifth Avenue, owned by Neman, basically the Golden Corner, incredibly valuable.
So that 10% mortgage that Sax took on to acquire that Burgdorf store was kind of a hailmary desperation play for a department store that was past its peak. Sachs, a real estate firm dressed in a tuxedo. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Saks Fifth Avenue? Louis Vuitton went around Sax's back.
They went around their back or stabbed them in the back, Jack. I think they went around the back. Okay, they went around the back. Yetis, the number one reason why department stores existed, curation. That's the value prop. All the brands you could want all in one place. It was convenience for the shopper and it helped them discover new brands, too.
But over time, luxury brands realized it's way more profitable to just go direct consumer. In fact, 95% of Prada, Gucci, and Louis Vuitton sales these days are direct, bypassing the department store middleman. I mean, Jack, why go to Sachs on Fifth when you can go to the Louis Vuitton Tower, also right down the street on Fifth Avenue.
Nowadays, you get your content, your information, and your handbags direct. And that was the latest blow for Sachs. Louis Vuitton went around its back. Hey Yetis, if you're a bestie, take a sec and hit that subscribe button and like this video while you're at it. If you leave a comment, by the way, we'll read it.
For our third and final story, with Tinder and Bumble stocks both down 80%, Grinder is still growing. Because unlike other dating apps, Grinder is selling to you even after you stopped swiping. Yetis, you know how you know Grinder is a millennial tech company? How do you know it, Jack? They dropped the vow.
Yeah. Gr R I N D R. Yeah, they dropped the E there. Got rid of the E. Classic giveaway. It's got 15 million users though who spend 67 minutes a day on average on Swipe. Oh, but those users, they are active, man. They sent 130 billion chats on Grinder in 2024. And their next leg of growth is Grinder AI, or as they call it, GI.
But Grinder is the only dating app right now whose numbers are going up and to the right. Revenues and profits hit an all-time high for Grinder last quarter. Over at Match, revenue shrank three of the last four quarters. Bumble, their revenue has fallen five straight quarters. It's a classic case of Tinder fatigue.
Gen Z is simply done having pictures of their face swiped left or right on somebody's phone. It's a little different though for the gay community, which needs a safe space. And Grinder, they've provided that for nearly two decades now. But Grinder is preparing for a postdating app world. They're doing it by building an entire gay super app.
Oh, or Jack, a super gay app, if you will. you know, not just for dating, but for selling selling things like hair products. This is all based on internal documentation from Grinder that leaked to Business Insider. It's called the Gabhood Strategy. Again, Gabhood, their term. Grinder has 15 million people who open the app every month, but also tens of hundreds of millions more who use the app in the past and it's probably still downloaded on their phone.
It's a digital gabhood that the community loves and appreciates. You found your guy on the Grinder app. So now Grinder wants to capitalize on that love from the gay community with stores to sell you stuff. Basically turn that digital neighborhood into a real functioning style neighborhood or a marketplace.
For example, they launched an erectile dysfunction pill just last year called, wait for it, woodwork. They also want to sell you hair care, skincare, meds, and merch in the future. Also likely with some very punny names. The product road map that leaked shows four successful direct to consumer businesses by 2028.
All outside of the core dating app business. Add it all up and Grinder calls it a gay super app. A gay super app. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Grinder? If you're going to expand the neighborhood, make sure it's with repeat rabbits. Yet Grinder knows that its customer base will eventually stop using the core product.
Right, Jack? So now they're leveraging their real asset, their brand, to sell those customers physical things, too. Okay, but pause the pod. The one thing Jack and I noticed, these direct to consumer businesses Grinder is entering are recurring businesses. Recurring as in not oneoff sales. For example, if you buy Grinder skin cream someday, you're going to buy them every few months as you run out.
It's the same with the hair care, the skin care, the pills. They're not one-offs like an Instapot or a board game. And this is the same reason why every celebrity or influencer has their own energy drink now. Totally. They're looking for new revenue sources and they want those revenue sources to be recurring.
Besties, one-off products can be good for business, but recurring products more reliably drive profits long term. If you're going to expand your neighborhood, make sure it's with repeat rabbits. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the new Friday? Saks Fifth Avenue declared bankruptcy because its acquisition of Neiman Marcus was just too big to eat.
It's death by debt, but Louis Vuitton held the dagger. For our second story, Grinder's business is still all-time highing, but they're expanding to become a gay super app anyway. They're expanding the neighborhood, but they're doing it with repeat rabbit products. And our third and final story is Equipment Share.
The stock hits the stock market next week. It's a huge milestone going public with an IPO. It's a great business, but a cyclical business, and that limits its stocks growth. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Carmen San Diego s we got to do a rundown of some geopolitical updates out there.
In Greenland, the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, met with Denmark, who insisted that Greenland is not for sale. But the two sides agreed to disagree and continue talking. Over in Iran, the president says that the killing of Iranian protesters has stopped and he's ruling out military action for now.
No major updates right now on the Panama Canal or Venezuela, the two other geopolitical hotspots the president is very interested in. And second, Delta Airlines is apparently becoming a luxury product. Their premium cabin sales have eclipsed their coach cabin sales for the first time ever, even though the premium cabins are just 30% of the seats.
It's like a 12 tier society up in the sky. Delta 1, First Class, Premium Select, Delta Comfort Plus, Delta Comfort. They bring in more than half the bacon, even though they're just 30% of the seats. It's the air travel evidence of the K-shaped economy. Wealthier Eagle to spend more on tickets, but not so wealthy trying to save every buck they count on in seats.
And finally, Nike's first pickle ball deal. Wow. Nike signed Anna Lee Waters to an endorsement deal, and she's a pickle baller. Yeah, this 18-year-old is the LeBron of the kitchen, the number one ranked in singles and doubles and mixed in 2023. Nick and I wish that Nike would acquire Major League Pickle Ball.
Just saying this isn't that. We basically predicted this, Jack. I think we got to give ourselves some credit on this one. This isn't that, but we were directionally correct 3 years early. Nike, just buy the whole league. Just do it. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Rob Yosway from lovely litz, Pennsylvania.
Do you RSVP to my party? You know, did I RSVP to your party? I think I forgot to RSVP into your party, Jack. Well, it's just a segue because uh the abbreviation RSVP is the star of this fact. I was going to say I don't feel like I got an invite to your party, Jack. What does RSVP stand for? Well, it's actually a French phrase and in French it stands for civu play, which means respond please or more directly, respond if it pleases you.
Speaking of France, White Lotus season 4 is named their destination. Not possible, Jack. It's a hotel in the south of France. I'm pretty sure you've never been to. No spoilers, Jack. No spoilers. Yetis, you look fantastic for the new Friday. And the best thing you can do to grow the show. What is it, Jack?
Share this show right now with a friend. Yeah. By copying a link to the episode, pasting it into your group chat. And MCA, we know you're listening. Actually, he's probably looking at himself in the mirror. All right. You can send it to yourself, MC. Send it to yourself. hyd. If you know, you know. And before we go, a woof woof to Cooper the Husky.
Happy Gotcha Day down in Charlotte, North Carolina. Thanks for listening to this pod every day on your walks. And happy 20th birthday to Prrenav Gaju in Kerry, North Carolina. And Isaac Ausu in Cincinnati, Ohio's turning 36, listening with this fantastic two and four-year-olds. Happy birthday to Terrence Agby in Jersey City who's also just become a dad.
And Declan Bernard's over in Portland, Oregon, celebrating the best birthday yet. Happy birthday to Lindsay Drager in New York City. And a shout out to Pamela Miller, a legendary yeti who points out it is International Voter Registration Day. Get yourself signed up. And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T- Boy.
Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. I own stock of Bumble. Nick owns stock of Nike. And we both own stock in Airbnb.
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