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the world's economy is a complex web of interdependent systems and when one piece of the puzzle goes away the ripple effect can be felt around the globe that's precisely what happened in 2008 when the surprise mortgage crisis in the United States triggered a global recession that affected countries from Asia to Europe to the Americas the Great Recession as it came to be known lasted for years and left deep scars on economies and societies worldwide now in 2023 as the world continues to Grapple with the ongoing covid-19 pandemic many economists and analysts are warning of a potential new Global recession will there be another Global recession how intense will it be let us all find it out in today's video but first let's know what a global recession really is a global recession is a period of economic downturn that affects multiple countries and regions around the world it is typically characterized by declining economic activity Rising unemployment and a Slowdown in trade and investment while recessions can occur at the national level a global recession is a much more severe and far-reaching phenomenon that can have profound implications for the global economy and society as a whole the causes of global recessions are varied and complex they can be triggered by a range of factors including financial crisis natural disasters political instability and external shocks like pandemics or trade Wars in the case of the Great Recession of 2008 the trigger was the Supreme mortgage crisis in the United States which quickly spread to financial markets around the world and led to a widespread credit Crunch and economic contraction on the other hand the impact of a global recession is typically felt most acutely in the developing world where economies are more vulnerable to external shocks and where large numbers of people are already living in poverty in many countries a recession can mean a sharp rise in unemployment reduced access to health care and education and a decline in living standards with the concepts about global recession the big question now is whether there will be a global recession now noriel rubini has something to say about this but first let me introduce you to rubini noriel rubini is an American Economist who gained widespread recognition for his accurate prediction of the 2008 financial crisis he was born on March 29 1958 in Istanbul Turkey but grew up in Iran and later moved to Italy with his family Reuben a earned a PhD in economics from Harvard University in 1988 and has since held a number of prestigious academic Physicians including teaching at Yale University and New York University he is currently a professor of Economics at nyu's Stern School of Business in addition to his academic work rubini is also known for his work as a policy advisor and commentator on global economic issues he has served as a senior Economist for the international monetary fund the U.S treasury Department and the Council of economic advisors under President Bill Clinton Ruben is also the founder of rubiny global economics a consultancy firm that provides economic analysis to businesses and governments around the world he is often referred to as Dr Doom for his pessimistic predictions about the global economy but he has also been recognized for his prescience and accuracy in forecasting major economic events now noriel rubini has been warning about the potential for a global recession for quite some time now in recent years he has been particularly vocal about his concerns citing a range of factors that he believes make a recession increasingly likely to begin with it is important to understand rubini's General outlook on the global economy he has long argued that the global economy is inherently unstable and prone to cyclical downturns and he has warned that policymakers are not doing enough to address the structural issues that underlie this instability its predictions are based on a number of factors including the ongoing COV id19 pandemic geopolitical tensions and the fragility of many economies around the world rubini's perspective on the question of whether there will be a global recession is rooted in his deep understanding of economic systems and his experience as an advisor to governments and businesses around the world he believes that the global economy is facing a number of significant challenges and that these challenges could easily lead to a recession if they are not addressed one of the biggest factors contributing to the potential for a global recession according to rubini is the ongoing covid-19 pandemic we'll have other pandemics covid-19 will be the last one so either is when the fortune to prevent the next one or expose like we did this time around we have to spend a huge amount of money to reduce the economic damage from the next pandemic the pandemic has you pended economies around the world causing widespread unemployment and disrupting Supply chains in manufacturing processes many businesses have been forced to close or scale back operations and governments have had to spend trillions of dollars to support their citizens and prop up their economies rubini believes that the pandemic is far from over and that its impact on the global economy will be felt for years to come he points to the emergence of new variants of the virus and the slow pace of vaccination efforts in many countries as evidence that the pandemic is still a major threat another one is the level of debt in the global economy you start with debt as one of the great crises now what we are told about debts is that yes it's high but we have a plan to bring it down over time so there's no problem rubini has argued that the world is Awash in debt with many countries companies and individuals carrying unsustainable levels of borrowing this he argues makes the global economy vulnerable to a range of shocks including Rising interest rates falling asset prices and sudden shifts in investor sentiment furthermore the geopolitical landscape is a factor too he has warned that Rising tensions between major Powers including the United States and China could destabilize the global economy and trigger a recession he has also expressed concern about the rise of populist movements around the world arguing that these movements could undermine the stability of established political and Economic Institutions rubiny has also warned about the potential impact of technological change on the global economy he has argued that advances in Automation and artificial intelligence could lead to widespread job displacement and a decline in living standards for many people this he argues could further undermine the stability of the global economy and contribute to a recession despite these concerns rubiny has also identified some potential triggers for a global recession one of the most significant of these is the ongoing trade war between the United States and China rubeni has argued that the trade War could have a major impact on the global economy particularly if it escalates further he has warned that the tariffs and other trade barriers being imposed by the two countries could lead to a decline in global trade a rise in inflation and a decline in business investment another potential trigger for a recession according to rubini is a sudden shift in investor sentiment he has argued that the current economic expansion has been fueled in part by a sense of optimism among investors who have poured money into stocks bonds and other assets however if that optimism were to evaporate suddenly rubeni warns that the resulting decline in asset prices could trigger a global recession so given all of these factors what is rubini's overall assessment of the likelihood of a global recession in short he believes that the risks are high in growing has argued that policymakers have not done enough to address the structural issues that underlie the instability of the global economy and that the current expansion is unsustainable so people all of us should really start doing the right thing as we Face these crisis suddenly people are going to realize we have to start to do the right thing he has also warned that the potential triggers for a recession are numerous and growing and that a downturn could come at any time of course it is worth noting that not everyone shares rubini's perspective some economists and analysts argue that the global economy is fundamentally strong and that the current expansion could continue for years to come what do you think about this topic do you really believe that we are nearing a recession
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