저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 시겔 교수는 연준의 금리 인상이 과도하며 6월 동결(pause)이 유력하고, 고용·CPI 지표가 약해지면 금리 인하 가능성까지 보며, 경기침체 없이 2024년 주식시장이 좋을 것이라고 전망한다. 연준 정책: 연준은 데이터 의존적이며 고용이 핵심 변수다. 다음 주 금요일 발표되는 고용지표(비농업 고용)가 가장 중요하며, 고용이 10만 명 미만으로 둔화되고 실업률이 3.5~3.6%로 오르면 동결이 확실하다고 본다. 실업률이 3.3%로 떨어지면 매파가 활발해진다. 인플레이션: 상품가격이 여전히 하락 추세이고, 임대료 지표를 반영한 근원 CPI 전년比가 약 2%에 근접했다고 본다. 올해 하반기 BLS 주택 데이터 지연 반영으로 목표치 근처에 도달할 것이며, 추가 긴축은 불필요한 위험이라고 주장한다. 금리 전망: 연준이 동결 후 올해 안에 금리를 인하할 것으로 기대한다. 미국채 10년물 금리 방향에 대한 명시적 수치 언급은 없다. 고용 둔화 시 시장 심리: 고용지표가 마이너스로 나오면 헤드라인이 충격을 주고 심리가 바뀔 수 있어 연준이 동결해야 한다고 본다. 기업 실적: 1분기 실적이 견조하고 가이던스는 혼재되어 있으며, 실적이 현재 침체를 반영하는지에 대해서는 실적이 버티고 있다고 평가한다. 심각한 경기침체가 오면 주식시장 상승이 어렵다고 한다. 시장 전망: 올해 S&P500은 대략 0~10% 범위에서 현재 약 10% 상단 부근에 있다고 보며, 경기침체가 없다면 2024년도 주식시장에 매우 좋은 해가 될 것이라고 전망한다. 부채한도: 디폴트 가능성은 사실상 없다고 보며, 숏 포지션 커버링이 나타날 수 있다고 한다. 한국·개별종목·가상자산 관련 발언: 영상에서 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
short while ago Minneapolis fed president Neil kashikari joined us had this to say about a potential pause in rate hikes on the way I think right now it's a close call either way versus raising another time in June or skipping some of my colleagues have talked about skipping important to me is not signaling that we're done if we did if we were to skip in June that does not mean we're done with our tightening cycle it means to me we're getting more information do we then start raising again in July potentially and so that's the most important thing to me is that we're not taking it off the table our next guest has been a Critic of the feds rate hiking path joining us now is Jeremy Siegel professor emeritus of Finance at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business and Professor Siegel uh what kashgari had to say there uh essentially is data dependence we're at a point where the target rate is not too far from where they anticipated it needed to go on the other hand inflation not down to their goal does that make sense to you here yeah I I think it is very data dependent let me tell you the data that I I think it's dependent on I think it's uh dependent on the payroll data that we're going to get a week from Friday um if that is really hot and if the unemployment rate takes down to a a new like 70-year low of 3.3 percent boy the Hawks will be very active uh at the jew meaning however if there's a Slowdown as expected if payroll growth is under a hundred thousand if the unemployment rate goes up to three five or even three six I I think that absolutely uh means a pause so I I'm looking at that payroll number as probably the deciding number I do know that they get that CPI on the first day of their two-day meeting um for for the month of May and certainly that will factor in but I think employment is the is is the key to Fed decisions now it's fascinating in the sense uh Professor Siegel that we have had no response in terms of uh slow down in employment really in the observable uh metrics after 500 basis points of fed hikes over you know a little more than a year uh so I do wonder if if that still seems to be the swing factor that it it has always been historically well I I I say no slowdown is a little bit of an overstatement if you take a look at the increase in non-farm payroll you do see a downward Trend um it isn't as downward as as we thought actually not as downward as I thought I thought we would you know be getting near zero and maybe a negative print uh that may have to wait until till fall um but definitely there has been a slowing in in fact even uh Jay Powers acknowledged that there has been a a slowing of of that rate um it's just been a bit slower than we thought and I think that's what's encouraged the market hey I don't see a recession there earnings are holding up um uh at this point and uh and by the way I I don't think there's going to be not only do I not think I'm virtually certain there's no default and no one wants to be caught short on the market on a day the deal is made so I I think we have a lot of shorts are covering for that potential uh outcome of the next couple of weeks Jeremy um you've been right about inflation coming down and it has come down nicely with what you've talked about for a long time which is the decline in uh some of the monetary Aggregates but what we're hearing from the FED is two things one is the progress has slowed and you can kind of see that if you look at the inflation numbers and the other thing is that it hasn't come down enough at least even with a negative year-over-year change in the money supply you haven't gotten back to the two percent Target is your advice to the FED just let it run and it's going to come back or do you think maybe they might have to do more here in order to bring down inflation to their target no that they shouldn't they shouldn't do more if you do okay take a look at sensitive commodity prices they're still in a downtrend um I I keep current CPI and core using the the willow the apartment list rental the case shoulder and by the way I get core now at year over year two and in fact even Kashkari and power acknowledge that in second half of this year uh as the lagged BLS housing data shows the decline they're going to get near their target I think by continuing to raise their they're adding way undue risk um you know sentiment isn't good there is that downturn and boy I'll tell you if you get a negative print on payroll and um it's gonna hit the headlines and that could turn psychology and you don't want that to happen my feeling is they pause and and hopefully I think they're actually going to be reducing by year in Jeremy I have to ask you about the earnings Outlook are earnings now priced for a recession at this point or do you think there would be further to go if indeed there were a recession uh in in terms of marking down earnings well interestingly enough earnings are holding um because you know uh what we've been getting so far on the first quarter has been good uh guidance has been mixed listen if we have a severe recession it it'll be hard for the stock market to make progress you know then I said you're at a 10 a zero to ten for the year we're at that 10 as uh as Mike said with with dividends we're nine right now so we're at that Upper A recession would keep it bouncing around there um but I still think 2024 even with the recession looks like a very good year for the stock market
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