저자: Ladawan—영상내주발언자는JeremyGrantham인용형식이며소속은GMO로언급됨 · 외국인
요약 보기
제러미 그랜섬(GMO 공동창업자)의 AI 버블 경고를 소개. AI 기업은 실제 매출이 있으나 주가가 미래 이익 기대를 과도하게 반영해 실적이 기대에 못 미치면 급락할 수 있다고 지적. 2000년 닷컴 버블(나스닥 약 80% 하락, 회복까지 10년) 등 역사적 사례를 들어 버블의 공통 패턴 설명. 그랜섬은 AI가 세상을 바꿀 것이라 믿으나 가격 적정성을 문제 삼음. 투자자는 비중 점검, 자산 분산, 유동성 확보를 권고. 구체적 가격 방향 예측 수치는 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Jemy Gantum, the father of investing, warned of the biggest AI bubble ever. History is about to unfold for all of us. Should investors flee or stay? Hi everyone! Welcome back to The Money by Dawan channel. If... I'm asking my friends, which investor warned about fsebu.com before the Nasda stock market crashed by almost 80%, and also warned about the Prime Minister's asset crisis?
Before the 2008 global financial crisis, the same person is warning again that the market... US stocks, especially AI stocks, are in a high-risk environment, and that person... That 's Jeremy Grandum, a legendary investor. And the co-founder of the asset management company gmo.com, or vikid.com, in 2000, during the real estate crisis.
And then there was the Brahmin property loan in 2008. They believed that every bubble has a pattern. They are similar, and one of them is that they involve new technology or new stories. The second world-changing event was that investors started to believe. Expectations of massive profits; 3. Asset prices soaring faster than business growth; 4.
Unrealistic expectations; and 5. When reality lags behind, prices plummet. A drastic shift will begin. Jerry never said that AI has no future. On the contrary, he believes that AI will change the world just like the internet did. But what... The question he was asking was, "Are investors paying too much?" Is this going too far?
Just imagine a coffee shop... One shop makes 2 million baht in profit per year, but there are... The offer to buy the business for 500 million baht is unreasonable. The stock market is similar; many AI companies have real revenue and profits, but their stock prices... It reflects expectations of future profits far beyond what is expected.
What if profit growth is lower than market expectations? Even a small drop in the stock price can cause it to fall. This strength is the risk that Wall Street is trying to warn about. There's a saying: "Blue Market Close, Believe Blue Market Closer," meaning a bull market makes everyone believe that prices will rise.
It keeps going up when the stock price rises every day, investors. I'm starting to think that this time is different. (This time is different, but this sentence...) It has happened many times before. History pre-jailbroken Japan: Before the real estate crisis. Each time, investors believe the world has changed.
And ultimately, the share price reflects that. Economically true. What lessons can we learn from the railroad bubble and vigit.com? In the 19th century, investors rushed to buy shares in every railroad company. I know trains are going to change the world, which is true, but... Many companies went bankrupt because of...
High competition, over-investment, and low returns. It was worth the money spent, and later in 1999, the internet became a global technology. The future for many companies is simply... But despite having no revenue, the share price surged several percent. When the bubble burst, NASDAC plummeted nearly 80%.
Many investors needed a long time to recover. A decade to get back to square one—that's interesting. The point is, the internet hasn't failed, it's the price. The stocks were too expensive at that time; this is what happened. The Grand Prix wants investors to differentiate themselves. Great technology doesn't mean...
Buying stocks at any price level will yield good returns. And everyone knows why a major crisis is about to happen. Most analysts didn't issue any warnings. Many investors wonder if the stock is truly overvalued. Why do I still see so many positive analyses? One reason for the structure of Wall Street is that brokerage firms generate revenue from trading.
Investment banks generate income from fundraising. Many funds provide capital and bring companies public. Competition driven by short-term returns creates momentum. Furthermore, it motivates investors to view the market positively. Analysis that warns too early may be seen as... They missed the opportunity while the market was still rising.
Therefore, fewer people will dare to warn than those who encourage buying. And if US stocks actually correct, the money will... Where do we drift to in the past when we're feeling anxious? Investors tend to move money into assets that have high returns. Lower risk options include government bonds and cash.
Gold is an inexpensive stock that pays well. Consistent dividend payouts are a key consideration for Thai investors. The question is, is our portfolio too reliant on US stocks? Would you go for it if tech stocks were considered animals? The majority of the portfolio is diversified to... Other assets or regions may help reduce volatility, however, adjustments should be considered.
Based on investment goals and risk tolerance. This is acceptable not only because of short-term concerns, as Jemy Canom views Bitcoin. There is no underlying value to support it, therefore it is risky. High if market sentiment changes. This might contradict the views of many other investors. Those who disagree believe that Bitcoin...
It qualifies as a digital asset. Due to limited resources, this issue is currently unresolved. In summary, investors should study both perspectives before making a decision for long-term investment. Grantham believes that opportunity lies in businesses that help others. Solving global problems such as clean energy and management.
Environmental resources and technologies included. Regarding the development of skills that are still difficult for AI to replace. And finally, everyone, the last thing is... Ganum wasn't trying to convey a message that everyone should rush to sell. All stocks, but be cautious when considering the value.
The market is at a high level, and investor expectations are high. Invest more, please. The Playbook they're offering has three points. The first is to check the investment allocation and make sure it's not... One stock or team is too heavy a weight; the second point is to diversify your investments across multiple sources.
Assets from multiple regions and industries. Reduce the risk of clustering, especially. It's not just US stocks right now. Grantham itself has sold off all of its US stock portfolio. And so, we've diversified our investments into... It's a diversified range of industrial assets, and... To reduce risk, point number 3 is to prepare some liquidity because of every market correction.
It often creates opportunities for those who have the money to invest. Regarding scholarships, and finally, if any of my friends... I liked this video, and it was helpful. Please like, share, and subscribe to The Money by Dawan channel so you don't miss any analysis. In terms of economics, investment includes stocks, gold, and other assets.
We've curated some digital items for you every week. See you again in the next video, and finally, no... Does anyone know when a bubble will form? It's a complete collapse, but what investors can control is... Managing risk and not letting emotions control you. I'm making this decision and I wish all my friends good luck. Goodbye for today. [clears throat]
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