저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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5/16 기준 수입·수출물가 급등(수입 전월비 1.9%, 수출 3.3%, 수출 전년비 8.8%)을 인플레 가속 신호로 제시. 이로 인해 국채금리 상승·유가 상승이 이어질 것이라 주장. 금·은 조정은 매수 기회로 보고, 금리 상승은 실질금리 하락 측면에서 금에 유리하다고 주장. 채권금리 상승이 AI·기술주 및 비트코인 버블을 터뜨릴 것으로 경고. 비트코인은 2026 하반기가 상반기보다 더 나쁠 것으로 전망. 금광주(GDX/GDXJ) 매수 및 EPGIX 추천.
다듬은 글
But, our export prices have to do with internal price pressures here in the United States because the stuff that we produce and export now costs more. Yield prices higher and bonds lower. Plus, you got rising oil prices that are in these numbers, but they're not in the core numbers, which are lousy.
But, oil prices went up. They're going to continue to go up. Bond yields are going to continue to go up. The only thing that won't continue is gold and silver going down. The latest inflation numbers just shocked the market, and according to Peter Schiff, this is only the beginning. Import prices surged nearly 2% in a single month, while export prices exploded over 3%, signaling that inflation in the United States is accelerating far faster than expected.
Schiff says these numbers are the real warning signs the Federal Reserve can no longer ignore. While many investors still believe inflation is temporary, Schiff argues the exact opposite. He believes rising bond yields, soaring oil prices, and increasing production costs are setting the stage for a major economic crisis.
And here's the twist. Even though gold and silver prices dropped this week, Schiff says that's actually bullish. Why? Because higher inflation destroys the value of bonds and weakens real interest rates, making gold and silver more attractive long-term. He also warned that Bitcoin, AI stocks, and the tech bubble could face a massive collapse once bond yields rise further.
According to Schiff, the market is ignoring the fundamentals. But, not for long. His message is clear. Smart investors are using this dip to buy more gold and silver before the next major rally begins. The big question now is, will the Federal Reserve finally admit inflation is out of control? Or is an even bigger financial shock coming next?
For more exclusive market insights, precious metals analysis, or real financial updates, subscribe to Beyond Bullion now and stay ahead of the system. Today that I didn't talk about on my normal podcast was import-export prices. And those of you who are long-time listeners will recall that early in 2021 while everyone was still talking about you know, transitory or you know, there's no need for the Fed to hike, inflation's under control.
They were looking at the CPI, it was still pretty benign. I was pointing out import-export prices to my audience saying, you got to look here. This is like the early warning. Especially since these numbers are not adjusted. There's no hedonics, there's no substitution. They're just the raw prices, the raw import and the raw export prices.
Well, import prices were up 1.9% on the month. That's almost your entire 2% inflation in just one month. Uh and the prior number was tweaked up from 0.8 to 0.9. Uh the consensus was for a 1% increase, which in and of itself would have been bad. But it was almost 2%, almost double. Uh nobody expected that.
The range of expectations were from 0.8 to 1.1. Year over year import prices now up 4.2% versus 2.1%. Not only is this bad news for consumers who are buying these imports, but it also proves again that Trump was lying when he said that foreigners would eat our tariffs. Because the only way for foreigners to eat our tariffs is to lower their prices by an amount equal to the tariffs because the tariffs are not imposed until the goods get to the United States.
So, let's say there's a widget that we're importing from China that costs $10. And now Trump puts a 25% tariff on it. The only way we can still get the item for $100 and pay the 25% tariff is if the other country cuts the price of their goods, maybe down to 75 cents. I'm not doing the exact math. But then if they take a 25% hit and then we import it 20 at 75 cents and then add the the tariff, now we can get up to a dollar.
That's the only way that Americans avoid the tariff. But the fact that import prices are up by 4.2% means that foreigners aren't eating anything. Americans today are paying 4.2% more to import foreign products and then on top of that, they are paying whatever's left of Trump's tariffs. So, there's the proof.
Foreigners are not paying the tariffs, we are. It's amazing that he can still get away with this and the Republicans let him get away with it. Of course, you know, they let him get away with anything because he has so much control over the Republican Party. And if they end up ousting Thomas Massie on Tuesday, he's going to have even more control.
Which, you know, he's the best congressman we've got. That's why Trump wants to get rid of him cuz he's the main guy that's objecting to all the deficit spending, all the undeclared wars, the tariffs, all the bad things that Trump is doing, Massie's trying to stop it. He's the only one with any guts to stand up to him because everybody else is quivering in their boots cuz they're afraid of not getting reelected, of Trump backing one of their primary challengers.
This is the attitude that's going to wreck the Republican Party uh the economy is going to be so weak, inflation is going to be so strong, and the Republicans are going to have to take all the blame. But, as bad as the import numbers were, the export numbers were even worse. Export prices in April surged by 3.3% in 1 month.
Right? That would still be a big number if it took all year, cuz it would be way above like 2%. 1 month, 3.3%. That's more than double the 1.6% of the prior month. Year-over-year export prices are now up 8.8%. I think you got to go back to early 2022 to see a big a jump that high. 8.8%. That's almost 9%.
The prior month was 5.6. Look at that trajectory. How can the Fed still have an easing bias in the face of these inflation numbers? Annualized 3.3. What the hell does that number come out to? Uh yeah, again, maybe that's the one that's like 70%. Maybe uh the two is maybe 30%. I don't know, but it is a huge huge number.
Now, some people might say, "Well, Peter, why do we care about export prices? Because we're not paying those prices, right? That's that's our trading partners' problem, right? They got to pay the higher prices." Well, the point is that just about everything we export, we also consume. Right? We export agricultural products, we export energy, you know, there you know, there are some products that we export.
Well, if we have to charge 3.3% more for our exports, stands to reason we're also charging more for what we don't export, for what Americans buy, costs are going up across the board for American producers. And so they pray they raise their prices to all their customers, whether they're abroad or domestically.
But also, there are factors, US related factors that are driving up those prices. So, import prices are more controlled by external factors, plus the exchange rate, right, of the dollar, which hasn't really changed much. But our export prices have to do with internal price pressures here in the United States, because the stuff that we produce and export now costs more.
And because it costs more, it reveals that there is higher inflation. And that higher inflation is not just going to bite the export markets, it's going to bite the domestic market. So, in actual fact, in many respects, the export prices are more important, because that 100% reflects US inflation. Whereas import prices can reflect the inflation our trading partners are experiencing.
So, this was it. This was a trifecta of bad news on inflation that drove yield prices higher and bonds lower. Plus, you got rising oil prices that are in these numbers, but they're not in the core numbers, which are lousy. But oil prices went up. They're going to continue to go up. Bond yields are going to continue to go up.
The only thing that won't continue is gold and silver going down. In fact, you know, they were making good progress until uh until today. So, took a big step back as far as the price is concerned, but again, I'm nowhere near recommending that SchiffGold customers sell their gold or their silver. So, the fact that prices came down and we're not selling doesn't bother us.
But what it does do is create an opportunity to buy more. And if you don't own any gold and silver, shame on you, but buy some now. Take advantage. In fact, again, Schiff Gold is open 24/7 over the weekends. In fact, you can go to the app store and download the Schiff Gold app and you can buy gold and silver this weekend while it's on sale on the app and you're buying it from people who are foolish enough to sell it because they don't understand that rising bond yields are not bad for gold.
They are good for gold. The only yields that really count are short-term yields. If they were rising, that could be a problem, but not if they're rising more slowly than inflation. Then it's not a problem. Then it's actually a benefit because if short rates are going up less than inflation is going up, then real short rates are coming down.
And remember, it's the real rate that counts. Nominal is just for show for show. The real rates are for dough, right? And and and traders are just completely missing the forest for the trees here, but that is giving us an opportunity. Giving my customers at Schiff Gold an opportunity. And in fact, if you're also taking advantage of the gold mining stocks, uh the gold stocks got clobbered this week.
The GDX today was down 7%. GDXJ down 7.4. On the week, the GDX was down 10.4%. GDXJ actually a little less, 10.2. Year-to-date, both indexes are still up, but barely. Up just 2% on the GDX and 3% on the GDXJ. That's less than the increase in gold and silver. You've got a great buying opportunity on Monday.
Uh obviously, maybe it won't be as good if these stocks open higher, but you should be buying these things on Monday. You can't do it over the weekend like you can buy physical gold and silver. And by the way, if you haven't set up your T-Gold account at SchiffGold, go to tgold.com, set up an account, and start filling up your wallet with some virtual gold and silver that you will need one day as a medium of exchange.
Um, but on Monday you can go and invest in My Gold Fund or any gold fund or any gold stock. I mean, I'm obviously partial and biased to mine, but Adrian Day runs it for me. I think he's the best. That's why I hired him. I [clears throat] knew he'd do a better job than me. So, I hired him to be my stock picker and that's what you need.
You need a great spot stock picker, especially in the junior miners, which is about a third of the portfolio. Uh, so I would recommend, you know, EPGIX. That is the no-load ticker symbol. You could buy it at any discount broker. You can also buy the shares directly on the Euro Pacific site. Don't forget though, there's a prescription prospectus on europac.com.
Read it. I There's a lot more risk in buying gold and silver mining stocks than there is in buying gold and silver, but I also think there's a lot more upside. And so, that's why I'm recommending it. It's the upside potential relative to the downside risk and I think it's a enormous opportunity, especially when you get sell-offs like we got on Friday on good fundamental news.
It'd be one thing if gold and silver and the mining stocks went down because there was actually bad news for gold and silver. No. They actually got great news. You couldn't have asked for any better news for gold and silver. I mean, it's lousy for the US economy. It's lousy for the consumer. It should be lousy for the stock market, but investors haven't figured that part out yet.
But, you know, you guys don't have to figure it out because I already explained it. And so, you can take advantage of it by buying. By the way, I know, you know, there's some Bitcoiners that watch this and think, "Wow, Bitcoin held up better than gold." Well, Bitcoin was down 3% today, so not quite.
And on the week, Bitcoin was down 2.2%, which is not as bad as gold. But, year-to-date, while gold and silver are still positive about 5%, Bitcoin is down 12.5%. So, Bitcoin is having a lousy 2026 after having an awful 2025. But, you ain't seen nothing yet. I think the back half of 2026 is going to be a lot uh worse for Bitcoin and other crypto than the front half.
But, I also I think that's when gold could really But, I think that Bitcoin and tech stocks, and in fact, the main thing that's been holding up Bitcoin is the tech stocks in the AI bubble. But, a lot of air should come out of that bubble because the bond market should prick it. Yes, we haven't had a big reaction yet to a 5.2% um 30-year at a 4.59%, almost 4.6% 10-year.
But, as we keep rising and we put more and more distance between 4.5 on the 10 and 5 on the 30, at some point, that is going to prick this bubble and the air is going to come gushing out not just of uh AI stocks, but of crypto and Bitcoin because those bubbles are intertwined. They're all part of the same speculative mania and really being fueled in Bitcoin by MicroStrategy or Strategy, excuse me.
Uh but, that's also going to blow up and their whole Ponzi scheme called stretch may be uh the prick the pin that pricks that bubble, uh which is part of the overall Bitcoin bubble that in large part is being driven uh by the leverage buying of uh Michael Saylor on the part of Strategy. But, anyway, uh that's it for today's uh SchiffGold Market Wrap.
Again, go to the website. You can see the address above my shoulder, uh schiffgold.com. Take advantage today, Saturday, Sunday, um you know, almost 15% off yesterday's high in silver. You got to love that. Uh, opportunity to buy. It's still a beautiful looking chart, massive breakout. Looks to me like we're headed much higher.
Gold is very solid in here. You know, it's almost back down to 4,500, not quite, but that's over $1,000 off the February high. I would be taking advantage of that. And tell your friends. You know, if you've got friends that don't own any gold and silver, now's the time to get them on board. Let them also take advantage.
Lot of people, you know, may see those declines and get scared out of the market. Oh, I thought gold was supposed to be a safe haven. Nothing's a safe haven every single day. But gold and silver are safe havens. The increased volatility that we're seeing now is a function of the breakout. This is a consolidation with big volatility following major technical breakouts.
The most likely resolution to this patterns is a resumption of the uptrend that preceded them to new highs. And so, before we make new highs, back up the truck and load up.
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