저자: HowardMarks—영상내언급기준,소속표기는'OakleyCapital'로오기된것으로보임 · 외국인
요약 보기
하워드 막스는 관세로 인해 수십 년간 이어진 자유무역·세계화 체제가 흔들리고 있다고 진단한다. 이로 인해 물가 상승, 자산가격 조정 장기화(U자형 회복 전망), 미국 달러의 기축통화 지위 위험이 제기된다. 미국 재정적자(부채 약 35조 달러)가 신뢰 문제로 번질 수 있다는 우려도 언급된다. 그는 주식이 할인된 우량주에 관심을 보이나 올인은 피하고, 약 8% 수익률의 신용투자를 선호한다. 미국은 여전히 최고의 투자처이나 과거만큼 매력적이지는 않다고 평가한다. 발언에 따르면 '단기 신호'보다는 장기적 불확실성 강조가 핵심이다.
다듬은 글
It's not what you buy, it's what you pay. And success in investing doesn't come from buying good things, but from buying things well. And if you don't know the difference, you're in the wrong business. If you had a great foresight, you could have said in in 2019, I think there's going to be a pandemic.
I'm going to get out. In 2021, you could have said, I think that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I'm going to get out. In 22, you could have said, I think Hamas will attack Israel. I'm going to get out. This is the biggest change in the environment that I've seen probably in my career. Sounds like a dystopian movie, right?
Tariffs are threatening to undo all of that. Howard Mark's warning is a wakeup call. Imagine a world where the prices of your favorite gadgets skyrocket. The stock market comes the chaos like it is now. The US dollar's global dominance is at the risk thanks to tariffs. In the recent Bloomberg interview, Markx warned that tariffs are changing everything.
So, what does this mean for the economy and for you? Stick around and let's break this down. First, let's talk about the man behind the warning. Howard Marx is the co-chairman of the Oakley Capital, powerhouse in the investment world. This guy has a track record which is very, very, very hard to ignore.
Why? Because he's the one who predicted the com bubble in 2000. He's the one who predicted the great recession in 2008. He's the one who predicted COVID market bubble in 2021. When Harvard Mark speaks, the financial world listens. And on April 7th, 2025, he dropped a bombshell interview on Bloomberg that got me, especially me, even everyone, talking about this.
This is the biggest change in the environment that I've seen probably in my career. uh you know we went we've gone from uh free trade and or world trade and globalization uh to this uh system which uh implies uh significant restrictions on trade in every direction. I know you all know about tariffs simple in a simple language they are taxes on the imported goods goods coming in from the border that's when it get taxed think of them as a fee the US government charges on the stuff coming from the other countries like steel aluminium even your iPhone or iPhone components you talk about your headsets everything back in February 2025 President Trump reinstated a t the United States will implement reciprocal tariffs on other nations including a 25% tax on steel and aluminium closing even exemptions for countries like Canada, Mexico.
These are the neighboring countries. Even the exemptions for them are gone. Just think why he did it. The goal here is to protect American industries. Here is the catch. These tariffs are shaking up the global economy in the ways we haven't seen in decades. After the World War II, the world made a deliberate choice.
Countries would work together, not against each other. This was called globalization. Every country, for example, does some things better and worse. And worldwide welfare is maximized when every country does the things it does best and cheapest and then sells them to the countries that need them, which do other things and sell them to other people.
That's how trade works. And uh well, I don't know if it's politically correct, but the good news is that the Italians make the pasta and the Swiss make the watches. But if we stop world trade and and the Swiss have to make their own pasta and the Italians have to make their own watches, the world will probably be well maybe arguably people in both countries will be a little worse off.
That's what we're talking about here. Idea was very simple. Make nations so interconnected through trade that another global war would be unthinkable. For 80 years, this system worked like a charm. Global trade become the biggest driver of prosperity, lifting economies worldwide. The US especially benefited shifting from manufacturing economy to service-based ones.
Instead of making iPhones for dollar one an hour, we outsourced that to countries like China and India and focused on high value industries like technology and finance. Markx points out that global trade slashed the prices of goods like TVs and cars are 40% cheaper even as the US dollar lost 75% of its value since the war.
But now tariffs are threatening to undo all of that. So what happens if we turn back the clock on globalization? First inflation comes up. Markx warns that without cheap imports cost of goods will skyrocket. Imagine paying more for everything, your phone, your car, even your groceries. Second, we are entering what Markx calls a time of dislocation.
It's it's a time of dislocation. Everybody has to judge for themselves whether the the reduction in asset prices so far is right, inadequate or excessive. If it's excessive, you should jump in with both feet. If it's inadequate, you should wait until things adjust further. Um, and it's impossible to make that judgment qualitatively.
You That's fancy way of saying nobody knows what's going to happen next. There is no historical data to guide you because we haven't seen a shift like this happening in our lifetimes. In my view, this tariff walls can either break everything or the tariff walls either will break down from every country.
And here's the scariest part. Mark says the US dollar could lose its status as the world reserve currency. Uh well uh uh the worst thing about investing in the United States for many years has been our fiscal situation, our deficits and debts. And the US has behaved like somebody who has a golden credit card where there's no credit limit and the bill never comes.
So of course you can spend more than you make. And that's and if somebody has a golden credit card, uh well what would you do? Well, you might buy a nice car, but what the hell? You might as well buy all the cars because the bill's not going to come. And that's the way we've behaved. uh and and that's the way Washington has spent money.
But can the events of the recent days change that? Can they cause there to be a credit limit? Can they cause a bill to be presented at some point in time? And if the answer to either or both of those questions is yes, that's a real risk. If people don't like the dollar, don't like investing in the United States, uh don't want to hold an unlimited number of treasuries, if we just make people mad and say the US is still a great credit, but I don't want to hold their debts because look how they're treating me, the fiscal situation will be very complicated.
And if that happens, the US government massive debt somewhere around 35 trillion on as of 2025, it will become a real problem. It is not just numbers on paper. It is the debt of us. Despite the doom and gloom, Howard Marx isn't telling you to run for the hills. In fact, he sees a chance to invest. With stock price dropping, shares of good companies, very good giants, and financial firms are on sale.
But here's the key. You've got to be very careful. Mark says this isn't the time to bet the house. Instead, he is leaning toward credit investments where yields are nearly 8% offering a safer bet than stocks right now. Marks still believe us is the best place to invest, not the first best anymore. It is the second best.
It's I I think it's probably still the best place, but it's less best than it used to be. just not as great as it used to be. His advice if you are in it for a long term for a long haul, start looking at those discounted stocks, but don't go all in. The market could get rockier before it gets better.
This is not a V-shaped recovery. This is going to be a U in my view. Howard Mark's warning is a wakeup call. Tariffs could change the global economy as we know it. It will bring higher prices, more uncertaintity, and risks to the US dollar. But they are also opening doors for smart investors who can navigate the storm.
In my view, and based upon his theories, this isn't over yet. If you found this video helpful, give it a thumbs up. Subscribe for more financial insights and follow me on Ax Infinity Anand for all the latest updates.
Comments 0