저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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결론: 중국 코로나 재확산 우려와 미국 부채한도 협상 리스크가 겹쳐 단기 변동성이 커질 수 있으니 성급한 매도보다 상황을 지켜보는 것이 낫다는 취지다. 중국 코로나 재확산 우려: 중국에서 하루 최대 5천만 명 감염이 나올 수 있다는 말이 있고, 이 충격으로 프리포트맥모란, 중국 관련 종목이 하락했다. 카지노주(마카오 노출)는 이를 선반영하듯 움직이며, 소비 심리 훼손 가능성도 우려 대상이다. 미국 부채한도 협상: 2011년 부채한도 위기 때처럼 협상이 막판까지 끌리며 시장이 계속 악화되는 흐름이 재연되고 있다. 당시 신용등급 강등과 하락이 있었지만 한 달 뒤에는 주가가 훨씬 높았다. 종목/투자 전략: 엔비디아는 실적이 좋지만 전체 시장 하락을 거스르기 어려울 수 있다고 보며, 회원에게 보유 유지 입장을 재확인했다. 캐터필러는 좋은 기업이지만 부채 협상 해결 전 4~5일 더 하락할 수 있어 매수 시점을 늦추라고 조언했다. 리얼티인컴은 안정적인 월배당 기업으로 소개됐다. 출연자/게스트: 캐든 쉐어스(주가 5년간 382% 상승)의 CEO 인터뷰, PG&E 반등 점검, 스노우플레이크 실적 이후 주가 점검이 예고됐다.
다듬은 글
a special CEO Castle Summit edition of Mad Money welcome to Great America I'll be with my friends I'm just trying to help you make some money my job right now we're playing out so many horrible scenarios that I thought were over with and done with but we weren't which is why the Dow tumbled 256 points today s b lost 0.73 and the NASDAQ to climbed 0.61 I worry that this awful sense of deja vu is going to drive people out of the market once again I'm talking about the rabbit hole of 2011 and the great coveted wave of 2020 to 2021.
the first one is noisieri but also obvious given the 2020 2011 was when we had that last true debt ceiling crisis it was only natural to worry that history from 2011 would repeat itself meaning that the situation we get a whole lot uglier before it got good it's certainly getting earlier second one covid the idea that it could become making a comeback and in huge numbers some say as many as 50 million infections in a week in yes China has created a level of shock that's sending everything related to China down from Freeport McMoRan the giant copper producer Starbucks where they're opening a new Chinese store every nine hours of course we can deal with covet we have lots of ways to make it less lethal here in America it's almost become a rear guard action but covet here and covet in China are two very different things there's an awful lot of mystery about this new variant in China right now we don't know if the government will shut things down apparently they're saying they won't we don't know if travel will be banned or restricted or the casino stocks with exposure to Macau are trading like it's going to happen and we don't know if the psyche of the recently Chinese consumer will be impacted I was worried when I saw this notice now like Bob of the Amazon of China but that was before this new coveted wave jeez the worst part is that almost nobody even knows about this new covered wave I talked to dozens of people out here at this terrific conference and I seem to be the only one who was even aware of it that's kind of like back in February 2020 when I came on air and people looked at me as if I had five heads when I said an epidemic was coming as it keeps spreading through China and possibly Beyond there'll be a sense of discouragement and disgust the two D's that make people want to sell sell sell their stocks all right let's talk Washington when you rewind the tape to look at the day-to-day action from the last debt ceiling negotiations in 2011 it's not good we had a lot of optimism about a deal back then we figured nothing could really go wrong with the debt limit because they'd never really gone wrong before the debt ceiling was always a formality the idea that a bunch of elected officials could hate each other so much they'd be willing to destroy the government's credit rating just to prove a point it seemed insane the only Point they'd really be making is that America has run by a bunch of morons in the full faith and credit of the United States government isn't worth the papers put it on but they almost let it happen even though we only got a deal and averted the worst case scenario the stand-up was enough to make the standard and Poor's company downgrade our government debt and was just so embarrassing it cost a lot of selling a lot of worry this time repeating all the same mistakes except almost nobody's optimistic because we know how bad it can get we're no longer denied about the level of dysfunction in American politics we're much more cynical and jaded these days now I spent the last couple days reading the archives in 2011 and several things jumped out at me first we got to a point similar to where we are now when we sense that things were really going off the rails that was about a dozen trading days before they came to a deal kind of where we ended last week this time around during each one of these trading days hope would be kindled at some point and then exhausted often several times within the same session this time the rhetoric mostly about how people might not get their Social Security checks or some treasury auctions might fail but last time we focused on the ratings agencies as they leaked that the country would lose his top credit rating if something wasn't done and done quickly there was tremendous fear that it downgraded treasury would would be a sole treasury an interest rates would shoot dramatically higher at the same time there was a widespread belief that our economy would go into recession the moment the government defaulted and it would get worse every single day there was no agreement now both yesterday and today were reminiscent of the period in 2011 because you'd have a couple of stocks a couple of companies do well see you'd see something like we had a Palo alto's networks on the same pnw which reported an amazing number and then it stocks had a big but there'd be very little pin action for even the other cyber security companies even off a classic roll you'd see a great quarter like we just got from Toll Brothers but because there's it's a home builder that industry's in the crosshairs of the Dead City morass it rallies but much less than it would have otherwise you know what I actually wonder if we won't see the same one-off action in the stock of the amazing Nvidia the incredible AI Kingpin which crushed the numbers better than any large capitalization company I can recall in 2023 when it reporter tonight I tell club members CNBC investing club members they know it Nvidia own it don't trade it and honor I hold only for apple and Nvidia and I reiterate that stance right now but will the huge move-in Nvidia be able to Buck the budget undertow not if things get real nasty back then as we got closer and closer to the default date where the government wouldn't be able to send out the checks a disputed date by the way because Republicans kept saying we have more time than the Democrats did the markets just grew uglier and uglier and uglier like then this Market's choosing to take apart the Industrials and the financials but as the market started to really get hit as the game of chicken and Washington got ever more dire Washington took everything down in the end today on my morning meeting home stretch shows with Jeff marks the ones you can watch if you join the CNBC investing Club I actually pondered whether given what we know about 2011.
it would actually be possible for some members to sell out and then get back in avoid some declines particularly in the Industrials and the financials rather than just keep taking the door Beat It honestly if somebody used to trade for a living many many years ago I can see how you might want to do that we just aren't oversold enough to bounce in the traditional Market Edge oscillator I use to measure if there's too much selling pressure the complacency is actually pretty strange given the 2011 script I gotta admit plus right about at this point the 2011 debt ceiling debacle we started hearing from journalists with dubious sources that they're really only eight more days worth of basically hidden cash that could tide us over that's what made things try going back then even as we did ultimately reach a deal on the eve of the original X day I would hate to advise you to sell and then buy back later we don't know if you'll be able to get back in after the all clear is sounded real Nimble people can probably Dodge maybe several percentage points maybe five six seven maybe more but if you aren't Nimble or don't want to take those gains I say get ready for your politicians to lose you some more money until this is over bottom line they hurt you then they aren't done hurting you now but unless you trade full-time it's very hard to get out and get back in and early enough for it to make a difference which means most of us just need to take the pain recognizing that a month after the debt catastrophe was averted in 2011 we were much higher and made a ton of money together Dustin in Oklahoma dusted oh yeah Jimmy Choo how you doing sir all right the chill man's doing well how about you I'm doing fantastic it's good to talk to you again sir thank you my question my question tonight is about one of our club names I uh I'm one of our Charter Club members and my portfolio leaves a little bit more Tech heavy which has been really fantastic this year but I've been considering a name uh in our portfolio for quite some time it's an industrial growth and just don't know when a good time to pull the trigger with the debt ceiling right now and wanted to know your thoughts on when to pull a trigger on caterpillar all right I I think caterpillar is terrific the way the debt talks to God was hoping and you shouldn't hope shouldn't be part of the equation that caterpillar would begin to rally on all the stimulus money but at the same time I thought the debt uh I didn't think it would get this bad I think you got at least four or five more days for it you could see caterpillar lower and I don't want you to get in uh and then say why did chill say buy it here when he knew it's going lower so I do think the cat could have more downside and then you then you will have to buy some I'm going to Ian in Illinois Ian Jimbo how you doing my friend I'm getting hot how are you yeah I hear you it's beautiful in Chicago today so I'll take it uh but Hey listen all right what's happening yeah I am 31 years old and I'm trying to balance my portfolio with some riskier upside plays as well as some cash flow producing Investments and one of my favorite cash flow stocks is realty income so I'm looking for your thoughts on the health of the company where it might be headed realty income letter O is fantastic it's a terrific company stood the test of time I think you get those monthly dividend checks I think you are one I think you got horses all right if you don't want to sell in the face of the debt ceiling deadline then get ready for some more volatility because it might get ugly in Washington man tonight Caden Shares are up a whopping 382 percent over the past five years while the s p is only up 50.
I'm talking with the CEO about the company's app performance and I'm checking up on a comeback story that we've been watching closely in the utility space PG e to see if it's recent pullback could be a good opportunity for investors and snowflake shares Melody after earnings I got the exclusive of the CEO in this special edition of mad money from the CNBC CEO Summit continues
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