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well isn't that amazing that uh we seem to have made the impossible can you actually think of these people uh not just sitting at the same table with us here right but getting in one room it's amazing it's amazing isn't it I would like to give Applause to our panelists for it it's a very special occasion and believe me there's been a lot of effort and time and energy that that's been put into into making this happen it's not something you do on an ordinary basis on a daily basis and thank you very much indeed uh for having come here and I'm very pleased to to host to here okay if I may kindly suggest uh each and every of you obviously I mean people people know you very well indeed but how would you briefly introduce yourself and Define highlight your your your major achievements today can I start with Professor Rini please um well um I'm an economist you're a communist an economist an economist don't say that in Great Britain okay Brock Pierce um a janitor a plumber a carpenter oh that's very unusual already isn't it so I'm Bobby Lee I got into Bitcoin in 2011 prev previously co-founded and CEO of BTC China and btcc now I just started my new startup this year called ballet we make uh cryptocurrency physical wallets uh for the for the whole world so so far you're the only one who's doing anything serious here is that correct yeah yeah yeah I know you you ruined it for everyone because I you know wrote the Satoshi white paper I'm Tom vas by the way so I have a we have a booth in the back please come visit us ballet wallets Craig so I'm the cause of all this and I'm an eternal student and no I'm sorry but uh you didn't write it and I'm sorry tone you don't even understand it you have this concept that you can't take cryptocurrency this whole idea that miners vote to change protocol the white paper doesn't say that the last line says that miners enforce the rules as an economist you what rules kind of suggest uh we just can to to a very short that that was by way of introdu introducing yourself is that correct okay yes just let's keep it concise okay we'll come to the points don't worry don't don't jump the I've never been called concise don't worry okay right now that the panelists have been introduced uh I'm more than happy to to uh to ask some some some more more funny questions really now uh starting with you Professor Rini uh what do you think is so wrong about the the world economy and why should we we all be so scared of the of the upcoming recession uh I know we're going off a bit of a tangent here because but up presumably we have the one of the most authoritative experts in macroeconomics to date and uh really be pleased if uh Nel could share his views on this first and foremost so why is it the scary time for the world economy uh well there are a bunch of tail risk in the global economy the first one is the risk of a trade currency technology and cold war between us and China in last 40 years have been a period of global integration more trading Goods Services Capital labor technology data information we could be at the beginning of a process of what I call De globalization or balkanization of the global economy fragmentation decoupling splinternet and that's a permanent negative Supply shock uh here in the UK there is a risk of hard brexit that will lead to a recession not just in UK but also in my view in the rest of Europe uh there are geopolitical tensions in the Middle East if there was a a war between us and Iran all would go above $100 per barel that will tip the global economy in a recession like it happened after yam kipur war in 73 Iranian Revolution in 79 or the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and there is broadly a broader issue there is a I would say pop populist backlash against trade migration globalization even technological innovations becoming Capital intensive skill buyers and labor saving and we've seen it but in advanced economies and emerging market so so the lots of things that are potentially wrong in the global economy in brief okay Brock do you have anything to to add to that or do you think it's all good and well in the world economy or you're not concerned oh no I'm I'm very concerned and I I tend to uh uh I agree with noral 90% or more of the time um I'm one of the the the few people in crypto that agrees with most of what he has to say and clearly as as we look at the global economy uh yeah know it's uh uh the world's rather scary right now uh especially I mean that the China being the the primary driver of this you know us China and what can be triggered and there's a hundred things right now that could uh go wrong could go wrong and you know it's not one thing and so I'm very very nervous about the sort of Outlook I'm a big advocate for gold as a result of that you know I'm a a big advocate of you know cryptocurrency which is still not ready for prime time right it's not ready for the average consumer um but uh you know I still have great hope that uh uh that we'll continue to innovate and make these things easier to use for call it the average uh consumer but um you know I'm a big fan of hard assets right now uh I'm not not a not a fan of uh uh stocks bonds uh I mean I'm I'm very nervous uh if I make the go back to 2008 allegedly the the year which actually propagated gave birth to to bitcoin and cryptocurrencies uh what were the instr what were the tools uh that you were using Nal that you were when when you were predicting if I may say so the the financial crisis of 200 dat did it happen on the spur of the moment I don't think it it has there has been some really deep profound thinking behind it uh so what is it that how how did you managed to figure it out back then well you know I I spent the last 30 years of my academic career and also I did work during the Clinton White House doing policy work studying a phenomenon of financial crisis you know there are various aspects of them there are currency crises there are balance of payment crisis there are Soven debt crisis there are corporate debt crisis there are banking crisis there can be also household debt crisis or any combination of them and usually they are the result of a buildup of asset and credit bubble that reach then a pick point and then there is a boom and a bubble that turns into a bust and a crash so you know anybody who has done work either theoretically or empirically or policy about them for the last few decades sees them coming you know my good friend Nim talb wrote a book about black swans and he thinks of Crisis being Black Swan but uh in my book about crisis economics I refer them as being white Swans in which sense uh he thinks of it as being like a earthquake or a tornado cannot be predicted while in my view it's more like a hurricane that is a buildup of financial economic and policy vulnerability eventually reach a point of of a crisis so they're more predictable than stuff that is like a earthquake cannot be predicted so in other words uh predicting World f fincial crisis is is is easy peasy for you is that correct in real it's it's never easy to get the timing right but you see a buildup of vulnerabilities eventually reach what people refer to as a Minsky moment so those who have been studying them for a long time have the tools to understand why they're coming they're not just random events they're not just a distribution that fat tales and then something happens like a tornado or an earthquake so in other words the global economy is now rickety to say the least is that there have been financial crisis you know every few years both in advanced economies and Emerging Markets well the the the the the title of this panel that i' suggested uh runs as what are the the flaws of the Global Financial system as we have it today so it's kind of provocative really because there's no way that you would deny any one of you sitting here that would they would deny that that there is a there are concerns and there are growing concerns about that and no one is going to sit pretty so uh Bobby if I were to ask you how would you define what what what are the most uh The crucial flaws of the centralized Global Financial system as we're see today yeah and then we'll start uh perhaps discussing as to how how we can possibly try and overcome that by by introducing the blockchain technology and perhaps crypto uh but what are the major problems as you see today simp the biggest problem today is the money system that we use money money is used in all parts of society all over the world in every economy and the money we use today is not just in the paper form or the coin form but also the digital money that circulates in Banks and transfers and so on that money system today is no longer asset-backed it's no longer asset based rather we're using a debt based money system that can be inflated and printed and increased with without our sort of cooperation central banks around the world will unilaterally decide to increase the money supply in all these countries and they do it in the name of to prevent you know the Great Recession the Great Depression and so on but the reality is by having that control the central Bankers all over the world they have tremendous power over the people today none none of us here are enslaved I don't see any Shackles on any of your hands but if I tell you that your work and your labor over the last three years and three months or the last 30 years can be arbitrarily taxed by the government where they can just take out your earnings through the use of inflation and money printing then we might as well be working for the for the guy for the for the government so that's the problem the problem is today we're invisibly Shackled to the system because our work so we all go to work whether it's today tomorrow this year this month if the wages for that work can be arbitrarily taken away from us without our permission as humans as citizens of the country then I think that's a big problem and that's the problem with today's debt-based money system CH would you substantiate that argument yeah no I completely agree with Bobby that the biggest problem is the easy money printing of uh governments all around the world and uh Bitcoin fixes that and but just Bitcoin not shitcoins not ethereum not other not other cryptocurrencies not fake Bitcoin Forks fake Bitcoins coming off of forks like ATC uh like all the other ones um uh Bitcoin helps to fix that and uh uh so that's what I'm looking forward to um as far as black swans that noral mentioned yes they're they're there and they come up and they come up way more often than statistics are telling you that they should come up but if your investment strategy is to invest in a Black Swan I can tell you firsthand you are going to lose all of your money um you're supposed to invest in things that are trending and then hedge that uh and there's lots of financial tools to hedge against black swans don't get overleveraged and don't you know assume you're right um so you can't uh you can't predict the black swans you can try you'll be wrong on your timing unless you get lucky uh and you can't invest for that but what you can do is opt out of the current Financial system through Bitcoin and protect yourself in that way against those black sads Craig if I might kindly add something to that so Bitcoin was really developed to look at Minsky's instability hypothesis and asymetry in information Bitcoin is a tracing system one of the aspects if you read man's idea of money is money needs to be traceable this is not an aspect that a lot of Cipher punks run around and and admit yes but money requires traceability this goes right back to the 17th century and it includes cash and all the rest now the key aspects of the financial crisis that no one really talks about actually come from information asymmetry in Banks they have a monopoly on information they get to own our information and they capture what we can do so we can't easily move between Banks we can't share information between organizations the information asymmetry extends to CD DS and L
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