저자: 에세이삼촌 · 한국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스의 저서 내용을 소개하며 미국 경제가 대규모 버블 위에 있고 과거 버블 붕괴 패턴이 반복될 수 있다고 경고하는 영상이다. 핵심 주장: 역사는 같은 방식으로 정확히 반복되지는 않지만 형태만 바꿔 반복되며, 1990년대 말~2000년 미국 주택·금융 버블, 1920년대 호황 후 1929년 붕괴, 1980년대 후반 일본 버블 붕괴 등을 예로 든다. 미국 경제 경고: 미국 경제는 거대한 버블 위에 세워져 있다는 경고이며, 2008년 금융위기 이후 미국 주가가 10년 이상 장기 상승해 왔다는 차트를 근거로 제시한다. 다만 추가 상승 가능성도 인정한다. 미국 버블 경제의 원인 세 가지: ① 미국 국가부채가 세계 1위로 막대하다는 점 ② 미·중 무역 전쟁이 길어질수록 미국에 불리하다는 점 ③ 트럼프 대통령의 정치적 전략이 시장 변수가 된다는 점. 출연자 전망: 짐 로저스는 싱가포르 이주 후 아시아 투자에 집중하고 있으며, 책에서 한국·일본·중국 등 동아시아 경제 전망을 주로 다룬다. 영상 진행자는 짐 로저스가 아는 것을 모두 말하지는 않는 듯하다는 인상을 전한다. 영상 말미에 진행자는 10분짜리 강의로는 내용이 부족하며, 시청자가 직접 책을 읽고 판단할 것을 권한다고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
Jim Rogers once said that he wanted future generations to call him a historian rather than an investor. And indeed, his books feature many techniques befitting a historian throughout. In particular, while discussing economics, he frequently presents a pattern-based perspective on how past history repeats itself.
I have recently been introducing his book, *The World's Most Exciting Country*, on this Jim Rogers source. Let me read you a passage from his book for a moment. It is often said that history repeats itself, but it does not repeat exactly the same way. It continues to repeat, changing its form slightly as if riding a rhythm.
For example, from the late 1990s to 2000, a bubble formed in the United States, causing asset values to skyrocket, centered on housing and finance. Those working in the real estate industry said, "Sure enough, this time it will be even higher." Around that time, a Japanese man who owned a large amount of real estate flew to New York without delay to buy property.
As housing prices continued to rise uncontrollably, he expected them to go up even further. As the entire United States enjoyed a boom fueled by that bubble economy, economic newspapers Even the Wall Street Journal reported that the economy had entered a new era, going so far as to coin the new term "New Economy." However, after the bubble burst, the term " New Economy" vanished from every page—isn't that exactly what happened?
This is because what the U.S. experienced was not a "New Economy" or anything of the sort, but simply a "Bubble Economy." Anyone who has studied history would have known that it was showing the same rat-water pattern as the previous bubble collapse. Yet, he points out that the tremendous economic boom of the 1920s, followed by the collapse in late 1929, is a historical example of the law being violated.
He also mentions the Japanese bubble collapse, which we know well; there was a massive bubble starting in the late 1980s, and we are all too aware that the law was finally put into effect starting in 1990. There are countless examples of such major bubble collapses. However, the important point is that the water hose is warning us that the current U.S.
economy is built up with a massive bubble. Ah, the 2008 U.S.-originated financial crisis. Please look at the subsequent rise in US stock prices. If you examine the chart and look at the long-term trend of over 10 years, you will see a tremendous rise. Of course, it could rise further. However, the point is that they are asserting this is a punishment for the extremely unstable China.
In that sense, it is not just the US stock market; we can surmise that the global stock markets, such as those in Europe and Japan, are also in a state of tremendous turmoil. Specifically, while warning about the US bubble economy, Joseon mentions about three causes. The first is US national debt. The US national debt is enormous, far more massive than we imagine.
If we rank the world based on national debt, the US is by far number one, followed by Japan in second place and China in third. It is true that we are not performing well against such a dominant force. The second reason cited is the war in the US Midwest. They are saying that the longer this US-China war drags on, the more disadvantageous it will inevitably be for the US.
The third is President Trump's political... It mentions that it is a strategic move and becomes a political variable. Regarding the specific details, I suggest that you read the book yourself—titled "The World's Most Provocative Country"—for yourself. I do not think it is appropriate for me to go into such minute details here.
Furthermore, if there is one point of regret, it is that while reading this book, the countries Jim focuses on are Korea, Japan, and China. It mainly deals with the current economic situation and future predictions of East Asia, and does not mention the U.S. or Europe in such detail. However, since there are passages throughout that present very important views, and that is why I am currently discussing the U.S.
economy, I cannot guarantee that you will find clear-cut or detailed answers in this book. From my perspective, I got the strong impression that Jim is holding back, even though he has a lot he wants to say and is capable of saying it. This is just my personal opinion after reading the book; perhaps, from Jim’s standpoint, regarding this part...
Considering that it is an investment based on life experience, wouldn't you get the hunch that, given the amazing economic insights accumulated over the years and the various perspectives, the US economy is clearly going to explode within a few years? That is why I felt that we should respect that. I am well aware that there are many people who criticize Jim Sell.
However, we are giants who know that these two individuals are great investors; they moved directly from the US to Singapore about 10 years ago—we viewed them as mere directors—established a foothold in Asia, and are focusing on Asian investment. So, I thought that there are many areas where we need to find and infer for ourselves regarding the many gaps that cannot be fully grasped through books.
While doing these YouTube broadcasts, I feel quite strongly that there are many people who make arbitrary interpretations from their own perspectives. There are some who fail to realize that the content I cover in this broadcast is merely a very small part of the whole picture. I don't think so. How could I possibly cover everything or mention every specific person within this short 10-minute video or brief lecture?
It certainly is n't enough. I am well aware that it is lacking. The reason I am saying this is for you to take it into account and utilize it in a way that helps you with your own economic perspectives and investments. I hope you do not just blindly criticize or view it solely negatively. So, naturally, I will wrap up here for today. That's all for now. Thank you.
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