저자: AngeloZeno · 외국인
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브로드컴 1분기 실적은 EPS 1.10달러 상회, 매출 19.6억달러 수준이나 반도체 솔루션 매출 73.9억달러가 기대 77억달러에 미달해 시간외 약세. 연간 매출 500억달러 가이던스는 기존 전망과 유사. AI 매출 비중은 작년 15%에서 최근 20%대로 상승, 올해 25% 이상 가능성 언급. 네트워킹(이더넷 스위치)은 거의 두 배 성장 전망, 커스텀 실리콘(구글 중심) 30~40억달러 규모. VMware 인수 후 비용절감으로 마진 개선 기대. 소프트웨어 매출은 낮은 한 자릿수에서 중·저 두 자릿수 성장 전망.
다듬은 글
broadcom the company's first quarter results hitting the wire and the shares down a quick 1.8% here let's run through the numbers here first quarter adjusted earnings per share beating estimates $110.99 first quarter adjusted net revenue at $1.96 billion it looks like semiconductor Solutions revenue is what the Miss is here that came in at 7.39 billion analysts were looking for $ 7.7 billion so as far as I can tell that's what's responsible here I'm also seeing the company sees its full year Revenue at about $50 billion so that's something we'll be watching as well yeah stocks down about 3 and a half% now again like marll julo broadcom this was just another monster it was up about 120% over the last TW 12 months uh some comments here also from co Haw tan he's talking about uh drivers of Revenue growth he calls out VMware of course they closed that big acquisition uh finally late last year also remember part of the reason the stock has surged investors seeing this as an AI play and htan talks about that they're networking products and AI data centers talks about custom AI accelerators from the hyperscalers to the big cloud Giants again though at least initially here stock down the after hours you know and and just one more thing I wanted to mention as we talk about marll as we talk about broadcom there has been an enormous Surge and options activity around all the semiconductor makers so when you see moves also post earnings you got to think that options plays are a part of that let's talk more about these broadcom numbers let's get to seef ra research senior Equity analyst Angelo Zeno so Angelo I know these numbers just came out but just give us sort of your first blush take here yeah I mean listen overall it it came kind of in line with expectations I mean slightly ahead of expectations um if you really think about it for the the January quarter but as far as kind of the guidance that they provided um they they essentially last quarter interestingly kind of moved from a quarterly guidance to an annual guidance and if you kind of look at what they provided here for the full fiscal year 2024 again it was pretty much matching what they said three months ago if you kind of look at um you guys pointed out some of the incredible moves we've seen in some of these kind of semiconductor AI related names and both kind of broadcom moreel kind of running into the numbers this quarter um it's not necessarily a surprise that you kind of um aren't getting much of a reaction or kind of some downside here um on the names uh you know given the kind of inline expectations out there and Angelo you know interesting of course you know part of the reason this stock has surged the way it did investors see it as you know another smart AI play and and you've heard the company they're obviously um getting much more bullish about the opportunities they see in AI do you share that bullishness Angelo no we do I mean and if you kind of look in calendar 2023 there were really two names out there on the semiconductor side of things that really did see some significant revenue on the AI side of things that was of course Nvidia and the other name was broadcom and you saw kind of the the reaction or the move in the stock prices last year from those names as you kind of going into 2024 here um that that the same story that you saw in 23 for broadc comp continues to build here this year in terms of um really on the networking side of things being driven by two factors one kind of their their ether switcher business out there which is going to essentially nearly double this year and then you kind of got that custom silicon business which is largely uh alphabet if you think about it and that's probably going to grow at least from a you know a three to four billion dollar type of run rate here this year so there is a lot of growth attached to that AI story for broadcom I think the other interesting thing of course is what's going on on the software side of things if you look at the multiple for broadcom here over the last three four months you've absolutely seen a reating here differently than what you've seen you know from the reasoning from nvidia's move which is really all kind of earnings beats um on that side of things but broadcom it's more along the lines of now being a 6040 split um in terms of semis um and software and kind of that visibility that you have over the next couple years and greater kind of acceleration on the software side of things is kind of I think attributing to the the higher multiple for this name and Angelo um hawana said that um AI the general spending in AI could account for about a quarter of the company's Revenue this year anything in these results that make you think that that number is too low or Too High I mean we're not going to have color until they actually uh have their call and where they typically break down those numbers but you kind of look at the guidance that they did provide again I would think it's pretty much um everything's kind of running in line with what he previously commented on a couple of months ago if you look at the Run rate just three months ago was uh AI was running at about 20% of their revenue it was about 15% of their full fiscal year uh 2023 Revenue so that 25% number I think um should at the very least uh match expectations with potential upside to that number and Angela we'll get you out of here on this you know this is broadcom's um first quarter I I think with uh with VMware in tow here they closed that acquisition uh late last year Angelo what what is that acquisition going to mean for broadcom's business going forward yeah I think I think it's a a great acquisition for them you know again I think it it it boosts the the margin trajectory of this company I think a lot of investors are going to want to know um exactly where the the Opex number is going to look like here over the next couple of quarters um I think there was a hope that you know maybe that you know the cost cutting was going to be maybe a little bit ahead expectations because Hawk has just been absolutely exceptional in Prior Acquisitions with the cost cutting moves so we'll see what he have to he has to say on that side of things but this is all about kind of driving that margin expansion um The Cost Cuts which we expect will be about a 40% reduction from the end of last year to the end of this year um so there's going to be notable Cost Cuts and then um again it does accelerate the business in terms of um The Run rate even kind of exiting the you know this calendar year as you go into next year um we do think single digit low double digit growth for the software business now um is what to be expected where over the last couple years it's more you know has it's been more of a low single digit grow driver for this company all right stock initially here down the after hours we'll see what CEO htan has to say on the call Angelo thanks as always for joining us appreciate it great thanks for having
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