저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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연준이 9월 금리인하 시 정책 신뢰성 훼손 우려. 관세 인플레는 일회성이 아니며 서비스 물가도 높아 PCE 3%대 고착. 고용은 약하지만 10만명 수준 회복 전망. 금리 인하 시 장기금리가 오히려 오르는 2024년식 역설 가능성. S&P500 선행PE 22배, 버핏지표 사상 최고로 밸류 부담 있으나 실적 상향으로 강세장 지속 전망. 연말 S&P500 6600, 내년 7500 목표 유지. 대형 기술주(매그니피센트7) 비중 30%로 집중 지속.
다듬은 글
futures slightly lower with stocks coming off their biggest one-day gains since May. Joining us now, Ed Yardini, Ardeni research president. Uh Ed, it's good to have you on this August Monday following Jackson Hall. I know you've written a lot about it. Uh do you agree with Powell's new tone that tariffs inflationary impact will be short-lived?
It'll be temporary. Well, I think that what the tariffs have done have has kind of kept the inflation rate from getting down to 2%. inflation now seems to be stuck more like around 3%. And he may very well be right. And I think a lot of people expect that the tariff effect will be sort of a oneshot deal.
The problem is the tariffs are not a oneshot deal. For example, uh the administration's considering tariffs on furniture uh right now. So it it could be a one-shot deal that lasts se several months. But in addition to that, the services inflation rates uh are still fairly hot. Um, and so if you've got durable goods inflation going up because of tariffs and the services inflation rate still running relatively hot, the Fed's not at its 2% target.
It's at 3%. So, do you think it would be misguided then to cut 25 basis points in September? I think so. Not only because of uh the credibility on the inflation front that the Fed needs to maintain, but also because I think the economy is actually still resilient. I know that's a a very controversial and contrary point right now, especially after the payroll employment report uh for July showed uh piddling increases in May and June and then a 73,000 increase, which again is relatively low, but it is an increase and I think we're going to see an increase in the August number at the beginning of next month of a 100,000 which I think is closer to the sort of the break even uh employment uh rate that we need in order to keep the unemployment rate down at 4%.
So um yeah, I I think there's no particular rush to lower rates, but that's exactly what's changed in uh Pal's speech. Uh for many months since the beginning of the year, Pal's been saying we are in no rush to lower interest rates. And what got the market so excited about the possibility of a Fed put is that he didn't say we're in no rush.
she just said, you know, we it may be time to make some adjustment here. So, that's where the Fed is. The Fed won't listen to me, of course. They'll do what they're going to do, but there are a couple of inflation indicators and there's a payroll employment report that may change their mind. But the bond market itself doesn't seem to be too concerned uh at least in terms of its reaction on Friday to the potential pivot.
Uh what do you make of kind of the the bond vigilantes right now and their concern about the Fed's ability to fight in fight inflation if it does pop back up again? Well, you know, for all the excitement in the stock market about uh the the Fed put making a comeback in September, the body is still pretty much tracking in a in a flat range.
Uh 4.29% is last I saw. Well, I I guess you have it on your screen as 4.27. 27 uh% but uh that really isn't much of a change in the face of expectations that the Fed is back on an easing course. Uh and I would say that uh the um cautious tale is what happened last year when the Fed lowered by 100 basis points and the bond yield went up 100 basis points.
In this case, if the Fed goes ahead and uh lowers rates, uh we may find uh you know, we may all get frustrated, including the administration, that the bond yield still kind of stuck around here and the mortgage rates still staying around here as well. Either way, Ed, you you remain pretty constructive US equities.
Do I mean, it's funny to see the reaction on Friday to the potential of a cut and it was one day, but but a big jump. So, so will it affect your view either way if they cut or not? Well, it it in either case it's a bull market. The question is whether it's a a bull market that has a a meltup phase. That's kind of feels like a meltup already based on what we've seen recently, especially on on Friday.
Uh the forward PE on the S&P 500 is 22. Uh which is right up there. The Buffett ratio, which is the basically the price over the sales ratio of the S&P 500, is at an all-time record high. So valuations aren't as cheap, but earnings have been great first and second quarter earnings beat expectations significantly.
And so I think we're going to have a continuation of the bull market, but I think it's going to be earningsled. If the Fed does go ahead and lower rates uh on September 17th, I think uh uh my my my targets may be too conservative. Right now, I'm looking for 6,600 on the S&P 500 by the end of the year and 7,500 next year.
we could get those targets a lot sooner if uh the Fed does in fact deliver the uh the the the all powerful Fed put. Ed, how how balanced, if you will, you know, when you put those targets together, how balanced are they? Meaning, how much of that is the MAG 7 effectively levitating the rest of the market versus, you know, looking at small caps or other parts of these indexes?
Well, I think what was uh exciting about uh Friday is that we finally saw some uh pickup in the in the smidcaps, the small and midcap stocks. The the problem with getting excited about that is we've been seeing that for a few years. We've all been waiting for the market to broaden out and as you point out, it's been still very concentrated.
30% of the market cap of the S&P 500 is in fact still in the magnificent 7. Uh so I would say you know um 6600s 7500 next year imp I'm still thinking that the um Magnificent 7 account for 30% of the S&P 500 and that there'll be some broadening out of the market but they clearly are the leaders.
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