저자: JensenHuang · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아가 분기 실적에서 매출·이익 상회와 강한 가이던스를 발표했고, 중국 수출규제로 약 80억달러 매출 타격에도 성장. 중국 AI 시장은 연 500억달러 규모로 엔비디아 점유율이 95%에서 약 50%로 하락. 추론형 AI로 연산 수요가 급증하며 Blackwell 램프와 Ultra 전환이 순조롭다고 설명. 로봇·자율주행이 3~5년 내 성장 기회이며 소프트웨어(Omniverse 등)가 사업의 큰 축이라고 강조. 노동 부족 해소로 GDP 성장 기여 가능성 제시.
다듬은 글
Tonight we got the single most important quarter this entire earning season when Nvidia reported. There's a lot of hand ringing about this one as usual, but Nvidia delivered a huge set of numbers including a sizable top and bottom line beat healthy revenue guidance for the current quarter even after taking an $8 billion sales hit on those export controls that prevent him from doing lots of business in China.
So how they pulled it off? Let's go straight to the source with the man I call the modernday Leonardo da Vinci. Jensen Wong, the co-founder, president, CEO of Nvidia. Well, Jensen, welcome back to Mad Money. Hey, Jim. It's great to be here. All right, so let's go to uh I it's a remarkable quarter in every single way.
But you do say I'm going to go right there that China is positioned to lead globally. And you do not think that unless you can sell to China, you can necessarily lead with them. And I look at this market and I'm saying there's $50 billion up for grab. I actually think it could literally be all yours if there weren't export controls.
Am I wrong? And how much of that money would flow back to the United States if you could do the sales? Nvidia's market share in China was about 95% four years ago. It's about 50% today because of the limitations on the products that we sell. $50 billion a year market today. It's growing just like AI is growing everywhere.
Over the course of the next this four years, the president's administration, we're probably talking about a few hundred billion dollars worth of revenues to Nvidia. Probably tens of billions of dollars of taxes revenues to the country, thousands of jobs. Incredible, incredible opportunity. But more strategically, more importantly, okay, this is very important.
First of all, the China market is of course very large, but it's also the home of 50% of the world's AI researchers. The platforms that succeeds is the platform with the most developers. Just like iPhone successful because of lots of developers, Windows successful because of lots of developers, all these platforms succeed because there are a lot of developers.
China is home to 50% of the AI researchers in the world. And so we want the world to build on American technology stack. We want every developer in the world to prefer the American technology stacks. Once that happens, the tech developers develop on American technology stacks. American technology stacks will run AI the best all over the world.
And so this is that's probably the most important strategic reason to be in China because there are so many developers there and because the world is going to adopt technology from one country or another and we prefer to be in the American technologies there. Well, you know the president has a plan.
You say that he has a vision and you trust him. You say that I have to believe that you think that he has to see either see the light or has and that things that look so dire right now in China may not be as dire and there could be even as soon as next quarter more business being done than we thought after tonight.
It's hard to tell, but the most important thing is this, Jim. Our president wants America to win and we he also recognizes that that this is an important market. It's a very large market and the revenues that it could generate for United States is significant. It's just incredible. $50 billion this year.
Look, we're talking about the size of a Boeing, not a Boeing plane. Boeing the company. This is an enormous market. And uh and so I think I think the the the opportunity left behind is is quite sub substantial. Uh this is also an excellent way to to uh improve our trade deficit. It would also seem to me that there must be some people who think that they can militarize our your chips.
I can't imagine a scenario where they would decide, you know what, we're going to use Nvidia chips in our aircraft carriers. We put them in our submarines. Wouldn't that be foolhardy? We would never use Huawei chips in our in our missiles. That That's exactly right. They have plenty of chips themselves.
Obviously, we're losing market share for to to uh chips that are that are built locally. Uh, China is an extraordinary manufacturing capability and they are doubling the number of chips that they're building every single year. Uh, the technology that's being offered by Huawei is extraordinary. This is an extraordinary technology company and so we have plenty of competition there.
Chinese government has plenty of choices with indigenous technology which is their preference and so so I think that the idea that any anyhow go ahead but isn't it true that the president has helped you immeasurably the huge business that you're doing in the Gulf States when you see him he obviously is many ways Nvidia's number one salesperson is it asking too much to be able to say and not only that Mr.
President, I also want you to open China. Well, we're going to keep our dialogue going with with the administration and um uh I believe that that what we're what we're explaining is ground truth and we understand the technology best and we understand how computing works. We understand how AI works and we've been in China for 30 years and and so this is an area that we have a lot of a lot of expertise and we're going to continue to share that.
But let me tell you let me tell you this, Jim. Listen, the the the president laid out a bold vision for United States, for America to re-industrialize the onshore manufacturing so that we can have a more resilient supply chain so that we can create jobs locally very importantly so that we become great at manufacturing again at a time when manufacturing isn't about labor but it's about labor only but it's about technology and so that vision is incredible.
This is going to be this is this initiative by the president is likely going to set the United States up for a century for this century to come. This is going to be a very big deal. I also think that he was when he rescended when he rescended the AI diffusion rule. Um it was a visionary move. It was a bold move and he recognizes that there's an AI race and we're not alone and he wants America to win.
And so it's not about AI diffusion limitation, it's about AI diffusion maximizing American technology. Okay. So and so he sees that. Okay. So let's talk about the black the Blackwell ramp which was amazing. And of course we're going to have Ultra which is incredible and the demand is the demand as when I saw you the last few times.
It sounds like you're running out of superlas, but demand seems even stronger than GTC. It is even stronger than Computex. the demand keeps growing because there's just more companies uh well number one inference has taken off that is number one inference has taken off this reasoning AI capability is genuinely a breakthrough it is now so popular solving so many problems and the amount of computation necessary for reasoning for thinking is a hundred times a thousand times more than a couple of years ago when chat GPT was a oneshot answer AI and so now these reasoning AI requires a lot of thinking a lot of compute uh the demand is just incredible now you're telling me even getting more customers but even since GTC you just increased it it was a hundred times so you see now it's possible even a thousand how is this possible Jensen and what why are there still people who holding back and not seeing what you're doing we will all have robots we will all have free if we'll have hands-free driving all this is going to come about much faster than people realize because of what you're working on.
It's completely true. It's completely robotics is is definitely within the next three to four, five years. The technology works today, it's starting to work very well today. Now, within once a technology becomes realized, becomes possible. It's only a couple of two, three ticks for an engineer to crank it and turn it into something that could be really scaled out in volume.
And so uh self-driving cars are here that we know robotics is going to be right around the corner. Robotic factories being built around the world. Yeah, this is this is the next next uh great growth opportunity. All right, so let's talk software. I don't think enough is talked about software. I don't think we're not talking about omniverse enough.
And we're not talking about the idea that we're not you're just not selling these devices. You're selling a full platform that's not duplicatable, which is why you're so far ahead everybody else. It's not just about the hardware. We used to be a chip company and then we became a systems company and Jim, you know, now we're an entire infrastructure company.
If you take a look what we build, it's an entire factory. And you can't just load up a factory with chips. You've got computing systems. You got networking systems and switches. But what you have mostly is a mountain of software to get it all to run. When you've got a $50 billion infrastructure, the software necessary to keep it humming and to make it make the utilization and the efficiency and its throughput as high as possible, that piece of software is invaluable.
If the utilization was 10% off, that's worth $5 billion. And so this is a very big deal now. Software is just a a giant part of our business. Okay. How about what we're we have to talk about society and the and the when I hear what you can do when I hear what the robots can do when I know what Boston Dynamics 1X when I see what these companies can do.
I wonder is uh is the CEO of Anthropic going to be right when he talks about a bloodbath of white collar workers, unemployment spiking 10 to 20%, mass elimination of jobs, or isn't your vision that productivity like whether it be the loom, whether it be the canal, whether it be the steam engine, these were all generators of jobs, not retractors of jobs.
It's a generator of jobs. There are they're they're surely different views. Let me give you this view. Okay, the there's a labor shortage between now and the end of the decade that's measured in some 30 40 50 million short. If you just translate 50 million people short in labor force and translate that to GDP growth, it's extraordinary.
It's approximately about the size of United States. And so so the ability for us to expand what is today a limited and short labor shortage um we uh around the world should be able to expand our GDP and that's that's our future to be able to you know turn these agents which are essentially workforce robots information robots and human robots you know physical robots to expand the world's GDP.
All right one last question from me. Uh, I want to be sure that we have a smooth transition to the next iteration to ultra and then even to to Reuben. How are we feeling? Because I know that there was a glitch. I got a little too aggressive in thinking everything would be smooth. I got ahead. I don't want to get ahead of myself this time.
We looking good. Well, first of all, Jim, remember we made last quarter and we made the quarter before that. So, so it was not easy. It was not easy. And let me tell you why it wasn't easy. uh in the case of Grace Blackwell because of this thinking machine we wanted to create this reasoning AI factory we wanted to create we changed the architecture of these AI supercomputers the architecture is completely different and it's extraordinarily complex and so anyways now the entire supply chain not only that we enabled a very very large supply chain to be able to build these things every ODM every OEM CSPs they've now got it up and running Okay, now here's the here's the really great thing.
Ultra is exactly the same architecture, exactly the same chassis, and so we'll just slip it right in and keep running. All right, we're going to leave it there. Uh, I wish you the best of luck. Congratulations on an amazing quarter, and let's see if the president's plan includes opening China back for you.
Thank you so much, Jensen. Absolutely. President, founder, CEO of two races. All right, thank you so much for coming on the show. Appreciate it. Thank you, Jim. See you. Mad money's back after the break. .
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