저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션은 달러에 약세, 금에 강세 요인이며 비트코인은 디지털 금이 아니라 고위험 성장주처럼 움직인다. 인플레이션과 자산 배분: 연준이 인플레이션을 억제하지 못할 것이라는 시장 인식이 확산되면 트레이더들이 달러를 팔고 금을 사게 된다. 실제로 이날 달러는 오전 인플레이션 발표 이후 상승분을 반납했고 금은 손실을 만회해 양(+)으로 마감했으며 월간 종가도 강했다. 금·은 전망: 인플레이션이 현실화되면 금과 은 가격이 가까운 시일 내 훨씬 더 크게 오를 것으로 본다. 비트코인 전망: 5월 비트코인은 약 40% 하락해 금(약 7.5% 상승)과 정반대로 움직였다. 현 가격은 3만 5천 달러 이하이며, 주말 거래 한산함을 이유로 1만~1만 5천 달러까지 급락할 가능성이 높다고 본다. 장기적으로는 이보다 더 낮아질 수 있으며, 중간 반등이 있더라도 최종적으로는 하락 추세가 유지된다는 견해다. 차트 근거: 2020년 말 이탈한 하락 추세선이 현재 지지선으로 바뀌었고, 그 위치가 약 1만 3~1만 4천 달러 부근이라 목표 구간 설정 근거로 제시했다. 상승은 급격히 올라간 만큼 하락도 더 빠르게 진행되는 패턴이라고 설명했다. 리스크·시장 심리: 비트코인 상승 시나리오(10만 달러 등)를 믿는 사람들도 있으나 가능성은 낮다고 한다. 시장에는 공포가 없고 과도한 안일함이 있어 위험하다고 지적했다. 분산투자 관점: 비트코인은 포트폴리오 위험을 줄이지 못하고 오히려 키우며, 금과 역상관 관계에 가깝다. 금의 대체재로 쓰려면 비트코인보다 은이 더 적합하다고 봤다. 은은 금과 높은 상관관계를 보이며 금보다 더 강하게 움직인다. 출연자 전망 요약: 인플레이션 강세 시 금·은 상승, 달러 약세, 비트코인 1만~1만 5천 달러 하락 및 그 이하 장기 하락 가능성.
다듬은 글
but eventually what traders are going to figure out is that high inflation is not good for the dollar and bad for gold because the fed is going to fight inflation by tightening policy it's because the fed is not going to fight inflation it's not going to tighten policy and so inflation is going to continue to erode away the value of those dollars so why would you buy them you won't you will sell them and you will buy gold and that's exactly what traders are going to do pretty soon bad news on inflation is not going to be good news for the dollar it's going to be bad news for the dollar and bad news on inflation is not going to be bad news for gold it is going to be good news for gold and in fact there is an indication that traders are already waking up to this reality because after this knee-jerk reaction to buy dollars and sell gold traders spent the rest of the day selling dollars and buying gold because the dollar gradually surrendered almost all of its early morning post uh inflation news gains and gold not only recouped all of its losses but ended up closing positive on the day in fact it closed near the absolute high of the day with the great monthly close that i already discussed so i think this is very significant because it shows to me that the traders are waking up to this reality that inflation is bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold and they're starting to realize that it doesn't matter how much the fed barks about its willingness or intentions or ability to fight inflation should it rear its head the market is starting to realize that inflation isn't going to be fought that inflation is going to win by default because the fed isn't even going to try to fight it because it can't and so we're starting to see that and if this is the case i expect to see much bigger gains in the price of gold and silver in the very near future now continuing with this theme of rotation out of overpriced speculative assets into a conservative value assets the same thing was happening with cryptocurrencies bitcoin in particular in sharp contrast to the strong month that gold had in may bitcoin had a disastrous month bitcoin is down about 40 so far during the month of may of course i say so far because bitcoin is still trading the stock market is done for the month but not bitcoin because bitcoin trades 24 hours a day seven days a week so bitcoin still has three more days of trading including today uh to to end may and so who knows i mean as i am recording this podcast bitcoin is below 35 000 right and that's where it's down 40 on the month but if you look at the bitcoin chart objectively right you look at the slope of the huge parabolic move up and now look at the slope of the move down and it really looks like that entire move is about to get reversed and to me it looks like bitcoin can easily fall not just to 20 000 which was the old high but i think the low is more likely to come in somewhere between 10 000 and 15 000 before we see you know some type of a dead cat balance who knows we may even do that this memorial day weekend because the weekends are notorious for bitcoin crashes because you don't have as much volume there people are on vacation and they're not necessarily trading and so you have less volume and so maybe you can exaggerate these moves so it wouldn't surprise me to see bitcoin move down somewhere between 10 and 15 000.
ultimately it's going much lower than that but nothing goes down in a straight line not even bitcoin there's going to be a bounce at some point right people buy the dip and so if we do get a dip to between 10 and 15 000 i do expect that people will buy it although it's really not correct to call something like that a dip that would constitute a 75 to 80 collapse from the 65 000 high but the point is even if you are a bitcoin bull even if you think bitcoin is gonna go to a hundred thousand and that's why you got laser beams on your eyes even if that happens and i think it's pretty unlikely that it will happen in fact i don't even think it's that likely that bitcoin makes a new high but clearly you know it's more likely that it gets back above 65 000 that it hits a hundred thousand but whether it gets to 65 000 or 100 000 there is a very high probability that before it goes up there it's going down to you know 15 000 to 10 000 first that that is the path that it's going to take and given the potential for that type of decline there is maximum complacency out there i still do not get any sense of fear or panic nobody is worried everybody is dismissing the possibility that bitcoin could drop to 10 or 15 000 but if you look objectively at a chart it seems pretty obvious that that's where it's going to go in fact it wouldn't necessarily mean it was a bearish long-term chart if you look at the downward slope if you connect the 20 20 high which was about 20 000 and you draw a diagonal line and you connect a couple of other significant tops we broke out of that downtrend at the end of 2020.
if we go back down and test that downtrend which was resistance and is now support it's gonna i think it's around maybe 13 14 000 is somewhere in there and so that's why i'm picking maybe 10 to 15 000 somewhere in that range is a realistic place for bitcoin to go given the way the chart looks giving the parabolic nature of the ascent and how the collapse is not only mirroring that descent but is actually taking place faster which is typical right markets take the elevator up and the staircase down now obviously in this case uh bitcoin took the express elevator up and so now it's it's it's taking like a fireman's pole down uh so even that movement is being compressed which is why the whole thing can implode just over this weekend but i think the real significant aspect of what happened to bitcoin in may in contrast to what happened to gold is it should completely blow away the narrative that bitcoin is digital gold i mean i've been saying this from the beginning that bitcoin is not digital gold i mean it's not digital gold because you can't use bitcoin as a replacement for gold in any of its real world uses i mean if i want to make some jewelry i can't just decide to use bitcoin instead of a gold it won't work now what the bitcoin bugs will say is look bitcoin is not a replacement for gold as far as its actual uses where you can replace gold with bitcoin is in your portfolio that instead of putting gold in an investment portfolio to be a safe haven to be a store of value to be an inflation hedge you can substitute bitcoin as digital gold and bitcoin will do for your portfolio the same thing that gold does well this proves that that's complete nonsense gold was up seven and a half percent in may and bitcoin is down 40 how is bitcoin behaving anything like gold what it's behaving like is other high risk assets uh that went down like these overpriced nasdaq stocks like a lot of these uh new innovation type companies that that kathy wood has been loading up on those stocks got clobbered in may along with bitcoin so bitcoin didn't act like digital gold it acted like some type of digital tech stock or something like that it is not correlated with gold it's correlated with very speculative assets if anything there is an inverse correlation between bitcoin and gold so if bitcoin trades the opposite of gold in what manner is it digital gold in no manner if you're looking for an asset to balance out a portfolio an asset that might go up when other assets are going down the last thing that you would want to buy is bitcoin because when your risky assets are going down well bitcoin is going to go down even more so bitcoin doesn't reduce the risk of your portfolio it increases the risk of your portfolio look what bitcoin should do if it was some kind of supercharged version of gold the digital gold maybe you would expect that when gold goes up well bitcoin goes up even more right but when gold goes down bitcoin goes down even more but since you expect gold to go up why not buy digital gold because it will go up even more sure if you're wrong and gold goes down bitcoin may go down more but since you're buying gold because you think it's going to go up well why not just buy bitcoin because it'll go up more except it doesn't do that i mean what behaves like that would be silver so if you wanted a supercharged version of gold well you would buy silver because that's exactly the way silver behaves silver is highly correlated with gold
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