저자: Riley · 외국인
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애리조나 주택시장은 여전히 매도자 우위이나 재고 증가 속도가 둔화되며 안정화 조짐이 보인다. 재고 현황: 활성 매물 13,766건(주간 +9.6%, 전주 대비 증가폭 축소), 이 중 50.3%가 공실로 투자자 물량 가능성이 언급됨. CMI(Crawford Report): 1.909(매수자/매물 비율)로 아직 매도자 우위, 수요 89.5(중립 이하), 공급 46.9. 전주 대비 수요 91.9→89.5, 공급 43.4→46.9로 변화 폭은 완만. 금리·인플레이션: 연준은 인플레이션이 2%에 한참 못 미쳐 금리 인상을 이어갈 가능성이 높다고 봄. 다음 CPI 발표(7월 15일) 전후로 디스인플레이션 진행을 기대하나 확실치 않다고 언급. 마이클 배리 견해: 월마트·타겟 등 대기업 재고 적체와 올해 후반 소비자 침체 가능성을 지적, 연준이 금리 인하로 입장을 바꿀 수 있다고 봄. 금리 인하 시 주택 수요 회복 가능성 언급. 실거래 사례: 본인 고객 매물이 listed 59.9만 달러에서 63.5만 달러(호가 대비 +3.6만 달러)에 펜딩 전환된 사례를 들어, 적정 가격 책정 시 여전히 호가 초과 낙찰이 가능하다고 주장. 다만 다수 매도자가 과거 상승을 기대해 호가를 높게 책정하는 추세로 가격 인하 매물도 늘고 있음. 전망: 단기 급락보다는 안정화/횡보 시나리오가 더 유력하며, 금리 인하 전환 시 주택 가격 재상승 가능성을 열어둠. 출연자 개인 견해: 주택은 생활 기반 자산이라 일반 주식과 달리 시장 고점에도 쉽게 매도하지 않는다는 논리 제시.
다듬은 글
what's up guys it's riley back with another market update today is tuesday june 28 2022 before we get into inventory if you like this video if you find it in from informational go ahead and subscribe like this video it really helps out the channel a ton let's get right into inventory as of right now our inventory is sitting at thirteen thousand seven hundred sixty six listings up from twelve thousand five hundred forty two active listings as of last week that's a nine point six percent increase again another increase not very surprising here but actually it is less of an increase than it was last week and what could that mean it could mean that we have peaked in the in the amount of houses every week that we're seeing come to market and so we're we could see a slow down and more of a stabilization of the market rather than just such of a sharp increase that we have seen over the past three months an interesting fact about that 13766 active listings that we have on the market as of right now 50.3 percent of those are vacant what does that mean well it means that it's not just like i'm selling my house and i'm living in it it could be an investor it could be an eye buyer it could be someone that sold that's going to rent that's going to be a lesser number but could this be a wave of investors that are going to the market to basically get their house on the market so that they can get out while the market's still hot it could be right we're seeing over half of the listings on the market be vacant so a lot of those could be investor owned maybe the smaller institutions own these houses and they're going to market with to get you know the best price rather than packaging them together and selling them to a larger institution but people are rushing to the market to get these houses sold quickly while the market's still hot while we are still in a seller's market rather than when it gets to more of a stabilization and equilibrium and maybe into a buyer's market we'll see it really depends on the fed and raising the interest rates along with a lot of other factors of course but this is why real estate is a very unique asset because in terms of stocks you know say say everyone thinks the market's really high in stocks and they want to sell out you don't need another stock to live in and to rest your head and rest your head at night right in real estate you have a house and this is my primary residence right here i'm not going to sell this house and then have nowhere to live i don't want to rent rent prices are high i'm locked in at a low interest rate i'm locked in at a great monthly payment and so i'm not going to go sell my house because i think the market's high i'm going to live in it you know we don't there's everyone that owns a house is not basically rushing the market to go ahead and sell their house a lot of these are the investor types which is you know that's what's happening they're coming in they want to sell at a good price they'll still get a good price for their house i'm sure they made you know 30 last year the maybe 20 the year before depending on how long they've owned this house but people like you and me who just own a house in just one house we're not going to go to the market and sell our houses and not have a house anymore right especially if we have a low it a low interest rate a low monthly payment i don't want to go rent and you know just have equity sitting and while inflation's high and have all that equity get burnt up by inflation i'm going to you know park it in this ass i'm going to keep it in this asset and i'm not going to go out and and sell this house and that's why this asset class is so different and hard to guess what's going to happen is because it does act very differently than it than a different asset class like stocks you know bonds cash stuff like that the fed is likely going to continue raising rates right because we're seeing inflation still at a high number we'll go ahead and find out next month here in about two and a half weeks or so on july 15th when the next cpi comes out we'll go ahead and see when or or how much inflation we are at at that period of time i think it's going to be lower just practically i'm seeing gas prices come down i'm seeing more rentals on the market therefore less rental price increases but we will see what the fed continues to do i'm guessing you know they will continue to raise the interest rates just because um just because we're seeing a disinflation from where we were a lowering in inflation um doesn't mean you know that's the finish line the fed wants to get down to two percent where we were at like 8.6 or 8.8 percent which is crazy so we still have quite a ways to go so they're going to continue to raise interest rates but hopefully we will start to see a disinflation not a deflation deflation means we are under zero percent we're still very inflated but we'll see a disinflation meaning coming down from like an 8.8 to hopefully like an eight or high seven something like that an interesting article that i came across was this and it was the big short that's michael bury the guy that predicted the 2007-2008 housing market crash is predicting this next and you won't believe it michael bury is seeing a lot of these big corporations such as like walmart target corporations with a lot of inventory going in and out they're starting to stockpile inventory almost to the point of where you'll go and do a return and they don't want the cost of maintaining that inventory anymore some of these corporations are telling you to keep your item that you've returned it's crazy but he's seeing that these corporations are stockpiling inventory like crazy that there could be a consumer recession later on this year meaning consumers no longer are wanting to purchase as much meaning these companies are going to have these huge inventories that they can't get rid of and he thinks that the fed will reverse their stance hopefully by this time inflation is taken care of but he thinks that the fed may reverse their stance and start lowering interest rates again to motivate the public to start spending their money again a very interesting take you never know what's going to happen the market's crazy we live in a crazy time but that's what michael bury is predicting if interest rates start to lower again that will motivate people to start buying assets again including houses so we could see a very stagnant market from here to then meaning the market doesn't really go up or down it just kind of continues on we could see a slight dip because interest rates are rising at the rate they are or we could see you know the market stagnate and then that come into play the fed lowering rates again mortgages become more affordable people want to buy again and house prices could start going up again we will see what happens getting into the cmi the crawford report we are seeing a 190.9 as the cmi this week as of yesterday what does that mean it means 1.909 buyers for every listing out there so we're still in a seller's market by a bit you know we still almost have ever for every listing we almost have two buyers for every listing but an interesting thing that you can see we're in the red when it comes to demand 89.5 90 to 105 is a neutral anything above 105 is more of a seller's market but we're seeing a red demand we're seeing not neutral below neutral demand because of all these interest rates but we're still in the seller's market why well it's because supply is at 46.9 again there's not a lot on that market even though we've seen this sharp increase in supply we still aren't at the equilibrium point we still have quite a ways to go to get there and so i'm guessing you know the market will continue to stabilize but this is why some people are saying the market's not going to crash because we still have a lot of houses that we need on the market to get to an equilibrium you know we'll see that's up from last week though we're at 210.2 as the cmi where the demand was at 91.9 so it was neutral last week and then supply was 43.4 so we're seeing those those numbers move but not as drastically as they were before so practically with my own clients i'm still seeing houses go over and above ask even a house where that we put an offer in um last week was listed at 5.99 and it went pending at 6.35 36 000 over asking price and that is again kind of nuts but if you price your home right you're you'll you will be able to do this that house had the right comps to support it it was you know fairly updated had a newer kitchen some great backyard features but it wasn't like the craziest house in the world is listed at 5.99 i wasn't sure exactly about how many offers they got but it went for 635 as pending so it's kind of crazy we're still seeing these houses go over and above ask just being able to price it right really puts you in the right market we're seeing a lot of houses come down in price um in list price specifically because a lot of sellers are are wanting what they saw happen over the past six to 12 months and you know prices go crazy they want to take part of that but if you list too strong and there aren't as many buyers out there you're going to have to come down in your price thank you so much for watching this market update for tuesday june 28 2022 we very much appreciate it if you like this video if you find it informational go ahead and subscribe go ahead and like this video and go ahead and put some comments down in the comment section down below do you have any questions about the phoenix real estate market at all more than happy to answer those but my name is riley with team cr realty where arizona real estate is seen
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