Michael Burry Isn't Worried About Inflation Anymore - Market Update

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결론: 부동산 시장 소식 중심이며 대상 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없음. [재고·매물] 활성 매물이 14,712건에서 15,600건으로 약 6% 증가. 매물 증가세는 몇 주 전 정점을 찍은 뒤에도 두 자릿수 증가가 이어지는 중. [주택 구매 여건] 주택 구매 적합도(affordability)는 15년래 최저 수준이라고 언급. 현재는 구매자에게 협상 여지가 커졌다고 설명. [구매 전략] 가격 인하 대신 판매자 부담 비용(seller concession)을 요구해 금리를 낮추는 방법 제시. 예시: 50만 달러 주택에서 2만 달러 판매자 부담을 받으면 금리가 약 5.8%에서 4.8%로 낮아져 월 수백 달러 절감 가능. [인플레이션·금리] 다음 날(7/13) 발표되는 CPI가 연준 결정에 영향을 줄 것으로 언급. 마이클 버리는 올해 소비자 저축 소진으로 소비가 줄어 연말~내년 초 디플레이션 가능성을 주장. 진행자는 40년래 최고 수준 인플레이션을 감안할 때 다소 과감한 주장으로 평가하며 실제 반응은 지켜봐야 한다고 말함. [크램포드 시장지수] CMI 156.3(바이어 1.56명/매물 1건), 공급지수 54.8, 수요지수 85.6으로 판매자 우위 시장임을 설명. 지난주 대비 CMI 하락. 이자율 조정과 주택 가격 조정이 있어야 추세가 바뀔 것으로 전망. [판매자 동향] 일부 판매자가 이웃 매물의 과거 가격을 기준으로 과도하게 높게 호가를 책정하나 시장이 재조정되며 매물 체류기간이 길어지는 중. 연초 대비 공급은 약 4배 증가. [리스팅 전략] 과거와 달리 지금은 매도 시 전략이 필요하다고 강조. 팀의 전략으로 호가 이상 거래가 가능하다고 홍보. [조건/리스크] 금리 하락 등 주택 구매 여건 개선이 없으면 수요 회복 제한. 디플레이션 시나리오는 불확실. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 금리와 주택 구매 여건이 개선되기 전까지 매물 증가와 구매자 우위 흐름이 이어질 것으로 전망(부동산 시장 한정, 대상 자산 예측 아님).

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01. hello and welcome back to this week's market update my name is riley rhodes with team cr realty before we jump into inventory if you like these videos if you find them informational go ahead and subscribe it helps us out a ton okay let's jump right into inventory this week we are seeing a six percent increase from fourteen thousand seven hundred twelve active listings to fifteen thousand six hundred lots of these houses are still coming to market but we have seen the percentage of houses coming to market peak a few weeks back when we are seeing double-digit increases every week i suspect this trend will continue for a bit until we see some relief in the mortgage rates for buyers something needs to budge because affordability of housing is currently at a 15-year low there's nothing really new in inventory to report on we're seeing you know another increase but another reminder is it's much easier to buy right now than it was in the past you can go get your inspection you know pay appraised price even you know lower than appraised price because there's just so many houses that are coming to market and because interest rates because it's more expensive go find you know if you need to have a house right now you need to move into a house you outgrew your current house or you know you have a family you have a baby on the way go find that house that's been sitting on the market for a bit that fits you and your situation and go make an offer but instead of asking for like a lower price ask for a seller concession which will help you buy down your rate so instead of a you know it's a five hundred thousand dollar house you say i'm gonna pay four hundred and eighty thousand go ask for a twenty thousand dollar seller concession instead of lowering the purchase price and you can apply that towards your rate that would be about a percent difference in your rate from like a 5.8 to a 4.8 saving you a few hundred dollars a month by buying down your rate rather than getting a smaller purchase price for that same house speaking of these interest rates the cpi or consumer pricing index which we're getting our inflation numbers from comes out tomorrow the 13th be on the lookout for that because that will likely influence the fed's decision one person who isn't worried about this inflation is michael bury he thinks that consumers will exhaust their savings this year and they will start spending a lot less and this will drive inflation down and possibly lead to deflation late this year and early in the next year kind of a crazy thing to say especially when we're seeing inflation being at such a high point in the past few decades past 40 years it's the highest point but he thinks we could possibly see deflation in this market because of all the things that are in place in this kind of market what the fed's doing with interest rates but we will see if inflation will react that quickly and steeply to the conditions and if michael is right about this market all right let's get into the cramford report next we're sitting at a 156.3 on the cmi or the cromford market index so that means we have a we have a 1.56 buyers for every listing still we have a 54.8 on the supply index and an 85.6 on the demand you can see the demand is in the red right now and this is how skewed our supply really is if phoenix had supply before all of these external forces came in we'd be sitting at a buyer's market quite a while ago and so this is where we're at today we're seeing the cmi go up from i'm sorry go down from last week and you know this is just a trend that we will continue to see until interest rates are really uh you know change until housing becomes a little bit more affordable if we see a little bit of a correction and interest rates come down this is what we will continue to see because it's just so expensive right now to buy than it was before practically we're still seeing sellers being greedy and listing too high they may want the same price that you know their neighbors were getting down the street six months ago three months ago even last month this just really isn't the case anymore because the market is having to readjust some agents are learning this as well and you're just seeing inventory of houses sit on the market for a lot longer this is again just because it's more expensive we have more supply than we did at the beginning of the year we almost have four times as much supply than we did at the beginning of the year it's crazy with that being said in order to list a house right now and get what you're listing it or get what you you're asking for you have to have a strategy in place you have to have a well thought out plan now uh versus you know six months ago you list it you put up the mls pictures you're getting above asking price no matter what you don't really have to have a strategy anyone could have really done that but now is the time where you have to really have a strategy and this is the reason why our team is still getting above ask price because we're coming to market with strategy and little things here and there that get more eyes on the property more interest and obviously more money in their pocket so that's just kind of a shout out for our team we list well so if you have any questions about listing don't hesitate to reach out at all thanks so much for sticking around for this week's short market update on the phoenix market if you have any questions as always go ahead and leave them in the comment section down below while you're there hit that like button and subscribe don't hesitate to reach out in regards to anything real estate our contact info is down in this description down below my name is riley with team cr realty where arizona real estate is seen