저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
주식이 10~20배 오르려면 기업의 실물 사업(매출·용량확대·시장점유율·이익)이 그만큼 성장해야 한다고 설명. 농부 예시로 소득 증가 구조를 비유하고, 사업 설립·회수에 2~3년 이상 걸린다고 강조. 주가 차트만 보는 예측은 무의미하며 장기 보유(10년 이상)를 권고. 과거 급등 종목(엔비디아 등)을 예시로 든 일반론.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, look, everybody wants that my stock should increase 10 times, 20 times and give good returns, everybody wants that, who doesn't want that, everybody wants that, isn't it sir, everybody wants that my company should do this, my business, whatever stock I invest in, this should happen, that should happen, this should happen, that should happen, everybody wants that sir, look, I will tell you a story and you will tell this story to your children also throughout your life because this is not a story, this is the reality, now suppose [nasal sound] suppose I want to tell you sir, this is an area.
It is such a big area, sir. Ok? Look, let us take an example. What is this big head? This is land. Now let us assume that what I mean to say is that this is such a big land. A farmer does farming in this, sir. So he gets ₹10,000. How much do you get ? I get 10,000 sir. If a farmer does farming for one year, he gets ₹1,000.
How much will this farmer get if he does farming again next year ? I will get Rs 10,000 again, right sir? Even if you do farming in the third year, you will get Rs 10,000. So the income is the same every year. So brother, how will you increase your income? To increase his income, this farmer will have to increase his land.
I am saying wrong sir. Now how much will this farmer earn? Now you will earn Rs 10,000 here also sir. Now the income of this farmer has become ₹00, let us accept this. Now let us assume that he earned ₹2000 in one year, then earned ₹0000 in the next year, and in the third year earned approximately ₹1,000 sir, sorry ₹20,000, so brother, how can he earn more money?
So he will say, brother, I will have to buy land and do farming. Now this farmer earns Rs 10-10, so how much is it now? Then he earns Rs 10,000 here also. Now this farmer earns ₹30,000 sir. Every year this company will earn only ₹30,000 for the farmer. Now this farmer wants to say that brother, I want to earn ₹60,000 and I want to increase it, so what will this farmer have to do and he will have to buy land, sir.
What will have to be done and land will have to be purchased sir. Then approximately what it is, sir, then here 10,000, then here 10,000, then here 10,000, 10,000, okay ? Then what will they do? Then their income will be ₹60,000. What did you learn? What did you learn here, sir? What did you learn that when we assume that a person has limited land for farming, then how much of it will you do with farming, Sir, worth Rs.
1 crore, Rs. 5 crore, Rs. 10 crore? What will you do? No, what will you do sir? If a class room has the capacity to seat only 10 children, then can you earn more fees by seating 100 or 1000 children in the same class room, sir? You can't do it, right? What needs to be done for that? A big class room has to be built , a big school has to be built, Sir, are you understanding the knowledge?
You people will say that you are not able to understand, sir. The stock you think about, brother, it should become 10 times, 20 times. How it will happen? Unless his company's business increases 10 times or 20 times, sir. The company's business will increase 10-20 times, that is why the stock price will also increase 10-20 times, sir.
Did you understand? Now understand the real business of the company. Understand real business and stock market sir. People buy in the stock market and think, man, I did not run away today. How will he escape today? The company is doing the same work which it was doing yesterday and the day before yesterday, then how did it run away today sir, okay, so I told you, you can see here, most of the people think invest today, profit tomorrow, we invested today and will get profit tomorrow sir, but I told you what a real business is, it does not work like that, a real business does not work daily sir, it does not happen, the company itself gives quarterly results, that is, it gives results once in 3 months sir and we people think that friend, there has been no profit for one month, there has been no profit for two months sir, okay, if you look at the company, it takes years for them to grow sir, it takes years to grow sir, it takes many years to grow sir.
Look, when a company invests, it has to spend money from its own pocket. Like land has to be purchased , factory has to be constructed , machines have to be installed, technology has to be installed, employees have to be brought in by selecting them and taking interviews. Ok ? Raw material has to be brought, dealership distributor network has to be brought, sir.
After doing all this, sir. [nasal noise] Okay? You can see here in all these stages that money is going out. Only money goes out in doing all these things. Did the company get anything? I didn't find anything, sir. Ok? Not coming in, money is not coming in, money is only going out sir, money is not being received at all, sir, in all these things the company only has to pay money, now think sir, how much time does it take you to buy a piece of land, sir, will you buy it in 2 days or not, it takes 6 months or a year, right sir, in the same way, it takes time to construct your house, how do you build your house, sir, let me tell you, a poor person takes not 2 years but 10-10 years, 20-20 years to build his house, sir, and if a company has to do construction here, sir, it will be done in a jiffy, how will this happen, sir, let us assume that they also take 6 months to buy the land in construction.
It took 6 months to complete the construction. It took 6 months to buy the machines, Sir. Let us assume that it took about a year to bring in the technology, employees and also to buy the raw material, so it will take a total of about 3 years, 2 years at least, Sir. No matter how much you do, it will take 2 to 3 years.
And we think that the stock is not moving for the last 6 months. It is not working. They have to buy the machine. After purchasing the machine, it has to be installed. The machines come from foreign companies and people also come from abroad to install them. Sir, think about it, setup also has to be done, sir it has to be taken to the operational level to see whether the machine is working or not.
Then all the employees, all the people who have been hired, almost all of them have to be given training etc., right sir, you can see the company needs here, it is being told that time is required for whom, to install the machine, to teach the people the work, to hire them, sir, it is required for government approval, sir, it is required for testing, sir, it is required to build relationships for all these things, it takes at least one to two years for the company, sir and we people think, friend, when will my stock increase 10 times, sir, time will have to be given for that, time will have to be given, your children take time to grow, sir, in the same way, when all this work is done, everything is complete, after the setup is complete, the entire setup is complete, then the product which is mentioned here, sir, starts getting manufactured, now these people start manufacturing the product, okay, then they start selling it, saying, brother, now sell it, okay, then after that the revenue starts coming, but does the company It will earn money, right brother?
This company has spent so much in the last 2 years, it will have to recover it too. You can see here, Bikram, you can see here, what does the company do? Then the company gets busy in recovery. Brother, all the money that we have spent for 2 years in giving land to the people, in giving it to the government, in installation, in machines, in giving it to the dealer, all this money that we have invested, what does the company recover with that?
And people in the stock market, brother, for the last 2 years, this company is not giving profit. Wow, if you ever think like a business mindset in life, there will be a huge profit, sir, only then the company starts making profit, sir, now the company starts making profit, sir, it is said that after so many deals, you can see here that the sales of the company increase, if you see, the cost becomes almost equal, it becomes efficient , profit starts coming.
So it takes three to five years for the company. That's why Warren Buffett says that if you cannot hold a company for 10 years, then don't buy it even for 10 minutes, sir. So now I understand why you are not able to multiply your money 10 times, sir? You do n't have a business mindset, sir. It is not like that, sir.
You should have a business-like mind, sir. I want to tell you that Sir, just by wearing a dhoti and applying tilak or showing incense sticks, Sir, you will not become a Pandit, Sir, you will not become one, Sir, you do not know how much penance you will have to do for that, Sir, you are understanding, right, in the same way, Sir, in the earlier times, Sir, thousands of years ago, when God used to live on earth, then to call God, Sir, one had to do penance, one had to do severe penance, only then God would come, in today's times, people think that with a snap of the fingers, God is present, with a snap of the fingers, the money is in the bank account, it means brother, do less of this snap of the fingers work, okay, and if you cannot wait for 3 to 5 years, then do not invest money in the stock market, set up your own business, business in 10 days, set up your own business in 10 days, and leave the tension of job, Sir, is it there or not, see if you invest money in other's company, it will take you 3 to 5 years, you do not want to do it, okay?
If you don't trust me then open your own business brother. You can double your money in 3 days or 10 days by starting your own business. Who has stopped you? Who has forbidden it? Has the government forbidden it? No. No one refused. The neighborhood told you no. Someone open your own business. And double your money in 10 days.
Do it. It doesn't happen, right sir? It doesn't happen, right? So how do you expect the person next to you to do this? Sir. So your stock will increase 10 times in the stock market only then. When will it happen? This will happen only when the underlying business of that company is being told much higher over time, when the underlying business of that company, underlying business means real business, when the real actual business, physical business of that company grows very strongly, only then this company will be seen growing on a very big level, sir, remember, you have to pay attention to the revenue of the company, on capacity expansion, on market share, sir, okay, on profit, you have to pay attention to all these things, sir and you have to give time, is it okay?
Small companies grow rapidly, sir. So this means it grows rapidly, so sir, will it multiply your money 10 times in 2 months ? No brother, no. Now people think that sir so many stocks are running away. So sir, go and see, its chart pattern is like this. First, that stock didn't last 10 years. Now you have started walking, sir.
So this one which you do n't see, this one. You guys make this mistake, sir. This is Sir Nvidia. The most powerful company on this earth. This is the most powerful company on this earth, sir. It is a company worth 4 to 5 trillion. Sir, you will not be able to see such a big company even after your death.
Sir, this is such a big company. Ok? And such a company, sir, almost all of you people, if you have done a lot of good deeds, sir, a lot, it means you have never done any wrong thing till date. Still, Sir, you will not get such company even in heaven. Ok? You won't find it even in heaven, sir. People will say such a company, brother, why brother?
Why? Because sir, see, this company did not run from 1999 to 2019-20. Sir, this stock did not last for 20 years. Will you be able to handle yourself for 20 years? Will you be able to maintain patience? Yes. Look sir, look from 1999 to 2019-20, this stock did not move at all. Only after consolidating did you start running, sir.
Yes or no? Yes. Now people will say, friend, the company, okay, let's just say sir, let's erase it. Let's delete this. Let's see from here till here, sir. Now tell me how will the stock go from here to here? Tell me how and from where? It may even go higher from here. Sir, it is possible, right sir?
If you see, it is possible that the stock may go up from here. One can go down from here also. Sir, we can go from here like this also, right? Tell me, if you look at the chart of a stock, then after looking at it everyone can predict the future. Sir, it is possible that it may go up from here or go sideways or even go down.
Sir, is it so? Sir, if you are not able to handle yourself for 1 year, 2 years or 3 years, if you handle yourself for 20 years, then Sir, you will really become a businessman. Sir, really Microsoft, Sir, almost all our systems run from this company. Look, the company did not run for many years. Then here Sir, the company did not run for 10 years.
If you look here, from 1999 to 2016, the company did not run for 16 years. Look here, the company did not run for 16 years. Now people will say, brother, this is a good company. Sir, after seeing this, you are saying, right? If we erase this, if we erase this, then look, brother, look, we have erased it.
Now tell me Sir, no, now tell me, how will the stock go from here, Sir, how did you feel? Now from here, the company may go up from here, it may go down here too. After looking, it worked, right, Sir, this way There are many stocks from this, you can go and buy them, sir, look at 161, this stock did not do well for 16 years, look at Reliance Industries, people say brother Ambani Ambani, brother Ambani did not become Ambani just like that, look, even their stocks did not do well for 10-10 years, sir, look from 2008 to 2017, even these stocks did not do well for 10 years, but Ambani did not concentrate on other's shares after selling his own company, see is it there or not, one has to give time sir, people think that if we get a company like Bhaisha Motor, wow, it would be amazing, how can we get it sir, look at you, this company had completely sunk, sir, this company was started in 199 and this company till 2011-12, that means also understand that the company did not do well for 10 years sir.
Sir, this company did not last for 10-12 years. You see, Bajaj Finance is people's favorite. Wow Bajaj Finance has run up 3-4% today. People will say there are 10 reasons, 20 reasons for this. But Sir, when you look at this company approximately, I mean for many years, approximately when this company came into existence from 2002 and from 2002, let's say till 2000-14, that is, the stock did not move for 12 years, still it started moving after that, Sir.
Sir Bajaj, you started walking from here, from here. Now we erase this only. We erase this. Let's remove it. Now tell me where will you go? Now let's delete the company chart. Sir, now tell me where will sir go? Tell me the future, sir. Tell me, tell me, you people are God, right sir? So you can predict the future, sir, that Bajaj is good.
What kind of Bajaj is good brother? Tell me, your company hasn't been running from here for 10 years. Now tell me whether it is good or bad. Now will it go up from here , go here or go down? After seeing it, sir, everyone will tell you who has gone. Sir, tell me how will I go from here? Let's assume this is not Bajaj, sir.
Now tell me what will be the future after this, sir? Tell me. People become like this in 1 year, 2 years, 3 years. So that's why we do n't have to focus on the runaway company. Attention has to be paid to the underlying business of the company to see how big the company's business is growing. Sir, we have to check accordingly.
Only then will our stock be 10 times, 20 times. First of all, we have to focus only on the physical business of the company. Only on physical business and secondly sir we have to give Dum Bhatt time. In the stock market you only give time. Sir, what do you offer in the stock market ? Sir, you tell me.
In the stock market, people will say that if you give money then sir you keep the money in your bank account also, so what does the bank give you, what does the bank give you, sir the bank does not give you anything, what do you give to the stock market, sir first tell me that you do not give anything, sir, here do you keep your money in the bank or not, sir you do, you keep your money at home, sir you keep your money in the stock market, but like when people keep money in the stock market then why do they expect that it should double in 10 days, it should double in 6 months, although sir in FD you do not think that it should double at home, so when you keep your money at home then you do not think that why did the money not double in about 10 then 6 months?
Then why do you start thinking like this so soon after entering the stock market, Sir? Tell me. Why? When you set up your own business, brother, people do it with tension. If it doesn't work, everything will sink. This will happen. Sir, I can't even think of starting my own business. But as soon as people enter the stock market, they consider themselves supermen, sir.
That brother, I am the only one who is here. I am the king. I am God. There is no one greater than me here. People start thinking of themselves like this, sir. Think about business yourself, it takes a lot of time to set up a business, it takes 3 years, 5 years to establish a business, only then it becomes successful.
So if you want a stock that will grow 10 times, 20 times or 30 times, then go for a small or good company whose business is growing. Do n't even look at the stock price, sir. Why? Because we don't care about stock price. Ok? It doesn't make any sense, sir. Where will the stock price go? We should only be concerned with the company's business.
If the company's business increases 10 times in the next 10 years, then the stock will also increase 10 times, sir, and if the company's business does not increase 10 times, then the stock will also not increase, sir. So now I think your way of thinking must be changing a little bit. Okay, subscribe to the channel and I am going to upload two important videos for you.
Only if you think and understand, you will move ahead in life, sir. There is no shortcut, no shortcut, there is only one shortcut, see, there is only one shortcut in life and that is to go up, sir. There is only one shortcut in life, that is to go up. There is no shortcut to success, sir.
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