저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏의 분산투자·현금·변동성 관련 발언을 재가공한 영상으로, 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향 예측은 없고 장기 투자 철학 중심이다. 현금 보유: 버핏은 60/40 같은 자산배분 비율이나 일정 현금 비중을 두는 것을 '완전히 허튼소리'로 보며, 좋은 사업을 찾지 못해 현금이 쌓이면 불만족스럽다고 말한다. 시장 예측: 버핏과 멍거는 시장에 대한 의견을 갖지 않으며, 좋은 사업이 보이면 시장 전망과 무관하게 행동해야 한다고 본다. 분산투자: 분산은 무지에 대한 보호장치이며, 기업 분석 능력이 있다면 종목을 30~50개씩 보유하는 것은 비합리적이라고 주장한다. 변동성과 리스크: 베타(변동성)는 리스크를 측정하지 못하며, 리스크는 사업의 본질과 투자자의 무지에서 온다고 본다. 농지 사례로 과거 변동성이 리스크를 결정하지 않는다고 설명한다. 투자 자질: 높은 IQ보다 안정된 기질이 중요하며, 최고의 투자는 자기 자신에 대한 투자(특히 소통 능력)라고 강조한다. 도박과 세금: 도박은 무지에 대한 세금이며, 정부가 시민의 약점을 이용하는 것은 사회적으로 역겹다고 비판한다. 성장주와 가치주: 둘은 구분되는 범주가 아니며, 성장은 가치평가의 일부라고 설명한다. 항공산업은 성장이 오히려 자본을 잠식한 사례로, 씨즈캔디는 적은 투자로 성장하는 사례로 든다. 매수 시점: 좋은 기업을 장기 보유하는 것이 바람직하며, 공황 때를 기다리는 전략은 기대하기 어렵다고 본다.
다듬은 글
we would never have cash around just to have cash I mean we would never think that we should have a cash position of extra percent and frankly I think these asset allocation things the tacticians in Wall Street put out you know about 60 stocks and 35 we think that's total nonsense uh we want to have all our money working in decent businesses but sometimes we can't find them or sometimes cash comes in expectedly or sometimes we sell something and we have more cash around than we would like and more cash around than we would like means that we have 10 or 15 cents around we want money employed but we'll never employ a just employ it and and and you will find us quite unhappy over time if if cash just keeps building up and I I think one way or another will find ways to use it you may have trouble believing this but Charlie and I never have an opinion about the market because it wouldn't be any good and it might interfere with the opinions we have that are good if we're right about a business if we think a business as attractive it would be very foolish for us to not take action on that because we thought something about what the market was going to do or or anything of that sort because we just don't know and and and to give up something that you do know and that is profitable for something that you don't know and won't know because of that it just doesn't it doesn't make any sense to us and it doesn't really make any difference to us there's nothing magic we like to put a lot of money in things that that we feel strongly about and that gets back to the diversification question um we think diversification is as practice generally makes very little sense for anyone that knows what they're doing diversification is a protection against ignorance I mean if you want to make sure that nothing bad happens to you relative to the market you own everything there's nothing wrong with that I mean that that is a perfectly sound approach for somebody who who does not feel they know how to analyze businesses if you know how to analyze businesses and value businesses it's crazy to own 50 stocks or 40 stocks or 30 stocks probably because there aren't that many wonderful businesses that are understandable to a single human being in all likelihood and it and to have some super wonderful business and then put money in number 30 or 35 on your list of attractiveness and forgo putting more money into number one just strikes Charlie and me as as Madness and it's conventional practice and it you know if all you have to achieve is is average it's a confession in our view that you don't really understand the businesses that you own on a personal portfolio basis you know I own one stock you know but it's a business I know it and it leaves me very comfortable uh so you know do I do I need to own 28 stocks in order to have proper diversification you know and be nonsense and three wonderful businesses it's more than you need in this life to do very well and uh the average person isn't going to run into that I mean if you look at how the fortunes were built in this country they weren't built out of a portfolio of 50 companies they were they were built by someone who identified with us with a wonderful business yes volatility does not measure risk the problem is that the people who have written and taught about risks do not know how to measure risk and the nice thing about beta which is a measure of volatility is that it's nice and mathematical and wrong in in terms of measuring risk it's a it is a measure of volatility but past volatility does not determine the risk of investing I mean actually take it with Farmland here in 1980 or in the early 1980s Farms that sold for two thousand dollars an acre went to six hundred dollars an acre I bought one of them won the banking and farm crash took place and the beta of farms shot way up and according to standard economic theory Market Theory I was buying a much more risky asset at six hundred dollars an acre than the same Farm was at 2 000 an acre now people because Farmland doesn't trade often and prices don't get recorded you know they would regard that as nonsense that that might purchase the 600 an acre of the same farm that sold for two thousand an acre a few years ago was riskier but in socks because the prices jiggle around every minute and because it lets the people who teach Finance use the mathematics they've learned they have in effect they would explain us away a little more technically but they have effect translated past volatility in terms of all kinds of measures of risk and then it's nonsense risk comes from the nature of certain kinds of businesses it can be risky to be in some businesses just by the simple economics of the type of business you're in uh and and it comes from not knowing what you're doing it is if you understand the economics of the business in which you are and engaged and you and you know the people with whom you're doing business and you know the price you pay is sensible you don't run any real risk and I don't think Charlie and I Berkshire I don't think we've ever had permanent loss uh in marketable Securities that was what one percent maybe half a percent of net worth made a terrible mistake in buying Dexter's shoe which cost us significantly more than one percent of net worth where I bought an entire business then but I was wrong about the business it had nothing to do with the volatility of show prices or leather or anything else just was wrong but in terms of marketable Securities I I cannot recall a case where we've lost like I mean we've done a lot of things in Securities that had a very high beta we dealt a thing a lot of things in Securities at low beta it's just the whole development of volatility as a measure of risk we've never found a way for it to be useful to us it's the temperamental quality not an intellectual quality you don't need tons of IQ in this business I mean you have to have enough IQ to get from here to Downtown Omaha but uh but uh you do not have to be able to play three-dimensional chess or be in the top leagues in terms of bridge playing or something of the sort you need a stable personality you need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd because this is not a business where you take polls it's a business where you think and Ben Graham would say that you're not right or wrong because a thousand people agree with you and you're not right or wrong because a thousand people disagree with you you're right because your facts and your reasoning are right by far the best investment you can make is in yourself for example communication skills I tell those students they're going to graduate schools and business and they're learning all these complicated formulas all that if they just learn to communicate better and both in writing and in person they increase their value at least 50 percent can't communicate somebody who says you know it's like winking at a girl of the dark nothing happens you know basically and and you have to be able to get forth your ideas and that's relatively easy I did it myself with the Dale Carnegie of course some people wish I'd take it a shorter course now my answer is my talking later on but it it's just hugely important and you if you invest in yourself nobody can take it away from you I mean you if I gave you a car and it'll be the only car you get in the rest of your life you take care of it like you can't believe that any scratch you'd fix that moment you read the owner's manually you keep a garage and do all these things and you get exactly one mind to one and one body in this world and and you can't start taking care of it when you're 50.
by that time you'll rusted out if you haven't done anything so you should really make sure that you just remember that you just got one minded body to get through life with and to do the most with it yeah we think the best way to minimize risk is to think and the idea that you have you know you say I've got 60 in stocks and 40 in bonds and and then have a big announcement now we're moving it to 65.35 as some strategist or whatever they call them in Wall Street I mean that that has to be pure nonsense I mean 60 40 or 65 30.
it just doesn't make any sense what you ought to do is have your default position is always short-term instruments and whatever you see anything intelligent to do you should do it and you shouldn't be trying to match up with some goal like that I I found it entertaining I was just reading yesterday an article I think it was the about the two fellows at Google and and all of the problems they're going to have because they're each going to get a few billion dollars and I mean I want to send a sympathy card I almost went down a Hallmark store because this article went on they've got this this terrible problem and that terrible problem and they're going to need lawyers and they're going to need financially they don't need anybody those guys are smarter than the people that are coming to them and they do not have a big problem and and they're very capable of thinking it through themselves the people that have the problem are the people who want to sell their services to them and are going to have to convince them that they have a problem but uh so much of what you see when you talk about asset allocations I mean it's just merchandising it's a way to make you think that if you don't know how to determine whether it should be 60 40 or 65 35 that you need these people and you don't need them at all in investing I mean most of the profession tell you you're that you're going to get in great trouble unless you listen to them and sign up for their services they're good at selling but uh what my brother-in-law former brother-in-law that worked at the Stockyards used to say was it people would bring in cattle or something and I'd say to them you know how do you get the farmer to employ you to sell the Swift or armor or cudah hay instead of the guy right next to you I mean you know it's a cow is a cow and Armor's going to buy it the same way and he gave me this disgusted look and he said Warren it's not how you sell them it's how you tell them well there's a lot of that in Wall Street desire of people to gamble and they gamble in stocks incidentally too day trading I would say very often was came very close to gambling as defined uh but people people like to gamble you know I mean it's if the Super Bowl is on or even well the better yet if a terribly boring football game is on but you don't have anything to do you're sitting there with somebody else you're probably going to enjoy the game more if you bet a few bucks on it one way or the other the human propensity to gamble is is huge now when it was legalized only in pretty much in Nevada he had to go to some distance or break some laws to do any serious gambling but as the states learned to you know what a great source of of Revenue it was they gradually made it easier and easier and easier for people to gamble and believe me the easier it's made the more people will gamble I mean when I was my children are here and 40 years ago I bought a slot machine and I put it up on our third floor and I could give my kids any allowance they wanted as long as it was in dimes I mean I had it all back by Nightfall I thought I thought it would be a good lesson for him and now they weren't going to Las Vegas to do it but believe me when I was on the third floor they could find it you know and uh my payout ratio was terrible too but that's the kind of father I was uh the uh gambling you know people are always going to want to do it and uh for that reason I particularly think that to quite an extent gambling is a tax on ignorance I mean if you want to if you want to tax the the ignorant people who will do things with the odds against them you know you just put it in then guys like me don't have to pay taxes and I I really don't I find that I find it kind of socially revolting when a governor a government preys on the weaknesses of its citizenry rather than acts to serve them and and believe me when a government sticks like yeah but I really said the growth and value they're indistinguishable they're part of the same equation or really growth is part of the value equation our position is that there there is no such thing as as growth stocks or value stocks the way Wall Street generally portrays them as being contrasting asset classes growth usually is a positive for Value but only when it means that by adding Capital now you add more cash availability later on at a rate that's considerably higher than the current rate of of Interest so we calculate into any business we buy what we expect to have happen in terms of the cash that's going to come out of it or the cash that's going to go into it so if you tell me that that you own a business that's going to grow to the sky and isn't that wonderful I don't know whether it's wonderful or not until I know what what the economics are of of that growth how much you have to put in today and how much you will reap from putting that in today later on and the classic case again is the airline business the airline business has been a growth business ever since well you know that Orville took off but it's the growth has been the worst thing that happened to it been great for the American public but growth has been a curse in the in the airline business because more and more Capital has been put into the business at inadequate returns Now growth is wonderful it Sees Candy because it requires relatively little like incremental investment to sell more pounds of candy so it's growth and I've discussed this in some of the annual reports growth is a part of the equation but anybody that tells you you ought to have your money and growth stocks or value stocks uh really does not understand investing other than that they're terrific people but you know the real point is that we're trying to put out Capital now to get more capital or money we're trying to put on cash now to get more cash back later on and if you do that the business grows obviously and you can call that value or you can call it growth but they're not two different categories and uh I just cringe when I when I hear people talk about now it's time to move from growth stocks to value stocks or something like that because it just doesn't make any sense in in general terms unless you find the the prices of a great company really offensive if you if you feel you've identified it and by definition a great company is one that's going to remain great for 30 years if it's going to be great a great company for three years you know it ain't a great company I mean it uh so you really want to go along with the uh the ID of something that if you were going to take a trip for 20 years you wouldn't feel bad leaving leaving uh the money in with no orders with your broker and no power of attorney or anything and you just go on the trip and you know you come back and it's going to be a terribly strong company uh I think it's better just to own them I mean you know we could we could attempt to buy and sell some of the things that we own that we think are fine businesses but they're too hard to find we found See's Candy in 1972 where we find here and there we get the opportunity to do something but they're too hard to find so to to sit there and hope that you buy them in the in the throes of some panic you know that you'd sort of take the attitude of a mortician you know waiting for a flu epidemic or something I mean it it I'm not sure that's a will be a great technique but that's that's a lot to count on and you know if you start with the Dow at X and you're and you're you think it's too high you know when it goes to 90 of X do you buy well if it doesn't it goes to 50 of X it gets uh you know you never get the benefit of those extremes anyway unless you just come into some accidental sum of money at some time so I I think the main thing to do is find wonderful businesses so we've had our share of flu epidemics but uh you don't want to spend your life waiting around for them
Comments 0