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hope you're well so I want to give you a very quick update on the situation with Tesla stock so we'll have a look at the Tesla and see what the chart here is telling us likely on guessing the recent breakout all right guys join me alright guys welcome back so before we dig into the chart of Tesla there's a lot of things I want to show you here on this particular chart and also where potentially we may be going so I'll take a look in a few minutes before we do that though let me just give you a quick recap of what I said in my previous video on the 17th of May and this is a screenshot so I paused my video from the 17th of May so I'm going to show you this and all I said in that video was very simply was we need to see a breakout to increase the probability and confirm the view that the C wave of this ABC correction has bottomed that's all I was waiting for so essentially this is the level I pointed out here at about 180 and this regression channel in fact what I'll do for you is let me just play for a short clip a very brief clip of my video from a few weeks ago and we'll come back I actually think the odds are increasing that Tesla is likely bottoming and the C wave of this ABC correction all I'm waiting for is that final confirmation break a I want to see this level break this level I just mentioned about 170 780 once we get a break and a close about these levels here that actually could significantly increase the likelihood that uh Tesla has bottomed here and we could start the next major wave higher all right guys welcome back now I don't want to repeat everything I said in that video but all I want to point out here is this the reason I was waiting for a breakout to confirm my view was because there was a risk there's always a risk the c-wave May potentially extend a bit lower and make a lower low into this region here but I needed the confirmation above the regression channel to give us the higher probability okay so here's the chart of Tesla and as you can see here Tesla finally gave us that breakout you see right there above the 180 177 region there that's the that's the candle bar that broke 180 and that was all we needed to give us the extra confirmation extra degree of probability that the C wave of this correction has likely bottomed again as I mentioned this is a likely a wave for those of you follow Elliott wave's Theory a wave B wave C wave so in my view once we took out once Tesla took out that resistance at the regression Channel resistance above 180 that was all we needed to give us the increasing probability that the ABC correction was the C wave of this correction has likely bottomed and we're starting the next major wave up and by the way as you may recall in that previous video I mentioned that it's quite likely this is a likely wave one a larger degree wave one the C wave of a wave two the larger degree wave two and this is likely beginning the larger degree wave three with much higher levels to come so that's my view from an Elliott wave perspective in other words the long-term bullish perspective because of what I'm seeing in the technology sector we've broken above resistance as you see here above 180 let me just show you so we've broken that 180 level resistance beautiful above the regression Channel and we've now also taken out this trend line another trend line resistance taken out here as well so in other words keeping it simple resistance is now support okay so that means Tesla must protect this is very important but by far the most important part of the video is this part if Tesla is going to show to us and prove to us that we're in a wave three of an uptrend that it must stay above 193 and I'm repeating this point okay but that's because it's so important it must take about this trend line this yellow line and above this 21 EMA the 21 daily moving average which is now 190 3 and above this level is yellow level that you see this dotted line 193.
as long as Tesla stays above this then I can maintain the higher probability base case expectation that yeah we're going to go higher to our next upside targets so I'm maintaining a bullish perspective as long as we say about that and the reason is a break below 193 which I'm not expecting not expecting a break below 193 but if that happens it would increase downside risk towards the lows of April but again I see there's a lower probability I'm looking for higher levels to come in Tesla so let me show you this chart now all I want to say now I want to keep this short and brief notice the next resistance Levels by the way I want to get rid of this regression Channel we don't need this anymore I'm looking at a logarithmic chart of Tesla here and again my projections and my again the Fibonacci levels I'm looking at here on the chart are all logarithmic Fibonacci levels because with some with some charts like especially with volatile stocks and markets um like crypto and Tesla things like this logarithmic levels make more sense so take a look over here and notice Tesla is coming to some important levels of resistance as you see here and by the way one more thing before I forget Tesla is also getting a bit overbought notice that the RSI 21 setting up RSI is now overbought okay now that does not necessarily mean it's going to collapse no but it does give us a warning that this is getting a bit overextended and overbought here so the the risk of a pullback is now increasing and I think I'm going to show you the levels where I think we might see a pullback although the pullback may start sooner but my point is that this is a we also we always have to pay attention to the risk levels like for example when RSI becomes overbought like this for example notice that when R when RSI became oversold here and I warned about this you may remember you may recall back in I think it was January or December of last year so notice when when Tesla became extremely oversold you see this here I warned about this okay because it came so oversold and in fact it was a record oversold region okay at that point that there was a high risk of a reversal of a of a sudden bounce okay the same thing is happening now we are now seeing overbought conditions on Tesla with RSI 21 setting now as you can see above it's going above that region there above 70 I think it is and well it doesn't mean the Tesla has to collapse but it does mean the risk of a pullback is now increasing okay but here's something else I need to mention here if it's correct if it is correct that we're in a Wave 3 of an uptrend there is something we need to appreciate that often in a wave three if this is for example one two and three the three the Third Way of pushing higher okay if this is a wave three usually in a Wave 3 the pullbacks are shallow in other words the pullbacks usually are not very deep sometimes in a Wave 3 pullbacks they just go back to retrace back to the 21 moving average on the daily chart by the way before I forget notice how beautifully this was a hundred percent projection have a look at this if you measure if you measure this initial drop and I mentioned this in my previous video by the way in I think it was in May this initial drop which was the likely a wave was symmetrical with this drop down here with this move down here that's a the stash the magenta line was the 100 projection by the way okay so beautifully a nice again as I mentioned before a nice a way B wave C wave and usually a waves and C waves are equal in length typically symmetrical so what are the next projections what are the next likely targets for Tesla well as I mentioned as long as Tesla can maintain above 210 near support then I think we could see the momentum continue pushing higher to these levels okay uh by the way the reason I mentioned 210 is because if we were to break 210 it means we might see a pullback before we get to those levels so I do think I think it's more likely that we're going to get to these levels anyway okay my upside targets are between 242 to 250.
all I'm saying is that as long as Tesla stays above 210 approximately this region here okay I think the momentum and the path of least resistance stays with the bulls for now for us to test this region here in the next uh probably the next few weeks between 240 to 250 and I'll show you there's another Target above this as well but what I'm saying is if if Tesla were to break 210 then we'll probably then probably we're going to see a pullback to this region before we go up to those levels that's the reason I mentioned 210.
so I'm always trying to examine where the risk is located so bottom line is I think that this is the level we're going to test next this Zone okay I'm never I'm never looking at just one line in the chart I'm looking at a Zone the first resistance by the way is the Brown Line you're seeing here that's 234 that's the 2.618 extension of the initial waves one and two here and our next projection if you zoom out and let me show you okay so if you were first of all if you were to measure this entire decline from the highs we made in 2021 to the lows we made in 2023 then the 61.8 retracement is that red line you see on the chart that's about 242.
okay that's the logarithmic golden ratio 61. retracement okay and that's not all so apart apart from that there is also as you can see a magenta line on my chart or a purple line and that's if you were to measure uh this decline I believe I've measured it from here so if you measure this decline here then that purple line gives you the 78.6 Fibonacci retracement at about 200 and 246 I think it says yeah so this region and by the way 250 is the psychological resistance so 93 okay again remember 193 is the key support key support it must stay above that to maintain the bullish perspective as long as we stay above key support of 193 I think eventually we're heading towards this region between 242 to 250 I'm sorry if I'm repeating this point here but it is important because that's an important critical resistance at about this region I think at that point we could see a pullback by pullback all I mean is we could come back like from this region we might come back and test prior highs this level here or this level here or even the 21 EMA the 21 EMA is going to catch up with the price by the way that's the Blue Line you see in my chart that's the 21 EMA so watch that because if we see a pullback then it might test that 21 EMA which remember that it's a moving average so this blue line is going to catch up with the price it's not going to stay still so this blue line as you know is going to keep moving this is going to keep moving up and up and up and it's going to catch up with the price okay so bottom line is yeah I think that's that's where we're ultimately going uh in the 250 242 region here but if Tesla does not pull back from this region of this Regional resistance in other words if it just pushes through if it pushes through above a 250 origin here that means it may extend to the next level of resistance in this region that you're seeing here 275 to 268.
268 in case you're wondering that is the non logarithmic symmetrical projection whereas if you measure this initial rally and you're projected from this low the standard non-logarithmic or linear extension would give us 268 okay that's symmetrically to that level 268 and 275 is a psychological uh resistance level there okay so in other words keeping it simple uh that's where I'm ultimately seeing Tesla going in the next few weeks assuming it does not pull back immediately but that's where I think is likely going as long as we stay above again keeping it simple as long as Tesla stays about 193 key support a very important level it must protect to keep the Bulls in control and keep the momentum and the trend to the upside then I think it's more likely we're going to test this region 242 to 250 if Tesla pushes above a 250 region here with strong force then it may extend to the next upside projection 275 to 68 and again remember that's only as long as we stay above 193.
all right guys what we have here on the charts thank you very much indeed bye for now foreign
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